Does Messi prevent the preliminary round knockout?
Calculators out – on the last preliminary round matchday of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, the question of who will reach the last 16 is still unresolved in many groups. In Group C, all four teams still have a chance of advancing, and three teams still have a chance of winning the group. This will almost certainly be determined by the clash between Robert Lewandowski and Lionel Messi. Between Poland and Argentina, a bet on the South Americans is the most likely outcome, with betting odds of just under 1.50.
Prior to the head-to-head clash, the Poles lead the table with four points (and no goals conceded), while Argentina have redeemed themselves for their embarrassing opening defeat and now have progress in their own hands again. Victory would almost be tantamount to winning the group – and depending on the outcome of the parallel match, Poland could even afford to lose and still reach the last 16 for the first time since 1986. Due to the starting situation, Poland will focus on defence. In this respect, the prediction of a game without many scoring opportunities between Poland and Argentina is quite obvious.
Mexico and Saudi Arabia face each other in the parallel match. Although the Mexicans are still winless, El Tri is considered the clear favourite. Should Messi & Co live up to their role as favourites and win, Mexico would not only have to win, but at least make up four goals on Poland.
Poland – statistics & current form
Polish football has a successful past, after all, the national team finished an excellent third in both 1974 and 1982 World Cups. Despite the outstanding qualities of Robert Lewandowski, the Bialo-Czerwoni (the White-Red) are now miles away from such successes. Participation in the World Cup is already a success; the last time they reached the last 16 was in Mexico in 1986.
Talking of Mexico: The opening match was against El Tri and Robert Lewandowski’s nerves failed him from the ominous spot. His miss prevented early qualification for the knockout phase. So now it’s shaky times and head coach Czeslaw Michniewicz’s team will do everything they can to hold on to the goalless draw for as long as possible.
No goal conceded for Wojciech Szczesny
2018 in Russia, Poland lost to Senegal and Colombia in their opener and were already eliminated after two games. At least there was a 1-0 win against the Japanese selection at the end. Together with the game against the Blue Samurai and the first two appearances in Qatar in 2022, Poland’s defence has now gone three consecutive World Cup games without conceding a goal. History could be made on Wednesday as Poland have never gone four consecutive World Cup matches without conceding a goal.
The team is led by Robert Lewandowski, one of the best strikers in the world (136 caps, 77 goals), but under head coach Michniewicz (in charge since the beginning of the year) the attack is not the showpiece. In the eleven international matches played so far in 2022, just twelve goals have been scored, which can be attributed to the very wait-and-see style of play. They have conceded a total of 13 goals in this period, with six of them raining down in the heavy 1:6 Nations League defeat against Belgium.
The Poles place a lot of emphasis on defence anyway and will probably form a defensive block similar to the one Mexico tried against the Gauchos due to the situation that a draw means a fixed progression. For a long time, Argentina had great difficulty in becoming dangerous. A very likely scenario where a draw at half-time sounds interesting.
Predicted line-up of Poland:
Szczesny – Bereszynski, Kiwior, Glik, Cash – Frankowski, Krychowiak, Bielik, Zielinski – Milik, Lewandowski
Last matches played by Poland:
World Cup Group C
26/11/2022 – Poland 2 – 0 Saudi Arabia
22/11/2022 – Mexico 0 – 0 Poland
Friendlies
16/11/2022 – Poland 1 – 0 Chile
UEFA Nations League A Grp. 4
26/09/2022 – Wales 0 – 1 Poland
23/09/2022 – Poland 0 – 2 Netherlands
Argentina – Statistics & current form
Robert Lewandowski’s first World Cup goal (the 2-0 win over the Saudis) was a huge weight off his mind, and he almost had tears in his eyes as he cheered. Probably even bigger was the backpack that Lionel Messi was able to take off after his long-range goal. La Pulga” had to put up with mockery and ridicule after the embarrassing 1:2 against Saudi Arabia, but was able to bring his homeland back to life.
Always Messi again
Only with the World Cup title could Lionel Messi silence his critics back home. In the run-up to the World Cup, the hopes were certainly justified, after all, Argentina did not lose any of the last 36 international matches. After the embarrassment against the no-name team Saudi Arabia, the World Cup title was no longer an issue. They did their homework against Mexico, but the Albiceleste did not shine at all.
Despite a lot of possession, Argentina only managed to get off the first shot in the 40th minute. All in all, the game was tough fare for the neutral fan, as nine shots (Argentina five, Mexico four) were the fewest since accurate data recording began (World Cup 1966). In the end, however, no one is asking how the victory came about, and the three points ensure that Argentina can once again look positively ahead. Lionel Messi redeemed his homeland by scoring in his sixth international match in a row and now has eight World Cup goals to his name. He is now on a par with Diego Armando Maradonna; only Gabriel Batistuta has scored more often at World Cups (ten).
There is still a lot of room for improvement, but this is not to be expected against Poland. Argentina has big problems against deep opponents and needs the individual class of Messi, Di Maria, Martinez & Co. This is given and accordingly between Poland and Argentina the bet on the Gauchos is justifiable. In addition, the Albiceleste won the last group game in 2010, 2014 and 2018.
Predicted line-up of Argentina:
Martinez – Acuna, Lisandro Martinez, Otamendi, Molina – Mac Allister, Enzo Fernandez, de Paul, Di Maria – Messi, Lautaro Martinez
Last matches played by Argentina:
World Cup Group C
27/11/2022 – Argentina 2 – 0 Mexico
22/11/2022 – Argentina 1 – 2 Saudi Arabia
Friendly matches
16/11/2022 – United Arab Emirates 0 – 5 Argentina
28/09/2022 – Argentina 3 – 0 Jamaica
24/09/2022 – Argentina 3 – 0 Honduras
Poland – Argentina Direct comparison / H2H balance
There are eleven matches between the two national teams in the database so far. There have already been two World Cup clashes between the two teams. In 1974, Poland celebrated a 3-2 victory over the South Americans in Germany, who took revenge four years later with a 2-0 win on home soil.
Of course, these duels are not a yardstick for the game in 2022, and this also applies to the nine other friendly matches. These were played between 1966 and 2011. In June 2011, Poland managed a 2-1 victory against a B team from Argentina. Then as now, Wojciech Szczesny and Robert Lewandowski were in action for Poland.
Poland – Argentina tip
Lewandowski against Messi – with these two outstanding footballers, it is easy to suspect that the prediction between Poland and Argentina is for many goals. However, this is not the case, because in this match it is mainly the defence that will determine the game. Poland did not concede a goal in their first two World Cup matches and would be more than satisfied with a goalless draw, which would mean a place in the last 16.
Argentina have failed to shine in their first two appearances, surprisingly lacking ideas and creating few good chances. The pressure on Messi & Co’s shoulders remains high, because a preliminary round exit would be the next embarrassment. An offensive fireworks display is therefore not to be expected, resulting in the prediction between Poland and Argentina on our three top tips listed above. A draw at half-time seems to be the best option with the odds on offer. Five units are chosen as the stake. Otherwise, the under 2.5 and the bet that not both teams will score are to be considered.
