Can Howe beat his personal Klopp curse?

For a total of eight years, Eddie Howe stood on the sidelines for his heart club AFC Bournemouth. Despite financially imposed limits, the now 45-year-old did a really good job in the southwest of England even back then and was considered a great coaching promise for the future. The future is now. In the meantime, the ex-professional is in charge of an absolute top team on the island with Newcastle and will make his debut in the Champions League in a few weeks.

Eddie Howe still needs to work on his record against big-name coaches, however. Against Jürgen Klopp, for example, the blonde, who will celebrate his two-year anniversary at St. James Park in early November, conceded ten (!) Premier League defeats in a row.

On Sunday afternoon, the eleventh defeat in a row could follow. Then Newcastle and Liverpool face each other in the top match of the third matchday in the English top flight. The bet on the home side will bring lower odds, with LFC even being treated as the underdogs.

This is a risky assessment, because considering the fact that the Reds can be called a kind of fear opponent for NUFC, it is risky to predict a home win after 90 minutes between Newcastle and Liverpool.

More interesting, however, are the odds that the teams will meet on an absolute equal footing and neutralize each other for long stretches of the match.

Newcastle – Statistics & current form

After two matchdays Newcastle United currently holds on three points. The Magpies won the first match in front of their home crowd in a very convincing manner with 5-1 against Aston Villa. The previous week, however, they suffered their first defeat in a 1-0 loss at Manchester City. Nevertheless, the Black and Whites put in a decent performance at the reigning champions and Champions League winners and only lost due to a dream goal by Julian Alvarez.

As in the previous season, when the players from the northeast of the country sensationally finished fourth and thus secured their ticket to the group stage of the top flight, Eddie Howe’s team must be reckoned with again in the top flight of the Premier League in 2023/24. The first two competitive appearances have impressively underpinned this and also serve as a veritable argument to take a closer look at the odds on the double chance 1X between Newcastle and Liverpool on Sunday.

Newcastle is very difficult to defeat at home

It is extremely likely that the Magpies will keep at least one point at home in the third PL matchday, also in view of their good home record. In 2022/23, there were only two defeats in a total of 17 PL home games. After a total of 34 home games under Eddie Howe’s management, NUFC have 20 wins, ten draws and just four defeats. By way of comparison, it took 62 matches in the English top flight before the Howe era to achieve the aforementioned 20 successes.

The already remarkable record at St. James Park reads even more extraordinary when the Magpies have taken the lead. On 26 occasions when last year’s fourth-placed team was in front at home, there was not a single defeat, but instead 20 successes and six points shared. So the Reds had better not fall behind on Sunday…

Despite the fact that the Black and Whites have not won any of the past 13 Premier League matches against their upcoming opponents from the Merseyside, it is absolutely understandable in our eyes that Newcastle is even seen as the favorite against Liverpool this time according to the odds. If it were not for the negative series of coach Eddie Howe against his counterpart Jürgen Klopp mentioned in the introduction.

Predicted lineup of Newcastle:

Newcastle (Expected lineup) 4-3-3

Liverpool – statistics & current form

International soccer always provides curious spark. Such was the case with Liverpool Football Club’s last match against AFC Bournemouth, in which Argentine World Cup winner Alexis MacAllister was sent off for gross foul play. Despite being outnumbered for around half an hour, the Reds eventually won 3-1 and were pleased to see the suspension against the Brighton newcomer lifted with immediate effect.

The fact that in times of VAR such crazy wrong decisions happen, which subsequently have to be revised by the leading league association, can hardly be surpassed in ridiculousness.

Will Liverpool remain unbeaten in the PL for the 14th consecutive season?

What is already causing a slight headache again after two matchdays is the holey defense. In the opener, LFC was able to live very well with a 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea due to the Blues’ many chances, and the defense didn’t leave the safest impression against Bournemouth either. However, because Jürgen Klopp will certainly choose a somewhat deeper pressing line at St. James Park and is likely to adapt the risk to the sporting challenge, an under-bet seems plausibly justifiable.

However, the Reds definitely do not need to hide. LFC is now the only Premier League team not to have lost in 13 games. Even when trailing by five goals in this period, Coach Klopp’s mental monsters have always managed to at least draw. Four wins from the last five away games at Newcastle should also give the fifth-placed team confidence.

Luis Diaz and Mo Salah are the main potential goalscorers. The latter celebrated his 200th goal in a Reds shirt against Bournemouth. No other African player has such a record in England’s top league. Luis Diaz, meanwhile, has got on the scoresheet in each of the first two matchdays and could now become only the fourth Liverpool attacker after Fowler, Sturridge and Mané to score in three consecutive matches to start the PL.

Predicted Liverpool lineup:

Liverpool FC (Expected lineup) 4-3-3

Newcastle – Liverpool Direct comparison / H2H balance

Of the 166 encounters so far in England’s top division, Liverpool Football Club has won 81. This means that the Reds have won almost twice as many matches as Newcastle (43). In the recent past, the pointer also clearly swung in LFC’s direction. Klopp’s team has not lost to Newcastle in the league 13 times in a row. Four of the most recent five guest games at St. James Park have even been won. Last season, there was a 2-1 home win at Anfield Road and a 2-0 win at Newcastle upon Tyne.

Newcastle – Liverpool betting tips

Newcastle United were by far one of the most consistent teams in the Premier League in pre-season. In February/March 2023, the Magpies last conceded two league defeats in a row. The opponents at that time were Manchester City and Liverpool. The same scenario looms again this time, as the Reds now travel to St. James Park following the narrow 1-0 defeat to the Sky Blues the previous week.

Nevertheless, we would come away from an early betting tip on the away win between Newcastle and Liverpool. For one thing, the Black and Whites are simply extremely strong at home and only conceded two defeats at all in their own stadium last season. On the other hand, LFC has already shown defensive weaknesses in the first two games of the season.

In our eyes, it is therefore more likely that the home side will pick up at least a point, possibly even landing a three-pointer for the first time after 13 direct duels in a row. Since before the top match Newcastle vs. Liverpool the betting odds on the double chance isolated but too low, we combine this with a maximum of four goals in the course of the game and finally get for the 1X & Under4.5 a rock solid 1.82, which covers many eventualities and is played by us with six units.