Will Ecuador punch their World Cup ticket early?
When asked which national football team on the South American continent has shown the most positive development in recent years, ‘Peru’ is without doubt one of the most frequently mentioned answers. For the first time since the late 1970s or early 1980s, the Peruvians could qualify for a World Cup finals for the second time in a row. However, there are still some difficult hurdles to overcome on the way to Qatar.
In the night from Tuesday to Wednesday, for example, “La Rojiblanca” will face third-placed Ecuador, who currently have the best chance of becoming the third CONMEBOL team after Brazil and Argentina to punch their ticket to the World Cup at the end of the year. The fact that Peru is still slightly favoured against Ecuador according to the odds shows the new perception of the home side also among the bookmakers.
But because a three-way bet at this stage of the World Cup qualifiers is traditionally associated with a lot of risk, we also devote our look between Peru and Ecuador to the forecast that rather few goals will be scored. Both teams want to do everything in their power to avoid leaving the pitch as losers. The logical consequence could be a low-scoring match or a peaceful draw after 90 minutes, which would help the visitors more.
Peru – Statistics & current form
After twelve matchdays, Peru were still five points behind fourth place in penultimate position in South American World Cup qualifying. However, the 2018 World Cup participants took the maximum nine points from their next three matches and the team of the successful Argentine coach Ricardo Gareca has now moved up to fourth place. As things stand, the 22nd-ranked team in the world would therefore be in Qatar.
But “La Rojiblanca” cannot rest on their laurels, because with only a one-point lead over the relegation zone and three points more than the sixth-placed team, there are many signs of an exciting final spurt in the CONMEBOL zone.
However, the momentum is definitely in favour of the 2019 Copa America finalists, who landed a 1-0 statement win in Colombia a few days ago, once again impressing with terrific efficiency. In general, the 16 goals scored are a clear indication that betting on a maximum of two goals in the course of the match also offers attractive value in the Peru vs Ecuador clash.
Moreover, the statistics show that in nine of the 15 Peruvian matches played in the World Cup qualifiers, betting on the under 2.5 would have been crowned with success. One of the reasons why we prefer the under bet to a recommendation on a win for the hosts is the poor record at the home stadium in Lima. Only three of the seven games there were victorious. Only Paraguay has scored less often at home.
To make matters worse, two important players, Aldo Corzo and Christian Cueva, will be suspended on Tuesday night due to their second yellow cards. Pedro Aquino and probably also Sergio Pena, who had to be substituted against Colombia, will also be absent. Boca Juniors’ Luis Advincula is available again and could immediately slide into the first eleven.
Predicted line-up of Peru:
Gallese; Advincula, Zambrano, Callens, Trauco; Tapia; Carrillo, Yotun, Gonzales, Flores; Lapadula
Last matches played by Peru:
World Cup – CONMEBOL qualifiers
01/28 2022 – Colombia 0 – 1 Peru
Friendly match
01/21 2022 – Peru 3 – 0 Jamaica
01/16 2022 – Peru 1 – 1 Panama
World Cup – CONMEBOL Qualifiers
11/16 2021 – Venezuela 1 – 2 Peru
11/12 2021 – Peru 3 – 0 Bolivia
Ecuador – Statistics & current form
Similarly to their opponents from Peru, the Ecuadorian national team can also be seen as a positive surprise so far. Many experts would certainly have had other teams in mind behind the top favourites from Brazil and Argentina and not necessarily “El Tri”. This makes their performance so far all the more positive.
Thanks to a very strong home record of five wins, two draws and only one defeat, Gustavo Alfaro’s team is currently in third place and could possibly punch its ticket to Qatar 2022 in Lima. Should Peru and Ecuador win the match and Uruguay lose at home to Venezuela, they would already be qualified two matchdays before the end of the tournament.
Defence is the trump card for “El Tri “
But anyone who thinks that “El Tri” will therefore play lively and risky forwards is probably mistaken. In the qualifying process so far, it was above all the work against the ball that distinguished the third-placed team. Behind Brazil and Argentina, they have the third-best defence in South America. On average, they conceded exactly one goal per match. In six of the past nine matches, the Ecuadorians even kept their clean sheet.
Apart from that, the number 46 in the world ranking list was also convincing a few days ago in the home match against the Brazilians, which ended with a more than respectable 1-1 draw. It was already the eighth sub-par match from the past eleven qualifying matches, which again can be used as a strong argument when it comes to justifying the odds on a maximum of two goals in the match between Peru and Ecuador.
Finally, it should be mentioned that the visitors will also have to do without one or two key players. Long-time captain and Turkey pro Enner Valencia, for example, is suspended, as is veteran goalkeeper Dominguez. Considering the starting position, coach Alfaro would certainly be content with a point.
Predicted line-up of Ecuador:
Galindez; An. Preciado, Torres, Hincapie, Estupinan; Caicedo, Gruezo, Franco; Plata, Estrada, Ay. Preciado
Last matches played by Ecuador:
World Cup – CONMEBOL Qualifiers
01/27 2022 – Ecuador 1 – 1 Brazil
Friendly match
12/05 2021 – El Salvador 1 – 1 Ecuador
World Cup – Qualifier CONMEBOL
11/17 2021 – Chile 0 – 2 Ecuador
11/11 2021 – Ecuador 1 – 0 Venezuela
Friendly
10/28 2021 – Mexico 2 – 3 Ecuador
Peru – Ecuador Direct Comparison / H2H Record
This is the 16th time the teams have faced each other in World Cup qualifying. With six wins, four draws and five defeats, the Ecuadorians have a very narrow lead here. The first leg, however, went 2-1 to the Peruvians, who have thus won the last four qualifying matches against their upcoming opponents. A good omen for the night from Tuesday to Wednesday?
Peru – Ecuador Tip
The last match of Matchday 16 in the South American World Cup qualifiers will take place in Lima on Tuesday night at 03:00. In the national stadium there it comes to the clash between Peru and Ecuador. The betting odds suggest a close duel between equals. However, the home side has a slight advantage, which is somewhat surprising given their average home record.
In our opinion, it therefore makes more sense to look towards a bet on the number of goals. Here, the under lends itself quite nicely, especially since Ecuador has the third-best defence in South American qualifying and both teams have often been part of so-called under matches.
In addition, it should not be forgotten that fourth and third in the table face each other. The supreme duty is therefore: No losing! So there is a lot to be said for few goals, and we would not rule out even a goalless draw in advance.
