Will Nottingham ensure a title-less season for City?

In recent decades, the FA Cup has mostly been in the hands of the top five teams in England. In fact, looking back at the last 29 editions of the world’s oldest cup competition, Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool, Arsenal, or Chelsea have won the overall title in 26 cases. In 2024/25, the Citizens are the only Big Five team left in the FA Cup semifinals.

For Pep Guardiola and his star ensemble, the trip to the East Midlands is about keeping alive their hopes of at least one title win this season. The home side, who are having a fabulous season in the league and can still dream of Champions League qualification, have no reason to be intimidated, however. After all, the Tricky Trees won the last meeting against last year’s champions 1-0 at the beginning of March. For Sunday’s FA Cup semi-final between Nottingham and Manchester City, however, the bookmakers with German licenses are clearly favoring the Cityzens.

As already mentioned, don’t be blinded by the fact that Forest are listed as the home team, as the eagerly awaited knockout match will take place at Wembley Stadium in London. After all, the three-way market before kick-off between Nottingham and Manchester City is offering odds of 1.75 on the favorites to win.

Nottingham – Statistics & current form

Nottingham Forest Football Club is undoubtedly the discovery of the current Premier League season. The team, led by Portuguese head coach Nuno Espirito Santo, almost dropped out of the top flight of English soccer last year, but has since established itself as one of the top teams on the island, thanks in part to some good transfers in the summer of 2024. With five games to go before the end of the season, the Tricky Trees are still in fourth place and, with a three-point lead over sixth place, are in a really promising position in the race for the five Champions League spots up for grabs.

Nottingham has lost some momentum recently

Although it is complaining on a high level given the season’s goal and the outstanding performances so far, it must be said that Forest has lost some momentum recently. Looking back on the last nine PL matches, there have been four wins. However, there have also been four defeats, including against Everton, Fulham, and Newcastle United. At least the dress rehearsal for the FA Cup semi-final on Easter Monday ended in victory. The Garibaldi Reds won 2-1 at Tottenham.

Espirito Santo’s team also has a real penchant for close games in England’s most important cup competition. Only the first match against Luton Town was won in regular time. In the following three games against Exeter City, Ipswich Town and, most recently, Brighton, the former English champions always needed penalties to secure their place in the next round.

If you also want to bet on Sunday that there will be no decision after 90 and 120 minutes, you can get odds of 6.60 on Nottingham and Manchester City in the Betano app. Given the high risk, it’s also a good idea to take advantage of the €20 Betano free bet. Compared to their high-flying form in the league, Nottingham will naturally not deviate from their usual approach. Possession is overrated. Instead, the focus will be on a compact, multi-legged defense, good set pieces, and a brutally efficient transition game. Only Liverpool and Arsenal have conceded fewer goals than the surprise team with the tree in their logo.

Predicted line-up:
Sels – Moreno, Morato, Murillo, Milenkovic, Williams – Danilo, Anderson, Dominguez, Elanga – Wood

Manchester City – Statistics & current form

Manchester City celebrated an extremely emotional and, above all, important triumph in the Premier League this week. In the early match against Aston Villa, a direct competitor for the Champions League places, a great solo run by Jeremy Doku, followed by a cross to Matheus Nunes in literally the last second, secured a 2-1 victory. The Sky Blues moved up to third place in the standings and now have a four-point lead over sixth place. This suggests that Guardiola’s team will avoid the worst-case scenario of missing out on Champions League qualification after all.

Will Man City at least remain in the race for a title?

The English league leaders of recent years now have their only remaining chance of silverware in the FA Cup. Guardiola’s side have benefited from good luck in the draw so far. The Cityzens have only had to eliminate one Premier League side, Bournemouth. In total, they have conceded just three goals in the competition so far.

On Sunday, the trend is also toward a low-scoring game, especially since City is struggling to score goals in the absence of Erling Haaland. At the same time, however, the defense has also stepped up its game. Because last year’s champions have conceded significantly fewer goals overall and have even kept a clean sheet in three of their last five competitive games, I am also checking the odds between Nottingham and Manchester City for a “clean sheet” victory for the Sky Blues. If the favorites win 1-0, 2-0, or 3-0 after regular time, for example, this would bring odds of 3.35 at Winamax.

However, those who want to avoid risk and hedge against the possibility of a draw after 90 minutes can combine Kevin de Bruyne and Co.’s progress with under goals at Betano. For the Nottingham vs. Manchester City prediction that City will reach the final with a maximum of three goals in regular time, Betano is offering odds of 1.95.

Predicted line-up:
Ortega – O’Reilly, Gvardiol, Dias, Nunes – Gündogan, Kovacic – Marmoush, Foden, Silva – De Bruyne

Nottingham – Manchester City Head-to-head record / H2H record

Only the last six Premier League meetings between these teams since 2022 are relevant for the upcoming FA Cup semi-final. Four of those six encounters went to the Cityzens, who celebrated all four victories without conceding a goal. At the beginning of December 2024, Guardiola’s team won 3-0 at home, while the return leg at City Ground in Nottingham just under two months ago was lost 0-1. Who will come out on top in the third duel of the season and secure a place in the final of the most important cup competition on the island?

Nottingham – Manchester City Tip

Pep Guardiola recently admitted that his team has had a poor season. However, it could still end on a high note if they manage to win the FA Cup for the third time under his leadership. First, though, they must secure their third consecutive place in the final. This will be no walk in the park, as Nottingham Forest, the surprise team of the season, await the star-studded ensemble from Manchester. The Tricky Trees are particularly adept at frustrating their opponents’ attacks.

I therefore expect an exciting, intense, and evenly matched game with few goals. On the other hand, I expect the favorites to confirm their good form of recent weeks and successfully avenge their 0-1 defeat in the Premier League at the beginning of March. Nevertheless, I wouldn’t be surprised if City have to be patient for a long time to break down the East Midlands stronghold.