Do the Cobblers still jump into the promotion play-off?

Relegation play-offs have a long and prestigious tradition in England. Down to the National League, there are two or three direct promotions, while the teams in the places behind then compete in a small four-way tournament for the last vacant spot for the next higher division.

In England’s fourth highest football league, League Two, the semi-final second legs are already on the agenda these days. They will determine the two clubs who will play for promotion to League One at Wembley Stadium on 28 May, the day of the Champions League final. One of these two finalists could be Northampton Town, although the Cobblers will have to make up for their defeat in the first leg against Mansfield Town first.

Looking at the odds before the second leg between Northampton and Mansfield, it is clear that the bookmakers give the visitors from Nottinghamshire the better chance of reaching the final. On the “To-Qualify” market, for example, a 3.25 is offered for the home side to progress.

These are attractive odds, considering that the first leg ended 2-1 for the Stags and that Mansfield have not been as successful away from home as they have been at home.

Northampton – Statistics & current form

Football can be really bitter sometimes. For example, when you have a mammoth 46-game season and end up exactly one goal short of celebrating direct promotion. This was exactly the scenario Northampton Town had to contend with. Despite an impressive 80-point haul, the Cobblers had to settle for fourth place in the final standings.

If only they had scored one more goal in their 3-1 away win against relegation-threatened Barrow FC on the last matchday, Jon Brady’s team could have avoided the arduous play-offs. It was a bitter pill to swallow: the industrial city led by that score at half-time, while their direct rivals, Bristol Rovers, increased their own score from 2-0 to 7-0 after the break and thus actually moved past them in the standings.

Did Northampton handle the dramatic finish to the season?

It would be a lie if that memorable season finale hadn’t had a negative effect on the players’ psyche in some way. This was also evident in the early stages of the semi-final second leg, when the Cobblers were already trailing 0:2 after just over half an hour. However, the Brady team was in control at the latest after the all-important equaliser and almost managed to equalise.

If the club, which was only relegated from League One in pre-season, can build on their performance from minute 60 onwards, we are convinced that betting on the home side to progress can still pay off on Wednesday night between Northampton and Mansfield.

Northampton’s current form is one of the reasons for this, as they have remained unbeaten in six consecutive matches during the regular season (four wins, two draws) and have even won four of their last eight league games. Their home record of 13 wins, five draws and five defeats – the most recent in mid-March – is also impressive and serves as a further argument to justify a prediction on the Cobblers in the second leg of Northampton v Mansfield. Liam Roberts also returns between the posts after being suspended in the first leg.

Predicted Northampton line-up:
Roberts; Mills, Horsfall, Guthrie, Koiki; Sowerby, McWilliams; Felix-Eppiah, Pinnock, Hoskins; Appere

Last games played by Northampton:

League Two Playoff
15/05/2022 – Mansfield 2 – 1 Northampton

League Two
07/05/2022 – Barrow 1 – 3 Northampton

30/04/2022 – Northampton 1 – 1 Exeter

23/04/2022 – Leyton Orient 2 – 4 Northampton

18/04/2022 – Northampton 3 – 0 Harrogate Town

Mansfield – Statistics & current form

Although Mansfield Town were three points short of third and fourth place in the end, direct promotion was definitely within the realms of possibility for the “Stags” as well. If coach Nigel Clough’s side had picked up six points instead of two in the last two regular matchdays, they would have been guaranteed a ticket to England’s third-tier league.

However, two draws at Salford City and Forest Green Rovers meant they finished seventh in the final table, just one point clear of the first non-play-off spot. Nevertheless, the 70,000 inhabitants of the city, which lies between Nottingham and Sheffield, were not dissatisfied with the result. Particularly in view of the fact that in the past two seasons the team only finished 16th and 21st.

Mansfield are clearly weaker away from home

Thanks to the aforementioned 2-1 first leg win, the Clough eleven is now in a good position to enter the final. Before that, however, they have to overcome the difficult task at Sixfields Stadium, which could turn out to be more complicated than the odds might suggest due to the disappointing away record between Northampton and Mansfield.

Only 28 of the total of 77 points have been taken away from home. In 23 away games, there were just seven wins. This contrasted with seven draws and nine defeats. Almost ten teams have scored more goals away from home than the Stags, who have also only come out on top in one of their last five League Two outings.

A draw on Wednesday night is enough to see them through to the final, but it is precisely this supposedly comfortable starting position that could lead to the team slipping into a certain lethargy. In terms of personnel, coach Clough has no reason to change his first eleven.

Predicted Mansfield line-up:
Bishop; Perch, O’Toole, Hawkins, McLaughlin; Longstaff, Maris, Quinn; Murphy; Bowery, Oates

Last Mansfield games:

League Two Playoff
15/05/2022 – Mansfield 2 – 1 Northampton

League Two
07/05/2022 – Mansfield 2 – 2 Forest Green

02/05/2022 – Salford City 2 – 2 Mansfield

27/04/2022 – Mansfield 2 – 0 Stevenage

23/04/2022 – Mansfield 2 – 0 Crawley

Northampton – Mansfield Direct comparison / H2H record

This is the fourth time the clubs have faced each other in League Two this season. In the three meetings so far, i.e. in the two duels during the regular season and in the play-off first leg, the home team has always come out on top.

In 13 games at Sixfields Stadium in Northampton, the home side have won eight and lost just two. That’s one of the reasons why we’re confident the hosts can turn things around in this encounter on Wednesday night.

Northampton – Mansfield tip

Exactly one starting spot is still up for grabs for the upcoming League One season. This will go to either Northampton, Mansfield, Port Vale or Swindon. The first finalist for the all-important promotion play-off at Wembley on 28 May will be finally decided on Wednesday night. The semi-final second leg will then see Northampton face Mansfield again. According to the betting odds, the visitors are well on course to defend their 2-1 first leg victory.

However, we have a slightly different opinion and believe that the home side can turn things around. This assessment is based primarily on the last 30 minutes of the first leg, when the Cobblers performed very well and were able to force the Stags into the defensive time and again. Prior to that, it had taken 60 minutes for coach Jon Brady’s side to come to terms with their memorable season finale, when they fell just one goal short of outright promotion.

Now we expect an attack-minded home side from the start, who have won 13 home games this season and also finished the regular season with 14 of a possible 18 points from six games. On the other hand, Mansfield are a team that has been far from convincing away from home, winning just seven of their 23 matches away from home.