Will the Løvene force the final against the Netherlands?
Three teams in Group G still have the chance to win the group and the direct ticket to the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. The Netherlands, who currently lead the qualifying group with 19 out of a possible 24 points, are in the best position. Just two points behind them, however, are the Norwegians, who could force a final in Rotterdam next Tuesday with a home win over Latvia.
If Løvene beat Latvia at home, Ståle Solbakken’s side can punch their ticket to Qatar on their own terms three days later in Holland. In the run-up to the match between Norway and Latvia, the bookmakers’ odds are heavily in favour of the home side, who will have to do without their injured superstar Erling Haaland.
The Latvian team is nevertheless coming to Oslo as a glaring underdog. The number 136 in the FIFA world rankings have not won any of their last four international matches and have scored only one goal in that period. Defensively, at least, the Latvians were compact for the most part. They have not conceded more than two goals in any of their last six international matches.
Due to the injury of goal machine Haaland, the home side should win by a maximum of two goals against Latvia. To cover as many eventualities as possible, we are therefore betting on the visitors with an Asian handicap of +2.5.
Norway – Statistics & current form
The Norwegian national football team has qualified for the finals of the World Cup three times: in 1938, 1994 and 1998. In their last participation to date, the Løvene (Lions) even managed to beat the reigning world champions Brazil in the group phase.
Currently, however, the Norwegians, who also missed out on the 2021 European Championship, have been waiting 24 years for another participation in a major tournament, which is also due to the fact that the northern Europeans have mostly lacked world stars.
A golden generation has grown up
However, that is exactly what has changed now, because a golden generation has grown up in Norway that is also causing a sensation in Europe. Superstar Erling Haaland has already scored twelve goals in his first 15 appearances.
At just 21 years of age, the Norwegian team should be able to enjoy him just as much as 22-year-old captain Martin Ödegaard from Arsenal FC, 23-year-old Julian Ryerson from Union Berlin or 21-year-old Marcus Holmgren Pedersen from Feyenoord Rotterdam. Players who are already fully integrated under Ståle Solbakken.
Only lost one of the last eight competitive matches
All the more reason to believe the Løvene can compensate for Erling Haaland’s absence and force the final in Holland with a home win over underdog Latvia.
After all, the Norwegian side have lost only one of their last eight internationals and are currently unbeaten in six competitive matches, picking up 14 of a possible 18 points in that period. The Northern Europeans’ chances of at least making it into the play-offs are correspondingly high.
Predicted line-up of Norway:
Nyland – Meling – Strandberg – Hanche-Olsen – Pedersen – Thorsby – Midtsjö – Ödegaard – Elyounoussi – Sörloth – King
Last matches played by Norway:
World Cup Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. G
10/11 2021 – Norway 2 – 0 Montenegro
10/08 2021 – Turkey 1 – 1 Norway
09/07 2021 – Norway 5 – 1 Gibraltar
09/04 2021 – Latvia 0 – 2 Norway
09/01 2021 – Norway 1 – 1 Netherlands
Latvia – Statistics & current form
The Republic of Latvia was part of the Soviet Union until 1990. For the first time, an independent Latvian national football team attempted to qualify for a World Cup in 1994. So far, however, the 11 vilki (the eleven wolves) have been unsuccessful.
The Latvians only qualified for the European Championship in 2004, when they finished bottom of the group after one draw and two defeats.
Only five points out of a possible 24 from the first eight games
Meanwhile, it is already clear that it will not be enough for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar either. The 11 vilki have only managed to win one of their eight qualifying matches in Group G so far: a 3:1 home victory over football dwarf Gibraltar, who they will have to beat away next Tuesday.
However, with only two points from a possible 21 from the other seven qualifying matches, in which only five goals were scored, they are already twelve points off second place with two matchdays to go in the 2022 World Cup Qualifiers.
Latvia lack exceptional players
Nevertheless, coach Dainis Kazakevičs, under whom only four of his 19 internationals have been won so far, will go into these internationals with his best eleven. However, the fact that 16 of the 24 nominated players earn their bread and butter in the little-noticed Latvian league is problematic, while none of the eight legionnaires is under contract with a renowned club.
Also because of the clear limitations of the 11 vilki, the betting on a point win for Norway against Latvia, the 136th in the FIFA world rankings, is under the worst possible star. The Latvians already suffered a 2-0 home defeat against the Norwegian side in the first leg.
Predicted line-up of Latvia:
Ozols – Dubra – Tarasovs – Savalnieks – Oss – Jurkovskis – Zjuzins – Kamess – Ciganiks – Fjodorovs – Gutkovskis
Last matches played by Latvia:
World Cup Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. G
10/11 2021 – Latvia 1 – 2 Turkey
10/08 2021 – Latvia 0 – 1 Netherlands
09/07 2021 – Montenegro 0 – 0 Latvia
09/04 2021 – Latvia 0 – 2 Norway
09/01 2021 – Latvia 3 – 1 Gibraltar
Norway – Latvia Direct comparison / H2H-balance
Head to head: 2 – 0 – 1
The two teams have faced each other three times, and in the 2000 European Championship qualifiers the Latvians even managed a 2-1 win over the Løvene at home in Riga after losing the first leg in Norway (1:3). This time, however, the first leg brought a 0:2 home defeat.
Norway – Latvia tip
For Norway against Latvia, the forecast has to take into account the strong form of the Løvene, who have not lost any of their last six competitive matches and can still clinch the group win on their own merits after their recent haul of 14 points out of a possible 18. This contrasts with Latvia, who have won just one of their last seven internationals: a 3-1 home victory over football dwarfs Gibraltar.
The Norwegians are accordingly clear favourites in this home match. However, the Latvians, who have not conceded more than two goals in any of their last six international matches, can be expected not to go completely to the wall.
Accordingly, we see a lot of value in betting on the guests with an Asian handicap of +2.5
