Arsenal want to get back into the Top 4

Several questions remained unanswered in the English Premier League this weekend. Among other things, the race for the last vacant Champions League spot has come to a head once again. Arsenal Football Club have lost their pole position to Tottenham ahead of Monday night’s crucial away game at St James’ Park with Newcastle United and are now two points off fourth place.

Although the odds before the Newcastle vs. Arsenal clash point to the Londoners being the favourites, it should by no means be neglected that the Magpies are an opponent who has played a very strong second half of the season so far and has even managed to register one more point in the last 17 games in the highest English division than their upcoming opponents from the capital.

Moreover, head coach Mikel Arteta’s young team has yet to prove that it can cope with the pressure mentioned above. Should a prediction of an away treble not pay off between Newcastle and Arsenal on Monday night, the Gunners would have their return to the top flight out of their own hands ahead of the final matchday.

They would therefore have to rely on the support of already relegated bottom side Norwich, who face Tottenham at home. No wonder that this scenario is to be avoided at all costs with a success of their own.

Newcastle – Statistics & current form

When Newcastle United Football Club was taken over by Saudi investors, the big plans of the new owners were still wearily smiled at. Within a very short time, they wanted to lift the traditional club into the Champions League. If we now look at the entire second half of the Premier League season, this goal for the coming season does not seem as unrealistic as it sounded a few months ago, when the club was still in a deep relegation mess.

Thanks to ten wins from the last 17 games (two draws, five draws), the Magpies have freed themselves from the dangerous zone of the standings and even occupy an outstanding fourth place in the isolated second-round table. Only Manchester City, Liverpool and Tottenham have scored better than coach Eddie Howe’s side since the start of the calendar year, and he certainly deserves a large share of the credit for the upturn.

Newcastle much more stable defensively now

Specially defensively, the Black and Whites have gone up two or three gears. 19 goals conceded in the last 17 matches is an impressively strong figure in that keeper Dubravka conceded 41 in the first 19 games this season. The static of the game has improved, the balance is right and there is no lack of self-confidence.

The fact that something is missing on the way to the top, however, became clear in the two most recent games, which were lost 1-0 against Liverpool and 5-0 at Manchester City. Given those two defeats, which incidentally were preceded by four successive wins, we believe the Magpies will want to be at their best in the final home game of the season.

Wilson and Trippier return

By the way, in six of the past eight seasons, the four-time English champions have always won the final home game of a round. We’re not ruling out the home side for Monday night’s clash between Newcastle and Arsenal either, adding to the argument that the iconic club have not only won six of their last seven PL matches at St James’ Park, but have only lost out once in nine of them.

Eddie Howe will have to do without the injured Shelvey, Fernandez, Lewis, Hayden and Willock. On the other hand, Kieran Trippier and Callum Wilson, two key players, have recently returned to the squad after injury. It is quite possible that both will now start from the beginning. Qualitatively, the 14th in the table, who could jump to eleventh place with a win, will get a real boost.

Predicted Newcastle line-up:
Dubravka; Trippier, Lascelles, Burn, Targett; Longstaff, Guimaraes, Joelinton; Almiron, Wilson, Saint-Maximin

Last matches played by Newcastle:

Premier League
08/05/2022 – Manchester City 5 – 0 Newcastle United

30/04/2022 – Newcastle United 0 – 1 Liverpool FC

23/04/2022 – Norwich 0 – 3 Newcastle United

21/04/2022 – Newcastle United 1 – 0 Crystal Palace

17/04/2022 – Newcastle United 2 – 1 Leicester

Arsenal – Statistics & current form

Regardless of whether Arsenal FC finish fourth or fifth in the league after next weekend, you have to give Mikel Arteta’s young side credit for a very decent season in which they have finally returned to the concert of the greats, at least at national level. But it is also clear that the Gunners would like to crown their solid performance with a place in the Champions League.

After Thursday’s bitter 3-0 defeat at their direct rivals from North London, the starting position has worsened. Because Spurs also won their home game against Burnley on Sunday, Arteta’s team has now dropped to fifth place. However, the capital still has the right to start in the CL in its own hands. The prerequisite is two victories in the final two matchdays.

How do the Gunners deal with the new starting position?

If we believe the odds in the Newcastle vs Arsenal clash, an away win at St James Park definitely seems within the realms of possibility. However, the rather one-sided odds distribution is surprising, especially as the Londoners have lost three of their last five away games in the English Premier League. Apart from that, Smith-Rowe, Saka and colleagues have also failed to win any of their three Monday matches this season.

To make matters worse, the former champions have “only” picked up 28 of their 66 points away from home. In 18 away games, there were nine wins, one draw and eight defeats. The negative goal difference (26:29) is another indication that the value between Newcastle and Arsenal on Monday evening should perhaps be placed in the favour of the hosts.

The Spanish coach, with his side under enormous pressure to finish fourth, also has the task of managing the load properly. While the Magpies last took to the pitch more than a week ago, the Gunners have only had a few days’ recovery time. Changes in personnel cannot be ruled out due to rotation. Definitely missing will be Tierney, Partey and the suspended Holding. Gabriel Magalhaes is also a question mark, so that in the worst case scenario the centre of the back four will have to be completely replaced.

Predicted Arsenal line-up:
Ramsdale; Cedric, Tomiyasu, White, Tavares; Xhaka, Elneny; Saka, Odegaard, Smith Rowe; Nketiah

Last matches played by Arsenal:

Premier League
13/05/2022 – Tottenham 3 – 0 Arsenal FC

08/05/2022 – Arsenal FC 2 – 1 Leeds

01/05/2022 – West Ham 1 – 2 Arsenal FC

23/04/2022 – Arsenal FC 3 – 1 Manchester United

21/04/2022 – Chelsea FC 2 – 4 Arsenal FC

Newcastle – Arsenal Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

Newcastle have lost to Arsenal 33 times in the Premier League. The Magpies have not lost to any other club as many times as they have against the Gunners. In the recent past, too, the black and whites have usually come away with nothing. This is underlined by 17 Arsenal wins from the last 18 PL duels.

In addition, the Londoners have recently won seven consecutive matches without conceding a goal. However, it has been a long time since the omens were as even as they are ahead of Monday’s match. As a reminder, Newcastle have actually picked up more points than the supposed favourites in the second leg.

Newcastle – Arsenal Tip

Monday night’s game in the English Premier League has it all. Although only one of the two teams still has a chance to reach the end of the season, the home side will of course want to celebrate a worthy end in the last home game of the season. All in all, we can look forward to an exciting duel between Newcastle and Arsenal. Lower betting odds are being offered on the away win.

However, we don’t necessarily agree with this assessment, as the Magpies have actually picked up more points than the Gunners in the second half of the season so far. In addition, Howe’s side have won six of their last seven home games and have only lost one of their last nine games at home to Liverpool. Arsenal have also lost three of their last five PL home games