A clear number for the in-form Gunners?
After Norwich City took five points out of a possible nine from their first three competitive games under new manager Dean Smith, the Premier League’s bottom club were allowed to dream of staying in the league again. However, the effect of the Canaries’ change of coach quickly fizzled out. The Yellows lost their last three league games in a row.
Now the Gunners are visiting Carrow Road, a team for whom things have been a little better in recent weeks. The Arteta eleven have won all of their last four competitive matches. In the run-up to the match between Norwich and Arsenal, the bookmakers’ odds are clearly in favour of the visitors from London.
There is also the added aspect that Boxing Day in the Premier League has rarely held anything good in store for the Canaries. No other team in the competition has gone more often on this fixture day without ever winning a game than Norwich (seven games; one draw, six defeats).
However, we find the greater value in Norwich v Arsenal in betting on a maximum of one team scoring. After all, not only have the Yellows scored just one goal in seven league games on Boxing Day, but they have also currently scored just once in their last five league games.
Norwich – Statistics & current form
Norwich City have been relegated from the Premier League five times since its inception. Only West Bromwich Albion have been relegated the same number of times. But because the Throstles are currently playing in the Championship, the Yellows could reclaim the title of sole record relegation champions next summer.
At least that’s where the season so far has been heading, which is why those in charge pulled the ripcord in November and sacked Daniel Farke, under whom only a single win was picked from eleven league games.
Five points from a possible 18 under Dean Smith
Under Dean Smith, the Canaries briefly got their act together. However, five points out of a possible nine from the first three league games have turned into just five points out of a possible 18 after three straight defeats.
However, the train has not yet left the station for the men from the capital of Norfolk County in the east of England. In fact, they are only three points off the first non-relegation place, partly because of several postponements and a distorted table. The first three points on Boxing Day at the eighth attempt would be correspondingly important.
Lowest league goals ever
Problematic, however, remains the Canaries’ offence, which has scored just eight goals in 17 league games played. Never before in the history of English football has a team in the country’s top division scored so few goals in the run up to Christmas.
Norwich have failed to score eleven times in 17 games, which is why the odds on Norwich scoring against Arsenal are so good. In the last five league games alone, the Yellows have managed just one goal, while defensively they have conceded seven more in that period.
Predicted Norwich line-up:
Krul – Williams – Gibson – Kabak – Aarons – McLean – Sörensen – Gilmour – Cantwell – Placheta – Pukki
Last matches played by Norwich:
Premier League
12/14 2021 – Norwich 0 – 2 Aston Villa
12/11 2021 – Norwich 0 – 1 Manchester United
12/05 2021 – Tottenham 3 – 0 Norwich
11/30 2021 – Newcastle United 1 – 1 Norwich
11/27 2021 – Norwich 0 – 0 Wolverhampton
Arsenal – Statistics & current form
During the era under long-time successful coach Arsene Wenger, Arsenal Football Club had a regular subscription to the UEFA Champions League. In 2006, they even reached the final of the top flight before the Gunners were eliminated from the competition in the 2016/17 season with a 10-2 defeat at the hands of FC Bayern in the round of 16.
All attempts to finally return to the Champions League have failed so far. Currently, however, the Londoners are finally back on track. With 32 points from the first 18 league games, Arsenal are currently fourth in the table.
Only conceded one goal in the last three league games
Most recently, Mikel Arteta’s side managed to start a new streak after a small slump between late November and early December, when they lost three of four consecutive league games. Arsenal have won all of their last four competitive matches in a row.
In the Premier League, the Londoners also brought their defensive strength back onto the pitch. They have conceded just one goal in their last three league games, while conversely scoring nine of their own.
Only lost two of 23 league games on Boxing Day
The Capitals travel to the east of the country as suitably clear favourites.
Finally, added to the momentum is the fact that the Gunners have, for the most part, been richly endowed on Boxing Day. Only two of their 23 league games on the day were lost (14 wins, seven draws).
Predicted Arsenal line-up:
Ramsdale – Tioerney – Magalhaes – White – Tomiyasu – Xhaka – Partey – Martinelli – Ödegaard – Saka – Lacazette
Last matches played by Arsenal:
Carabao Cup
12/21 2021 – Arsenal London 5 – 1 Sunderland
Premier League
12/18 2021 – Leeds 1 – 4 Arsenal London
12/15 2021 – Arsenal London 2 – 0 West Ham
12/11 2021 – Arsenal London 3 – 0 Southampton
12/06 2021 – Everton 2 – 1 Arsenal London
Norwich – Arsenal Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
Head to head: 11 – 20 – 30
The two teams have faced each other a total of 61 times so far and after Norwich initially went unbeaten in their first five Premier League games against Arsenal, they have lost ten of their last 14 games in this competition against the Gunners (one win, three draws).
Norwich – Arsenal Tip
The prediction for Norwich against Arsenal clearly goes to the Londoners, who have won their last three league games by 9:1 goals, while the Canaries have lost three games by 0:6 goals. The Gunners, who have also historically been very successful on Boxing Day, are accordingly favoured, while the Yellows are the only Premier League club never to have won at all on this matchday.
We don’t trust the Yellows with more than a goalless draw, which is why we opt for the bet on a maximum of one team scoring. This covers most eventualities, especially as the Canaries have gone without a goal of their own in eleven of their 17 league games.
