Do the two teams neutralise each other in the first leg?
The two semi-final duels in the Spanish King’s Cup bring some explosive action. The El Clasico electrifies the masses, but the second game also features an explosive derby in the Basque Country. The first leg will be played in Pamplona on Wednesday evening. The local club Osasuna will welcome Athletic Bilbao, and betting on the home side is worth three times the amount.
In international football, Spanish founding member Athletic Bilbao clearly have more charisma, but being favourites at El Sadar Stadium on Wednesday night is something to be questioned. Bilbao’s recent performances have been largely disappointing, while Osasuna collect far more points at home than away. The prediction on sub-par goals tends to be more interesting for Osasuna against Athletic Bilbao.
Neither team will want to take too many risks yet, as this goes against their own philosophy and the second leg is still scheduled for early April. The first leg in Pamplona will kick off on Wednesday at 9 pm.
Osasuna – Statistics & current form
Fame does not come to Pamplona through football, but the critically regarded bullfights are held in the city in the Basque Country. Many fans are not even aware that the home of Osasuna is the city of Pamplona. However, the club has always left its mark in the highest Spanish league. Thanks to head coach Jagoba Arrasate, the team has been playing in the first division again since the 2019/20 season. In the process, the club cuts a good figure and has found itself in the midfield of the league in each of the last three years.
Champagne or seltzer at El Sadar
This season has been Osasuna’s best yet in the 21st century. The current 29 points from 22 games are the highest points haul in the last ten LaLiga years. As eighth in the table, even the international starting positions are within reach. The cup competition represents a second opportunity to get a taste of international air next year.
The Arrasate team wants to lay the foundation for a historic final appearance on Wednesday. The game is unlikely to be pretty to watch, as Osasuna are a team that is stingy with goals. On average, they have scored 1.96 goals per game in LaLiga this season, the lowest figure. In this respect, between Osasuna and Athletic Bilbao, even the under 1.5 prediction seems to be an interesting option. So far, no match at El Sadar 2022/23 has ended in a draw. Six home wins are offset by five defeats.
Predicted line-up of Osasuna:
Fernandez – Cruz, Garcia, Hernandez, Moreno – Oroz, Ibanez, Brasanac, Barja, Garcia, Moncayola
Last matches played by Osasuna:
La Liga
27/02/2023 – Sevilla FC 2 – 3 Osasuna Pamplona
19/02/2023 – Osasuna Pamplona 0 – 2 Real Madrid
13/02/2023 – Real Valladolid 0 – 0 Osasuna Pamplona
04/02/2023 – Espanyol 1 – 1 Osasuna Pamplona
29/01/2023 – Osasuna Pamplona 0 – 1 Atletico Madrid
Athletic Bilbao – Statistics & current form
Just before the cup duel, Athletic Bilbao had to let their Basque rivals from Pamplona pass them in the table. Ernesto Valverde’s side suffered a 3-2 defeat at home to Girona FC and slipped to ninth in the table. The founding members of the Spanish league have suffered a number of setbacks in recent weeks and are moving closer and closer to irrelevance in the table.
Injury worries in the Basque camp
At the beginning of February, the Valverde eleven seemed to take a step out of the crisis when they managed to win against relegation candidates Cadiz and Valencia. It was the first victory after five winless games en suite, but this brief flight of fancy was quickly halted. Before the Girona game, they had already lost the game against the Rojiblancos. In total, Athletic Bilbao have lost five of their last seven LaLiga games.
As 24-time Spanish Cup winners, Athletic Bilbao can definitely be called cup specialists and bookmakers are offering lower odds between Osasuna and Athletic Bilbao for the Valverde eleven to reach the final. After the recent setbacks, even a draw would probably be a useful result for the visitors, who have some personnel problems to lament.
In the 2:3 against Girona, the Spanish team goalkeeper Unai Simon had to be substituted due to injury. He is not expected to play in Pamplona. The same applies to Inigo Martinez, Nico Williams and the veterans Raul Garcia and Ander Herrera, who are all in danger of dropping out. This means a lot of quality will be lost in the visitors’ camp.
Predicted line-up of Athletic Bilbao:
Agirrezabala – Bechiche, Paredes, Alvarez, Capa – Sancet, Vesga – Berenguer, Muniain, I. Williams – Guruzeta
Last matches played by Athletic Bilbao:
La Liga
26/02/2023 – Athletic Bilbao 2 – 3 Girona
20/02/2023 – Atletico Madrid 1 – 0 Athletic Bilbao
12/02/2023 – Valencia 1 – 2 Athletic Bilbao
04/02/2023 – Athletic Bilbao 4 – 1 Cadiz
30/01/2023 – Celta Vigo 1 – 0 Athletic Bilbao
Osasuna – Athletic Bilbao Direct comparison / H2H record
The only previous meeting in the Spanish King’s Cup took place in the 2008/09 season. At that time, the round of 16 was also played in a first and second leg, with the Basques coming out on top with an aggregate score of 3:1.
Far more relevant for the first leg on Wednesday are the recent duels in the domestic championship. After their return to La Liga, Osasuna won two of their first three games with Bilbao, but most recently they have failed to win four in a row. The last meeting dates back to 9 January, a goalless draw in Bilbao.
Osasuna – Athletic Bilbao Tip
For the home side, there is a historic chance to reach the Copa del Rey final for the second time this year after 2005. Against their local rivals, the team from Pamplona is by no means an underdog without a chance. The role of favourites in favour of the 24-time cup winners is understandable, but there is no value in betting on the visitors between Osasuna and Athletic Bilbao on Wednesday.
The recent performances of Valverde’s eleven do not justify odds of just 2.40. Especially since Osasuna made a splash with an away win at recently up-and-coming Sevilla FC and are generally in better shape. In addition, the home advantage should not be completely disregarded. The tendency goes in the direction of the home side, but even more interesting are the odds on Osasuna against Athletic Bilbao with a forecast of 1.5. Risky at first glance, but the league duel a few weeks ago showed that both teams are very destructive. In a cup semi-final first leg, even less risk is to be expected, so betting on a maximum of one goal is very interesting.
