Will Newcastle take the final step towards the final?
Traditionally, the first national title in English club football is awarded in the EFL Cup. The grand final is scheduled for the end of February at the venerable Wembley Stadium in London. Newcastle United are currently on a very good path towards London. The Magpies already won their semi-final first leg at St. Mary’s Stadium against Southampton 1-0 and are therefore one and a half legs away from the final.
Coach Eddie Howe’s side will be looking to seal their place in the final on Tuesday night. The chances are exorbitantly good, because even before the second leg Newcastle vs Southampton, the tip on the black and whites is significantly lower odds. No wonder, because after all, a Champions League contender from the Premier League is up against a relegation candidate from the English top flight.
Apart from that, the starting position speaks a clear language in favour of the home side, who have been extremely stable defensively lately, hardly conceded any goals and can now act in a wait-and-see manner or lurk on the counterattack.
It may therefore be interesting to predict between Newcastle and Southampton that more goals will be scored in the second half. As the game progresses, the visitors will inevitably have to take more risks, so that at the very latest in the final phase there will be switching opportunities for the heavy favourites.
Newcastle – Statistics & current form
Newcastle United Football Club continues to be one of the most positive surprises of the current season in England’s top flight. After 20 matchdays, the Magpies are still in the top three of the Premier League and are eight points clear in fifth position. At the moment, everything points to the Black and Whites being involved in the 2023/24 Champions League group stage.
The pride of Eddie Howe’s team is undoubtedly its defence. The feeling of conceding a goal is something the players from the northernmost city in the country only know from hearsay. In the nine competitive matches after the World Cup break, the Magpies only conceded two goals in the disappointing FA Cup third round defeat to Sheffield Wednesday. In the other eight matches, however, the PL third-placed team always kept their clean sheet!
Newcastle hold all the trump cards
In view of this truly impressive strength in defence, which is further underlined by the fact that last year’s eleventh-placed team currently has the best defence in the English top flight with only eleven goals conceded, it is definitely worth considering playing the odds on a “to-nil” victory for the favourites on Tuesday night between Newcastle and Southampton as well.
The truth of the matter, however, is that the attack of former Bundesliga internationals Ishak and Joelinton has struggled to create chances of its own of late. Three of the Magpies’ most recent four league games have ended 0-0, and “The Toon” has scored more than one of his own in only three of the past ten inter-competition matches. Against this backdrop, under bets in the upcoming semi-final second leg also have their special appeal.
We expect a home team that will not storm wildly, but will once again lurk from a compact defensive position and minimise the risk of giving away the narrow lead early on. Especially in the second half, more and more spaces will open up for the qualitatively stronger hosts and the probability of potential goal successes will increase. Shelvey, Krafth and Targett are out through injury. Recent signing Anthony Gordon has already featured for Everton in this competition and is therefore ineligible for the ‘first national title since 1955’ mission.
Predicted Newcastle line-up:
Pope; Trippier, Schär, Botman, Burn; Willock, Longstaff, Guimaraes; Almiron, Wilson, Joelinton
Last matches played by Newcastle:
Carabao Cup
25/01/2023 – Southampton 0 – 1 Newcastle
Premier League
22/01/2023 – Crystal Palace 0 – 0 Newcastle
15/01/2023 – Newcastle 1 – 0 Fulham
Carabao Cup
11/01/2023 – Newcastle 2 – 0 Leicester
FA Cup
08/01/2023 – Sheffield Wednesday 2 – 1 Newcastle
Southampton – Statistics & current form
The top priority for Southampton Football Club this year is the fight to stay in the Premier League. The Saints currently occupy last place in the league table, but are only two points off the bottom. Nevertheless, the yield of only 15 points in 20 completed matches is absolutely worrying. In addition to four wins and three draws this season, the southerners have already lost 13 times.
It is therefore all the more surprising that the red and whites seem to be able to shake off any problems from their dreary everyday life and make a splash in the cup competitions. At the weekend, a lacklustre 2-1 victory over Blackpool in the FA Cup saw them through to the last 16 of the most important club cup on the island.
Will the Saints achieve the next cup sensation?
The Saints were also able to eliminate a heavy favourite in the League Cup with Manchester City. Before that, however, the team of Hasenhüttl’s successor Nathan Jones benefited from a certain luck of the draw. No other opponent from the Premier League had to be defeated on the way to the quarter-finals. Three of the four matches were also played in front of their own fans.
In the semi-final, however, the PL bottom side squandered home advantage from the first leg. The Saints have to make up a 0:1 deficit in the second 90 minutes and will have to take more risks at some point to do so. The fact is that with only eight goals scored in ten away games in the league, the attack will need a cream day to overcome the most stable defence in the country.
We believe that the difficult constellation and the fact that the red and whites must not expose their own defence too early are veritable arguments for playing the odds on more second-half goals in the Newcastle vs Southampton clash. Juan Larios, Valentino Livramento and Alex McCarthy will not be available through injury. Caleta-Car saw yellow in the first leg but was able to serve that suspension in the FA Cup at the weekend and therefore returns to the back four.
Predicted Southampton line-up:
Bazunu; Walker-Peters, Lyanco, Caleta-Car, Salisu; Alcaraz, Diallo; Edozie, Ward-Prowse, Orsic; Mara
Last matches played by Southampton:
FA Cup
28/01/2023 – Southampton 2 – 1 Blackpool
Carabao Cup
25/01/2023 – Southampton 0 – 1 Newcastle
Premier League
21/01/2023 – Southampton 0 – 1 Aston Villa
14/01/2023 – Everton 1 – 2 Southampton
Carabao Cup
12/01/2023 – Southampton 2 – 0 Manchester City
Newcastle – Southampton Direct comparison / H2H record
This is the third time the two clubs have faced each other this season. In the Premier League, the Magpies won 4-1 away at St. Mary’s Stadium, while the first leg of the EFL Cup semi-final ended 1-0 for the Black and Whites at the same venue.
Both times more goals were scored in the second half than in the first. Incidentally, Southampton last won at national level at St James’ Park in the north of England in 2015. The Toon” remained unbeaten at home against the Saints six times in a row (four wins, two draws).
Newcastle – Southampton Tip
After Newcastle’s 1-0 first leg win at St Mary’s Stadium at Southampton FC, all indications are that the Magpies will advance to the final of the Carabao Cup on 26 February 2023. Manchester United would then most likely be waiting there. However, the Red Devils still have to play their second leg in the semi-final against Nottingham on Wednesday evening.
Ahead of the second leg between Newcastle and Southampton, the betting odds are heavily in favour of the Howe team. At the top, just 1.45 is offered for a home win at St. James Park. This is an understandable assessment, as the Saints not only have to win away from home at the third-placed team in the Premier League, but also at a team that has only conceded two goals in the entire season and has not conceded in eight of its last nine games in the competition.
But because the odds on a home win don’t offer much in the way of value, we’re going with a bet on more goals in the second half between Newcastle and Southampton.
