Will Sevilla continue the upward trend?

While still in top flight action on Wednesday, they are in danger of falling to a relegation spot on Saturday. Although the table at the end of September does not yet have much significance, it does reflect the current situation of the reigning Europa League winners from Sevilla. The Andalusians are looking back on a disastrous start to the season and are hoping for the next success in Pamplona. The bookmakers are offering relatively even odds on the match between Osasuna and Sevilla in the three-way market, with a slight advantage for the home side.

An assessment that must be critically questioned. Last year, Jagoba Arrasate’s side were very successful at home and laid the foundations for a strong seventh place in the final table. This season, however, El Sadar has not been a good place to play, losing both home games. The Mendilibar eleven started the season with three defeats, but gained confidence after the international break. Qualitatively, the Mendilibar eleven is certainly stronger, which makes a prediction on the visitors in the match between Osasuna and Sevilla quite interesting.

According to last year’s experience, Osasuna is a team that scores very few goals. Recently, however, this thesis was disproved and also for the neutral spectator the games of the “Gorritxo” were very entertaining. This weekend’s match kicks off on Saturday afternoon at 4:15 p.m.

Osasuna – Statistics & current form

Last season, head coach Jagoba Arrasate’s team was undoubtedly the big surprise in the Spanish football top flight. They even managed to qualify for Europe, which they had to fight for in court. For a short time, Osasuna was expelled for attempted match-fixing in 2013/14, but CAS overturned this decision. Nevertheless, there was no appearance on the international stage for the Spaniards on Thursday, as the team failed to reach the play-offs against Club Brugge (total score 3:4).

Both home games were lost

With that, the full focus is now on the domestic championship, but a repeat of last year’s success would probably be an even bigger surprise. Although the core of the team could be kept together on the whole, soberly considered the team acted above the realistic possibilities in the previous year. Osasuna were particularly successful at home, with eleven home victories in 19 games. On the other hand, they only won four games away from home.

The first findings from the still young 2023/24 season, however, show a completely different picture. The Arrasate team has six points after five games, but all of them have come from away. There were away wins at Celta Vigo and the bats from Valencia. The other games against Athletic Bilbao, Barcelona (both at home) and most recently against Getafe (away) were lost.

In the last three league games, betting on an over 2.5 was the right decision. In the previous year, this was only the case in 14 of the 38 league games (37 per cent). Since the visitors from Andalusia have not been stingy with goals so far, the odds on another over 2.5 between Osasuna and Sevilla feel too high.

Predicted line-up of Osasuna:

Osasuna Pamplona (Expected line-up) 4-3-3

Sevilla – Statistics & current form

The current balancing act between European appearances and the disappointing situation in the domestic championship is not new territory for the red and white from Sevilla. Last season they finished eleventh, but in the meantime the spectre of relegation was undeniable. Compared to the previous year, Sevilla collected 21 points less, but managed to save the season with another triumph in the UEFA Europa League and thus still managed to qualify for the top class.

Sell-out stopped

The joy after the seventh Europa League triumph lasted only a short time, because shortly afterwards a mountain of debt worth millions became public. The CL revenue is of enormous importance in this respect and prevented a complete sell-out this summer. With the exception of goalkeeper Bono, who also moved to Saudi Arabia, the most important players were kept. Among the new arrivals, the return of the prodigal son, Sergio Ramos, deserves a mention. Despite his 37 years, he will play a central role at his youth club.

The quality in the squad is right, so the disastrous start to the season was all the more surprising. After three matchdays, there were just as many defeats on the books. In view of this negative series, the disappointment about the postponement of the match against Atletico Madrid (due to bad weather) on the fourth matchday was manageable. After the international break, there was not only the Ramos comeback, but also a liberating blow. In the crisis duel with UD Las Palmas, Sevilla celebrated a 1-0 victory thanks to a Lukebakio goal. After Marko Dmitrovic had to make no less than eight saves in the first three league games, the defence was finally able to boast a clean sheet again.

The Andalusians did not manage a win against French vice-champion RC Lens in their opening match in the top flight, but they were able to prolong their small upward trend with a 1-1 draw. The Mendilibar eleven is not in top form, but nevertheless the development in recent weeks is positive and therefore justifies a prediction on the visitors in Osasuna vs. Sevilla.

Predicted Sevilla line-up:

FC Sevilla (Expected line-up) 4-2-3-1

Osasuna – Sevilla Direct comparison / H2H balance

Following Osasuna’s LaLiga return (2019/20 season), there hasn’t been much to cheer about for the team from the world-renowned bullfighting city in matches against Sevilla FC. Between 2019/20 and 2021/22, Sevilla did not lose any of their six LaLiga encounters, coming out on top four times. The situation was completely different last season when Osasuna won both home and away games against the struggling top-flight club.

Osasuna – Sevilla Tip

The team from Pamplona was ranked ahead of the Andalusians last season, but this does not reflect the true balance of power. Sevilla continue to be one of the top teams in the league, although this was only seen internationally last season. The start of the 2023/24 season also went down the drain, but there has been an upward trend recently. The bookmakers see the visitors as underdogs in Osasuna vs. Sevilla, but we don’t want to confirm that.

The hosts have not yet shown their best side at home this season either, losing both home games. While there is a certain amount of risk involved, ultimately Osasuna and Sevilla have great value with odds of up to 3.00 on the visitors. We put four units on the bet here. If this is too risky for you, the “Draw No Bet 2” bet also offers more than double the stake.