After CL exit: Will the Super-GAU follow for Atlético?
No showdown for the round of 16 ticket – with Club Brugge and FC Porto, two teams in Group B have already qualified early for the round of 16 of the 2022/23 Champions League – which will be played in Qatar after the 2022 World Cup, mind you. Nonetheless, the last group game still holds great significance for the FCP.
With group victory, the Portuguese can possibly avoid a hammer draw in the knockout phase. Opponents Atlético Madrid, on the other hand, will at least be looking to underpin their third-place finish and thus continue their international adventure in the Europa League. However, betting on the Spaniards in FC Porto vs. Atletico Madrid is risky.
The Madrilenians are not in the best of shape at the moment and have already lost their league match against 19th-placed Cadiz CF. It would therefore be all the more surprising if, after the bitter defeat in La Liga, they were to overcome the difficult hurdle of CL group rivals FC Porto.
In the first leg, Atlético won 2-1 against FC Porto in an eventful final period. All three goals came in stoppage time – including Griezmann’s last-minute goal for a 2-1 final score.
Porto – Statistics & current form
The Champions League is currently the consolation prize for FC Porto. After two bitter setbacks in the league, the gap in the championship race had already increased to eight points. On the other hand, FCP booked their ticket to the last 16 of the Champions League last week – with a bit of help from the referees, mind you.
While the “Azuis e brancos” celebrated a 4:0 victory at Club Brugge, their Spanish rivals only took a point against Leverkusen. This means that FCP are already unassailable in second place in Group B before the showdown against Atlético Madrid. In the last group game, the only thing that matters is winning the group.
FC Porto have only won two of their eleven matches against Madrid on the international stage. If FCP can improve on that and win the upcoming match, odds of 2.50 are paid on the Portuguese host to win the FC Porto vs Atletico Madrid match.
Will FCP make the most of home advantage against Atlético?
The Blue and Whites have won five out of a total of seven competitive matches at home this season. Only against Club Brugge (0:4) and Benfica (0:1) did the FCP remain winless in their own fortress, but there were clear victories against teams like Leverkusen (2:0), Braga (4:1) and Sporting Lisbon (3:0).
The Portuguese’s strong offensive remains their showpiece. With 23 goals, FCP already has one of the strongest attacking divisions in the league. In the top flight as well. In Group B, FCP have even scored more goals than the group leaders from Bruges.
It is therefore not out of the question that FC Porto, after three wins in a row in Group B, will also master the match against the stumbling Madrilenians. FCP coach Conceicao will be without four players for the upcoming encounter against Atlético Madrid, including Carmo and Uribe, who are both suspended with yellow cards.
Porto’s probable line-up:
Costa; Aquino, Cardoso, Marcano, Sanusi; Otavio, Costa, Eustaquio; Evanilson, Taremi, Galeno
Last matches played by Porto:
Liga Portugal
29/10/2022 – Santa Clara 1 – 1 FC Porto
Champions League Grp. B
26/10/2022 – Club Brugge 0 – 4 FC Porto
Liga Portugal
22/10/2022 – FC Porto 0 – 1 Benfica
Cup
17/10/2022 – Anadia 0 – 6 FC Porto
Champions League Grp. B
13/10/2022 – Bayer Leverkusen 0 – 3 FC Porto
Atletico Madrid – Statistics & current form
Atlético Madrid were defeated by Bayer Leverkusen in their final group game, blowing any chance of reaching the last 16 of the top flight. In the final phase, Yannick Carasco even missed a controversial penalty for the “Colchoneros”. In the last group match, the Madrilenians will now fight for third place.
This means that the international adventure can at least continue in the Europa League. Considering how weak head coach Simeone’s team was against Cadiz CF last week, the next setback for Atleti cannot be ruled out. Especially as Atlético Madrid have only won three of their last seven games away from home.
However, the recent record at FCP is encouraging: Atlético Madrid have won their last two matches in the Portuguese fortress. The last time was in December 2021, when the Madrilenians celebrated a 3-1 win at FC Porto.
No sign of the defensive bulwark
The failure in the current season is mainly due to the lack of stability in the defensive play. In recent years, Atleti’s defensive bulwark was, after all, one of the big factors in their success. Therefore, this season’s performance was all the more surprising. In the last four competitive games, the Colchoneros’ goal line has rung seven times.
It is quite possible that this negative trend will continue against the high-calibre Portuguese attack. Since the successful group opener against FCP, Atleti have gone winless in Group B four times in a row. It also remains to be seen what changes Simeone will dare to make after the bitter setbacks on the international and national stage.
With Koke, Lemar, Llorente and Morata, the Argentine will be without four players this weekend due to injury.
Predicted line-up of Atletico Madrid:
Oblak; Savic, Gimenez, Reinildo; Molina, De Paul, Kondogbia, Witsel, Carrasco; Griezmann, Felix
Last matches played by Atletico Madrid:
La Liga
29/10/2022 – Cadiz 3 – 2 Atletico Madrid
Champions League Grp. B
27/10/2022 – Atletico Madrid 2 – 2 Bayer Leverkusen
La Liga
23/10/2022 – Real Betis 1 – 2 Atletico Madrid
19/10/2022 – Atletico Madrid 1 – 1 Rayo Vallecano
16/10/2022 – Athletic Bilbao 0 – 1 Atletico Madrid
Porto – Atletico Madrid Direct comparison / H2H record
In the last eleven meetings between the two clubs, Atlético Madrid lead the direct comparison against FC Porto with a record of 5-4-2. The Madrilenians celebrated one of these five victories in the group opener of this year’s top flight. Atlético Madrid won 2-1 against the Portuguese side. Since then, however, there has been no more victory in the group.
FC Porto have lost their last two home games against Atleti. Before that, FCP remained unbeaten against the Madrilenians on two consecutive occasions in front of a home crowd. In the last two CL duels between Porto vs. Atletico Madrid, a prediction of Over 2.5 goals in the match paid off.
Porto – Atletico Madrid Tip
FC Porto booked their place in the last 16 of the 2022/23 Champions League with a shootout win last week. While FC Porto won at FC Brugge, their group rivals from Madrid dropped important points in their match against Leverkusen. Mathematically, Atlético only have a chance to finish the group in third place.
This means that Simeone’s team can continue their international adventure in the Europa League. However, FCP will by no means be a points supplier on the last matchday of the CL group stage. With a win, the Portuguese side can still secure group victory in the best possible scenario.
As in the first leg, we expect a match of equals between FCP and Atleti. The Portuguese are currently in much better shape than their group rivals from Spain, so the slight favourite role is also understandable.
Nevertheless, bets on the 1X2 market are associated with a lot of risk. After all, Atlético Madrid remains difficult to assess and recently lost their league match against Cadiz, who are second from last in the table. We therefore dare to bet on Porto vs. Atletico Madrid at reasonable odds on more goals in the 2nd half. Bets on this already paid off in the first leg. We are using five units.
