Thrilling constellation for the European champions
Some European teams have already punched their ticket to the World Cup in Qatar. The European champions must tremble until the last matchday. Even a victory on Monday in Northern Ireland is not enough for sure. There is even the possibility that the group win in this pool will be determined by direct comparison or even by away goals.
Currently, Italy are 15 points ahead of the Swiss, who are level on points. The European champions have the better goal difference by two goals. If, for example, the Italians win 1-0 in Northern Ireland and the Swiss win 3-0 at home against Bulgaria, both teams will be level on points and goals. The Swiss would then take the top spot, due to an away goal in an otherwise even direct comparison.
The Squadra Azzura will therefore have one ear to the ground for the Swiss match in Lucerne. However, the Italians have the better starting position and should things get tight, Roberto Mancini will have to pull out all the offensive stops. Nevertheless, before the clash between Northern Ireland and Italy, the prediction is that the European champions will also be in the starting line-up at the World Cup.
There is nothing left to play for for Northern Ireland. The Green and White Army are currently in third place with eight points and are fighting for this position with the Bulgarians, who are level on points, but it will be meaningless in the end. The British will nevertheless put everything into this match to avoid any possible reproaches from Switzerland afterwards.
Northern Ireland – statistics & current form
The European Championship with 24 participants is a realistic goal for the Northern Irish. However, the first World Cup participation since 1986 was missed again. However, the Green and White Army were only big outsiders in this group. Ian Baraclough’s team was not expected to finish higher than third from the very beginning.
Unpleasant Northern Irish
So you can talk about a decent qualification. As a rule, the Northern Irish have presented themselves as unpleasant opponents, but not always successfully. They have only won one of their last four games and that is why we do not look at the odds for a home win between Northern Ireland and Italy.
However, Switzerland also struggled mightily in their 0-0 draw at Windsor Park. Maybe a little surprise is possible on Monday. On Friday, the Northern Irish hosted the underdogs from Lithuania. In an expectedly low-scoring game, the match was decided by a Lithuanian own goal after just fifteen minutes.
It’s quite possible that coach Ian Baraclough is making a stress management decision. However, we rather assume that he will send his best possible team into the race and make life as difficult as possible for the European champions. The team will not include goal scorer Kyle Lafferty, Ryan McLaughlin, Conor McLaughlin and Michael Smith.
Northern Ireland line-up:
Peacock-Farrell – Evans, Cathcart, McNair – Ferguson, Saville, McCann, Davis, Dallas – Washington, Magennis – Coach: Baraclough
Last matches played by Northern Ireland:
World Cup Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. C
11/12 2021 – Northern Ireland 1 – 0 Lithuania
10/12 2021 – Bulgaria 2 – 1 Northern Ireland
10/09 2021 – Switzerland 2 – 0 Northern Ireland
09/08 2021 – Northern Ireland 0 – 0 Switzerland
Friendly match
09/05 2021 – Estonia 0 – 1 Northern Ireland
Italy – Statistics & current form
After missing out on the 2018 World Cup in Russia, the Squadra Azzura are now struggling to qualify for the title matches once again. Yet the team rose like Phoenix from the ashes after missing out on the World Cup in Russia and secured the European Championship title in the summer with some enthusiastic football.
Mega Series of the Azzuri
Although the Italians have lost only one of their last 40 international matches and are unbeaten in the current qualifying campaign, they are still threatened with a trip to the unloved play-offs. In the long-distance duel with the Swiss, the Azzuri are doomed to victory. At the very least, we think the prediction of an away win between Northern Ireland and Italy is not too far-fetched.
The Squadra Azzura could have taken a big step towards Qatar as early as Friday. The Swiss were the guests in Rome and with a home win the Italians would almost have been through. First, however, the Swiss took the lead. Giovanni Di Lorenzo equalised. In the final minute, Jorginho missed the chance to seal the Italian victory with a penalty.
So now it will be down to Monday’s match in Belfast. Robert Mancini is not exactly a fan of rotation. Therefore, we expect a similar starting eleven as against Switzerland. Alessandro Bastoni, Cristiano Biraghi and Davide Calabria have to miss out at short notice. In addition, Giorgio Chiellini, Marco Verratti, Stefano Sensi or Ciro Immobile are missing.
Predicted line-up of Italy:
Donnarumma – Emerson, Acerbi, Bonucci, Di Lorenzo – Jorginho, Barella, Locatelli – Insigne, Chiesa, Belotti – Coach: Mancini
Last matches played by Italy:
World Cup Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. C
11/12 2021 – Italy 1 – 1 Switzerland
UEFA Nations League A Championship Playoff
10/10 2021 – Italy 2 – 1 Belgium
10/06 2021 – Italy 1 – 2 Spain
WM Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. C
09/08 2021 – Italy 5 – 0 Lithuania
09/05 2021 – Switzerland 0 – 0 Italy
Northern Ireland – Italy Direct comparison / H2H balance
Ten times the paths of the Green and White Army and the Squadra Azzura have crossed to date. The direct comparison is a clear affair for the Italians, who are 7:1 ahead after victories. Twice the two opponents have parted with a draw. The only victory for the British was 65 years ago, but that was in a World Cup qualifier and in Belfast.
The last goal against Italy was scored by the Northern Irish in a test match in April 1961. What is still important, however, is that the Italians have played in Northern Ireland three times and never won. The last encounter was the first leg in the current World Cup qualifiers. In March, Roberto Mancini’s side won 2-0 with goals from Domenico Berardi and Ciro Immobile.
Northern Ireland – Italy Tip
The direct comparison is clearly in favour of the Italians, but the Squadra Azzura have never won in their three visits to Northern Ireland. Whether that is a bad omen for Monday’s match is something everyone must judge for themselves. After all, the Italians are travelling to Belfast as reigning European champions and have not conceded a goal against the British since 1961.
In addition, the Italians have been extremely strong on the road for the last three years and have lost only one of their last 40 international matches. In addition, the Squadra Azzura has a very solid defence.
But Northern Ireland are known for their fighting spirit and we expect them to give the European champions nothing. Whether Roberto Mancini’s side will be able to qualify directly for the World Cup depends on the parallel match, but we are offering odds on a win for the Squadra Azzura in the Northern Ireland vs Italy clash.
