Relegation battle in the north of England
In the English Premier League, everything points to the relegation battle being reduced to four teams. The four teams at the bottom of the table have already lost touch with the competition a little. That makes the direct duels all the more important. One of these duels will take place on Saturday at St. James Park. Newcastle United and Watford face each other at 4 p.m.
The nouveau riche Magpies want to be in the mix at the top with the Sheikh millions, but currently the relegation battle is the home of Eddie Howe’s side. As 19th in the table, the home side could leapfrog the promoted side with a home win on Saturday and reach the save shore. A landmark game for both teams, with betting odds offered around 2.00 for Newcastle to beat Watford.
The clear favourites in favour of the home side are particularly due to the visitors’ lack of form. Sir Elton John’s favourite club have lost their last six league games in a row and are on a rapid slide.
Newcastle – Statistics & current form
At long last, the transfer market has opened its doors. However, the big shopping tour in the north of England is still waiting. In winter, big transfers are difficult anyway, besides, everyone knows that at Newcastle the one or other million more does not matter. The best example is the 30-million-euro transfer of Chris Wood. Will the tall New Zealander save the day? Doubts are absolutely justified.
A win of the season!
That change is desperately needed is evident from a look at the statistics so far. 19 league games – one win, eight draws and ten defeats. In addition, there was the extremely embarrassing exit against third division side Cambridge United in the FA Cup. However, the elimination from the oldest cup competition in the world is somewhat put into perspective by the long enforced break. The Magpies’ last two league games had to be postponed.
West Bromwich Albion were the last team in the English top flight to stay in the league after only one win from 19 games (2004/05). In view of the equally weakening competition, however, salvation is still within reach and by no means unrealistic.
Lead does not provide security
After all the setbacks in recent months, you’d think a lead would bring some confidence to the players. The nouveau riche Premier League club, however, seem to be afraid of winning. No fewer than 19 points have been lost by the 19th-placed team this season after taking the lead. This is already the third highest figure in the club’s history (the negative record in 2004/05 was 31 points).
Newcastle are allowing an average of 15.7 shots per game, their worst performance since the 2008/09 season. The defence lacks any stability and therefore a prediction on a game with many goals can be an interesting option in this relegation clash between Newcastle and Watford.
Predicted Newcastle line-up:
Dubravka – Trippier, Lascelles, Schär, Krafth – Willock, Shelvey, Longstaff Saint-Maximin – Wood, Joelinton
Last matches played by Newcastle:
FA Cup
01/08 2022 – Newcastle United 0 – 1 Cambridge U
Premier League
12/27 2021 – Newcastle United 1 – 1 Manchester United
12/19 2021 – Newcastle United 0 – 4 Manchester City
12/16 2021 – Liverpool FC 3 – 1 Newcastle United
12/12 2021 – Leicester 4 – 0 Newcastle United
Watford – Statistics & current form
Meanwhile, the Hornets’ management has to face the question of whether the coaching change at the beginning of October was really necessary? Promotion coach Xisco had to pack his bags after a short dry spell and Leicester’s championship hero Ranieri is expected to fix the goal of staying in the league.
Ten defeats in twelve games
The 70-year-old veteran coach is now a dozen games in charge of the Hornets. In no less than ten of those twelve games Watford conceded defeat. Most recently, there were six Premier League defeats in a row as well as a 1:4 rejection on Ranieri’s return to the King Power Stadium against Leicester City.
The Hornets are in free fall and improvement is not in sight. With Ismaila Sarr, Imran Louza, Adam Masina and William Troost-Ekong, a strong quartet is represented at the Africa Cup. The defence in particular is severely weakened by replacements and Ranieri will have to improvise. The negative run and the many absences definitely speak for the tip on Saturday at Newcastle vs. Watford for the home win.
At least one goal conceded is guaranteed
With Masina and Troost-Ekong out of action, the Hornets look set to continue their run of failing to score nil in the Premier League. The London team has conceded at least one goal in 28 PL games this season. The last time the Hornets conceded a goal was in February 2020, so betting on the Hornets to score a lot of goals is a good option this season. They have averaged 3.22 goals per game so far.
Predicted Watford line-up:
Bachmann – Kamara, Sierralta, Cathcart, Ngakia – Sema, Sissoko, Tufan, Kucka – Dennis, King
Last matches played by Watford:
FA Cup
01/08 2022 – Leicester 4 – 1 Watford
Premier League
01/01 2022 – Watford 0 – 1 Tottenham
12/28 2021 – Watford 1 – 4 West Ham
12/10 2021 – Brentford 2 – 1 Watford
12/04 2021 – Watford 1 – 3 Manchester City
Newcastle – Watford Direct comparison / H2H record
Not necessarily a favourite opponent for the newly-rich Newcastle are the Hornets. Of the last ten games in the English football top flight, Newcastle could only celebrate a single victory (four draws, five defeats). In addition, Watford have won two of their last four appearances as visitors at St James’ Park, while the London side previously needed 14 attempts (two wins, three draws, nine defeats).
Newcastle – Watford Tip
This relegation battle is an absolutely crucial game for both teams. Neither the host nor the guest will have much self-confidence. However, a win against a direct competitor could make a statement and in the case of the Magpies it would mean a (temporary) jump to a non-relegation place. The bookmakers see Newcastle against Watford as relatively clear favourites according to the current odds.
Although the Howe eleven has only celebrated one measly win this season and most recently failed to win the FA Cup against a third division team, this assessment is quite understandable. The Hornets from London are in free fall, having lost their last seven competitive games, and Claudio Ranieri has not yet managed to stabilise the weak defence. And now a number of players are out of action due to international suspensions for the Africa Cup. All not good prerequisites for an end to the negative run, so the prediction for Newcastle against Watford is recommended on the home win.
