Will the Tricky Trees take their chance in the replay?

After a strong run of three wins from four consecutive games, Nottingham Forest have now lost four competitive games in a row under Nuno Espírito Santo (two draws, two defeats). Not only did the Tricky Trees’ lead over the first relegation spot in the Premier League shrink to two points, but the Reds were also held to a goalless draw at second-tier Bristol in the FA Cup. It would therefore be important for the club if Nottingham were to win at home against Bristol, which could herald a further turnaround

Bristol City are also anything but strong at the moment. The Robins are only 14th in the EFL Championship and have not won in four competitive matches (three draws, one defeat). Their most recent league defeat was a 1-0 loss to Leeds United on Friday, in which they again failed to score many goals. The prediction of a not too high-scoring second leg between Nottingham and Bristol therefore seems very consistent to us

In the original match in the FA Cup, the two teams played out a goalless draw with a number of key players rested, which was not very exciting for spectators. Nottingham Forest only had two shots on goal. In the end, Bristol City did not have a single shot on goal. A decision must now be made in the replay. However, we do not expect a goal festival.

It is therefore very reasonable to bet that less than 2.5 goals will be scored in this clash, which will determine Manchester United’s opponent in the round of 16. After all, there have only been more goals in two of the last ten meetings between the two clubs.

Nottingham – stats & current form

Nottingham Forest have not only won the national championship in 1978 and the European Cup twice in a row in the following two years, but have also won the FA Cup twice, although these titles date back to 1898 and 1959.

It is true that another major title would suit the Tricky Trees very well. However, given their recent history, the fact that the Garibaldi Reds are back in the Premier League for the second year in a row after a 23-year absence should be seen as a success

The momentum of the change of manager has evaporated again

At the moment, Nottingham Forest have their hands full with the fight to avoid relegation, for which a new coach, Nuno Espírito Santo, was installed at the end of 2023. Under the Portuguese, the Tricky Trees promptly won against the two Champions League representatives Newcastle and Manchester United shortly before the end of the year.

However, after the Garibaldi Reds only managed to book their place in the fourth round of the FA Cup in a replay against third division side Blackpool in the last round, the East Midlands outfit have now gone four consecutive competitive games without a win (two draws, two defeats).

Does Nottingham spare the first guard?

The situation is correspondingly tense, as they are once again just two points clear of the first relegation spot in the Premier League. The odds are now clearly in the Tricky Trees’ favor for Nottingham against Bristol. However, it is also clear that the focus is already primarily on the upcoming Premier League home game against Newcastle.

Accordingly, we assume that Nuno Espírito Santo will once again give preference to players from the second tier in this FA Cup home game in order to fulfill the mandatory task and secure a place in the round of 16 in the replay against the Robins.

Predicted Nottingham line-up:
Turner – Tavares, Murillo, Omobamidele, Montiel – Mangala, Yates – Hudson-Odoi, Danilo, Domínguez – Wood

Bristol – Statistics & current form

Bristol City also has a lot of tradition and a long history. However, the team from the south-west of England has always been denied resounding success. Only in 1909 did the Robins reach the final of the FA Cup, which they lost to Manchester United.

The club from the town on the River Avon is currently competing in the second-tier EFL Championship for the ninth year in a row, although they have only achieved a single-digit finish in the final table once since their promotion from League One in the summer of 2015 (eighth in 2018/19).

Bristol have already eliminated West Ham United

The Robins go into this replay with Nottingham Forest in anything but great form. In the first leg, Bristol City held on for a goalless draw in front of a tough home crowd, following on from the previous round when West Ham United were surprisingly knocked out of the FA Cup 1-0.

However, that 1-0 home win over the reigning Conference League champions was in fact the Robins’ only victory in their last nine competitive matches (five draws, three defeats).

In particular, Bristol are too tame offensively

After losing 1-0 to Leeds United in last Friday’s dress rehearsal, Nottingham’s chances of making it through to the FA Cup round of 16 against Bristol in midweek are now also under doubt.

The mixed away record also speaks against coach Liam Manning’s side. In the 2023/24 season, the Robins picked up just 17 points from 15 away games in the Championship. The mere 33 goals scored in 30 league games also reveal that the south-west English side’s offense has been lacking time and time again. In the first leg against Nottingham, Bristol did not manage a single shot on target.

Predicted Bristol line-up:
O’Leary – Pring, Dickie, Vyner, Tanner, McCrorie – James, Gardner-Hickman – Mehmeti, Knight, Cornway

Nottingham – Bristol head-to-head / H2H record

Head to head: 43 – 34 – 22

There have been a total of 99 meetings between the two teams so far and with 43 wins, the majority of all games have gone to Nottingham Forest. The Tricky Trees are currently unbeaten in four meetings with the Robins (two wins, two draws) and have kept a clean sheet in three of those four duels. However, four of the last ten matches between the two clubs have ended in a goalless draw.

Nottingham – Bristol betting tip

Of course, the bookmakers’ odds for Nottingham v Bristol are clearly in favor of the Tricky Trees, who as a Premier League team are clearly ahead in terms of the market value of their squad alone. The Garibaldi Reds are worth around 380 million euros. That is almost ten times the value of Bristol City. Of course, Forest must first and foremost strive to stay in the Premier League and, in view of the upcoming home game against Newcastle, will probably rest one or two of their regular players. Nevertheless, there is every reason to believe that the Tricky Trees will come out on top against the second string

However, we do not expect a clear and one-sided game. The Robins have already shown in the first duel that they can defend consistently. They allowed just two shots on goal in the home game. It is therefore a very good bet that a maximum of two goals will be scored