Two teams in the waiting in a direct duel

At the very start of the Premier League season, the match set for Saturday night has it all. Newcastle and Aston Villa are still two of the most exciting projects in the entire league and are looking to stay that way in the new season.

The Newcastle vs Aston Villa prediction from the bookmakers indicates favouritism for the home side. The Magpies were also very difficult to beat in pre-season. In 2023/24, their own playing idea should mature even further, and to this end, the already high individual class has been improved once again.

It will be exciting to see what level these two clubs are already at at this stage. In any case, our Newcastle vs. Aston Villa tip is that the hosts will take the three points.

Newcastle – Statistics & current form

Last season, Newcastle developed into a very good side after some investment, helped by the takeover of the club. Under coach Eddie Howe, the Magpies have learnt how to operate very well in a compact manner, while at the same time always creating their own goal threat. The reward was a place that guarantees the Magpies a place in the UEFA Champions League.

In order to survive there, Livramento, Barnes and Tonali were signed for a total of 150 million euros. That sounds like a lot of money at first, but these players fit perfectly into the club’s plans. The offensive line around Gordon, Barnes, Almiron, Murphy, Isak and Wilson alone is outstanding. In the preparation, many of the typical play of the hosts could be seen.

However, not everything worked yet. The energy-sapping 2022/23 season resulted in a final phase in which only one of five games could be won. Here, however, one promptly recognised the team’s great strength, because Newcastle hardly ever lost. There were only five defeats in 38 games this season, no one had fewer.

Newcastle stands for structure and compactness

Newcastle are also a fancied opponent. Newcastle have not lost any of their last 14 home games against Aston Villa. They have not won against any other team in the Premier League so often. Even though the visitors are a strong opponent, the Newcastle vs Aston Villa odds suggest that the series will continue.

Structure and compactness are the name of the game for the Howe team. Last season, the Magpies conceded just 33 goals, only 14 of which came at home. This underlines once again how difficult this team is to play against. If things come back together quickly in defence, that won’t change much.

The Magpies are one of the best teams in the league. That’s why, ahead of the Newcastle v Aston Villa game, our prediction is also that the hosts will win the game.

Predicted Newcastle line-up:

Newcastle (Expected line-up) 4-3-3

Aston Villa – Statistics & current form

After Unai Emery took over, Aston Villa have been extremely positive, developing the good base that was already there. The form curve went steeply upwards, the team was very difficult to play against and developed its own identity. For the visitors, the first match after a decent preparation will be a perfect test against an opponent whose level they would like to reach.

The 2023 calendar year has been brilliant for the visitors so far. Aston Villa have won a lot of games this year and have picked up a lot of points, only Manchester City have done better in the Premier League. Diaby, Torres and Telemanns further strengthened the squad in the summer, and for the Birmingham club that means they are equipped when it comes to dealing with the heavier workload.

Aston Villa have won ten of their last 15 competitive matches. The Emery eleven varied a lot in their style, sometimes playing very straightforward and determined, but sometimes also creatively and technically at a high level. In preparation, various elements were further refined to ensure that pressing, stability, possession play and various changes of pace continue to succeed.

Can Aston Villa go one better away from home?

If there was one thing that could be criticised last season, it was their record away from home. Only six of 19 games were won, and while things got better under Emery, they still weren’t outstanding. Aston Villa scored 1.21 points per game away from home, which also explains why the Newcastle vs. Aston Villa betting odds show the aforementioned distribution of roles.

There is no need to worry too much about the defence, 46 goals conceded in the entire season were absolutely within the bounds. 51 goals were a solid record, but not outstanding. With Diaby, there should be even more forward momentum. So two stable teams will meet, of which Newcastle should have the advantage statistically. Therefore, in the run-up to the Newcastle vs. Aston Villa match, our value tip is that the home side will not lose and that less than 2.5 goals will be scored.

Predicted Aston Villa line-up:

Aston Villa (Expected line-up) 4-2-3-1

Newcastle – Aston Villa Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

171 matches have already been played between these two teams. Newcastle have won 73 of those matches and Aston Villa 58. 40 games ended in a draw. With 263:254 goals, Newcastle also have the upper hand in this respect.

Newcastle – Aston Villa Tip

Newcastle will be looking to build on their good pre-season and play at the top from the start. However, the same goes for Aston Villa, who have made a huge leap in the second half of the season and even managed to pick up more points than the Magpies in the calendar year.

Despite everything, the hosts are favourites. That’s why, ahead of the Newcastle v Aston Villa game, our tip is that the home side will win.