Will the Rossoneri strike back once more?

Wednesday evening at St. James’ Park will decide for whom the 2023/24 season in Europe is over. The loser of the game will finish bottom of the group, while the winner could even progress to the Champions League round of 16 with a helping hand from Dortmund. However, the winner would at least continue in the Europa League. If, on the other hand, Newcastle draw with AC Milan, the Magpies would progress on goal difference

In other words: If the Rossoneri do not want to finish last in a Champions League group for the third time after 1999/2000 and 2021/22, they need a win in the English north-east. However, the prediction for Newcastle against AC Milan must take into account that the Lombards have won just one of their 21 away games in England in the main rounds of European competition to date (seven draws, 13 defeats) – a 1-0 win at Manchester United dating back to February 2005.

One reason why both teams picked up just five points in the Group of Death F and will have to hope for some help to advance to the Champions League round of 16 is the fact that both teams are full of injured players. Both teams have had to make up for the absence of a number of key players in recent matchdays and will not have a full squad available for the final group game on Wednesday evening.

Although betting on an away win is associated with a high risk, we believe the Rossoneri have the advantage due to factors that we will highlight in the following analysis. Overall, the ratio of risk, probability of occurrence and potential winnings is right for the outright bet. Both “Draw No Bet” and the double chance X2 are slightly less risky alternatives.

Newcastle – Statistics & current form

Newcastle United Football Club returned to the UEFA Champions League after 21 years thanks in part to money from the Saudi Arabian sovereign wealth fund Public Investment Fund, which has held a majority stake in the traditional club from the north-east of England since 2021.

Eddie Howe’s team famously found themselves in a group of death, but were not only able to show that they can keep up with top European teams in a 4:1 home win over Paris Saint-Germain on matchday two, but even took the lead in the table

Lost four of their last seven competitive matches

After two defeats against Borussia Dortmund, the Magpies had PSG on the brink of defeat in the second leg before a last-minute penalty saved the French champions (final score: 1:1). NUFC now have their backs to the wall. Even if Howe’s side win at home to Newcastle against AC Milan goes to plan, the Parisians’ away win at Dortmund’s Signal Iduna Park would mean that they would no longer be able to finish second.

That doesn’t make the situation any easier for the club, who have had very inconsistent results in recent weeks anyway. The Magpies have also lost four of their last seven competitive matches (two wins, one draw)

Nick Pope of all people is out now

While the Magpies have had some outstanding results since the beginning of November alone, such as the 1-0 win against Arsenal, the 4-1 win against Chelsea and the 1-0 win against Manchester United, they have recently lost two away games in a row in the Premier League within four days.

A surprising 3-0 defeat at Everton last Wednesday was followed by a 4-1 loss at Tottenham in Sunday’s dress rehearsal. The understrength north-east side will therefore be ill-equipped for the game, with keeper Nick Pope, the highest-rated goalkeeper in the Champions League in terms of chances thwarted, now out injured. The 31-year-old has conceded just five goals in five group games with an expected goals against average of 9.9.

Newcastle’s expected line-up:

AC Milan – Statistics & current form

Under long-serving coach Stefano Pioli, AC Milan did not cover themselves in glory on their Champions League comeback in the 2021/22 season, when they finished the group stage in the red lantern for only the second time in the club’s history after 1999/2000.

Last season, however, the Rossoneri advanced to the semi-finals of the top flight as reigning champions. “Il Diavolo” (the devil) actually wanted to build on this in the 2023/24 season. However, just like Newcastle, Milan only picked up five out of a possible 15 points

Won only one of 21 European away games in England

In fact, only an away win at St. James’ Park will save the Lombards from finishing bottom of the group again. However, the bookmakers do not believe in the seven-time Champions League winners, who are still number two in the all-time rankings behind record winners Real Madrid.

In the run-up to the second leg between Newcastle and AC Milan, the odds are very clearly against the Rossoneri, which is probably primarily due to their dismal European away record in the motherland of soccer. Il Diavolo have won just one of their 21 matches in England so far (seven draws, 13 defeats)

The biggest problem so far has been the lack of chances

Another argument against the Italians is the fact that none of the 32 teams in the Champions League group stage in the 2023/24 season scored fewer goals than AC Milan (just three). However, the truth is that the Rossoneri, who were also short of substitutes, could have scored a lot more.

In fact, no other team in the competition has underperformed their expected goals value as much as AC Milan, who scored just three goals (-4.9) with an xG of 7.9. The first leg, in which 25 shots were not enough to score in a goalless draw against NUFC, also fits in with this. However, Newcastle are now missing Nick Pope, who was the match-winner in that game…

Predicted AC Milan line-up:

Newcastle – AC Milan head-to-head comparison / H2H result

Head to head: 0 – 1 – 0

The first leg on September 19, 2023 was the first and only meeting between the two teams in a competitive international match. The goalless draw, in which AC Milan fired a total of 25 shots, means that the direct comparison between the two teams is even.

Newcastle – AC Milan betting tip

In our eyes, the betting odds for Newcastle v AC Milan are too clearly in favor of the British side, who have already lost their last Champions League home game against Dortmund 1-0 and have suffered four defeats in their last seven competitive games (two wins, one draw). Although the Rossoneri are not exactly in great form either, they impressed us far more in the first leg with 25 shots on target. The fact that Nick Pope, who was so strong in the Magpies’ goal in that game, is now out of action speaks all the more in the Italians’ favor

In addition, the Lombards also bring significantly more experience to St. James’ Park. Contrary to Milan’s poor away record in England, we therefore recommend predicting that the Rossoneri will win the game against AC Milan and thus at least continue in the Europa League.