Will Liverpool beat Newcastle a second time?
Just days before the eagerly awaited Champions League last 16 tie against Real Madrid, the Reds from Liverpool also face a tough task in the Premier League. Coach Jürgen Klopp’s side travel to Newcastle on Saturday to face the club who currently sit fourth in the standings and would punch the final ticket for the 2023/23 top flight.
With LFC currently nine points behind the Magpies but far from having given up on the race for European Cup places, the pressure is certainly on the shoulders of the 2020 champions as they head into Matchday 24 of the Premier League, having boosted their confidence with a Merseyside derby success over Everton last Monday. Nevertheless, between Newcastle and Liverpool, betting on Mo Salah and Co. naturally brings plenty of risk.
On the one hand, the Reds have been anything but stable away from home lately and have conceded a series of goals. On the other hand, they now face an opponent who has not lost in 17 (!) Premier League games and has almost perfected defending opposing attackers in recent weeks.
Before the interesting top match Newcastle vs. Liverpool, the events from the emotionally charged first leg have to be taken into account, as the Reds won it in the last second. The Toon will now be looking for revenge in front of their own fans.
Newcastle – Statistics & current form
What an outstanding season Newcastle United are having so far can be evidenced first and foremost by the fact that the aforementioned 2-1 first leg defeat at Anfield Road was in fact their only loss in the entire Premier League campaign so far. With a record of ten wins and eleven draws, coach Eddie Howe’s team is still in fourth place and can therefore dream of the top flight in the coming season.
However, the interim flow has been somewhat lost in recent weeks. Only one of the last six Premier League matches was won. With the exception of the 1-0 home win against Fulham, the Black and Whites have had to settle for a draw in the other five. Last Saturday, they were held to a 1-1 draw at relegation candidates Bournemouth.
The defence can be relied on
Although results have dipped, Coach Howe can still rely on his outstanding defence. 13 goals conceded in 22 games equals the best value in a league comparison. Only Manchester City (3:3) and Liverpool (1:2) managed to score more than once against the Magpies. They have kept their clean sheet in six of the past eight PL matches. In total, the fourth-placed team even has twelve clean sheets so far this season.
In view of the very good defence and the fact that none of the past 17 league matches has been lost, it should definitely be an option to check the odds on the double chance 1X between Newcastle and Liverpool. This could be combined with Under 2.5/3.5, as none of the last eight matches involving the Magpies resulted in more than three goals. In fact, in the last six PL encounters, Under 2.5 would always have gone through. Three of these six matches alone ended goalless.
Last games played by Newcastle:
Premier League
12/02/2023 – Bournemouth 1 – 1 Newcastle
05/02/2023 – Newcastle 1 – 1 West Ham
Carabao Cup
01/02/2023 – Newcastle 2 – 1 Southampton
25/01/2023 – Southampton 0 – 1 Newcastle
Premier League
22/01/2023 – Crystal Palace 0 – 0 Newcastle
Liverpool – Statistics & current form
Breathing a sigh of relief was the order of the day at Liverpool Football Club on Monday night. A deserved 2-0 win over Everton in the Merseyside derby certainly gave the Reds some breathing space while ending a run of four previous winless games in a row (one draw, three defeats). The positive impressions from the home game must now finally be taken away. Things have not been going well at all for the Klopp team there lately.
LFC have lost all three of their most recent Premier League matches. Three goals were conceded in each of the three matches at Wolverhampton, Brentford and Brighton. Too many lack of concentration in the game against the ball, too easy ball losses in the game with the ball and also the lack of luck in one or the other situation are the main drivers of the defensive misery.
Was the derby win Liverpool’s chest burster?
We are certainly not going out on a limb when we predict ahead of the upcoming match between Newcastle and Everton that another defensive revelation of this kind would lead to the next away defeat. Incidentally, the last time there were four consecutive PL defeats away from home was in 2021, while the last time they conceded three or more goals in four PL away matches in a row was in September 1954…
However, there are at least some glimmers of hope offensively. Mo Salah scored his first Premier League goal of the 2023 calendar year on Monday and now has a total of 126 league goals for the Reds. Only a certain Robbie Fowler is still two goals ahead of the Egyptian in this category. In addition, the Dutch international Cody Gakpo finally celebrated his goal debut. Nevertheless, a goal spectacle is not to be expected on Saturday, especially as the Klopp team has failed to score at all in three of the last four matches in the English top flight.
Last Liverpool matches:
Premier League
14/02/2023 – Liverpool FC 2 – 0 Everton
04/02/2023 – Wolverhampton 3 – 0 Liverpool FC
FA Cup
29/01/2023 – Brighton 2 – 1 Liverpool FC
Premier League
21/01/2023 – Liverpool FC 0 – 0 Chelsea FC
FA Cup
18/01/2023 – Wolverhampton 0 – 1 Liverpool FC
Newcastle – Liverpool Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
The direct comparison also serves as an encouragement from LFC’s point of view. The fact is that the Magpies have not won any of the past twelve PL duels against the Reds, even conceding a total of eight defeats. 2015 was the last time a Newcastle team beat the Reds in the Premier League.
It is also interesting to note that Liverpool have not lost any of their last five matches at St James’ Park. Six consecutive unbeaten matches at Newcastle is unprecedented for the multi-time champions from the Beatles City.
Newcastle – Liverpool Tip
For the first time since September 2006, Newcastle are at least five places ahead of their Liverpool rivals in the table before a head-to-head clash. What sounds like a considerable gap is in fact “only” nine points and one match less played. So if the bet on an away win between Newcastle and Liverpool pays off on Saturday, the Reds can even dream of the Champions League again.
However, the stakes are pretty high at St. James Park, as the Black and Whites are still unbeaten at home, have not lost in 17 Premier League games and have by far the best defence in the league. In six of the past eight matches alone, they have kept a defensive clean sheet.
Because Klopp’s team has also shown great weaknesses in away games recently and regularly invited the opponent in, especially defensively, we believe that the betting odds on the visitors’ treble should be neglected before the Newcastle v Liverpool match. We believe in at least a point win for the home side and therefore combine the double chance 1X with the under 3.5. At Betano there are top odds of 2.12 for this, which we play with six units.
