Will Ancelotti build on his great record against his ex-club?

In his almost 30-year coaching career, Carlo Ancelotti has celebrated many successes. The 64-year-old has won the championship in all of Europe’s top leagues with his respective teams, and four (!) Champions League titles crown his almost incomparable career. The former Bayern coach’s least satisfying period, however, came at SSC Napoli, where he was relieved of his duties after less than 18 months in charge.

On Tuesday evening, “Carletto” returns to the foot of Vesuvius, this time in the service of the royals. In one of the absolute top matches of the second matchday in the UEFA Champions League group stage, Napoli clash with Real Madrid. Almost identical odds are offered for a bet on the three-way market.

The probability of a home win is rated at 36%, that of a visitor’s three at 37%. We can therefore expect an exciting duel between equals, the outcome of which may already give an indication of which team will win Group C, which also includes Union Berlin and Braga.

Napoli – Statistics & current form

Last season, everything went like clockwork for SSC Napoli. From the first matchday on, the Partenopei dominated the action at national level, finally celebrating their first Scudetto in over 30 years and also reaching the quarter-finals of the Champions League with great performances. Almost all the key players were retained, with only one change at the coaching position. Rudi Garcia succeeded Luciano Spalletti.

In the initial phase of the new season, it seemed as if the team needed a little more time to internalise the adapted ideas of their new head coach. Recently, however, the form curve has definitely been pointing in the right direction. After only two victories in the first five matchdays, they recently won against Udinese (4:1) and at the weekend in Lecce (4:0). Nevertheless, the Neapolitans are already four points behind the two Milanese clubs in third place.

Will Osimhen provide a Garcia novum?

Apart from that, of course, it must be taken into account that a completely different calibre awaits Victor Osimhen and Co. on Tuesday evening. The star striker of the “Gli Azzurri” has been the subject of some anxiety lately. The background to this was a post published by the club on social media, which gave the impression that a missed penalty by the Nigerian had been made fun of. Osimhen reacted angrily, deleting all pictures of his employer from his private profile and thus fuelling the ongoing transfer rumours for the coming transfer window(s).

Apparently, however, the hullabaloo surrounding his person does not seem to bother him any further, as Osimhen scored once in each of the two recent victories. Oddset are offering odds of 2.20 on another goal from the brawny attacker between Napoli and Real Madrid on Tuesday night.

Finally, it remains to be said that the Neapolitans are traditionally difficult to defeat in front of a home crowd in the top flight. Only two of the past 21 CL group matches in their own stadium were lost. Most recently, there were four home victories in a row in the group stage, in which at least three goals were scored. However, we would not bet on a continuation of this impressive series. On the one hand, because of the quality of the opponents. On the other hand, because coach Rudi Garcia has never (!) been able to celebrate two victories in a row in his 33 CL games so far. So after the 2-1 opening win in Braga, a personal record beckons for the Frenchman…

Predicted Napoli line-up:

SSC Napoli (Expected line-up) 4-3-3

Real Madrid – Statistics & current form

After suffering a derby defeat at Atletico Madrid (1:3), the royals have struck back in majestic fashion over the past week. First, the Galacticos celebrated an unchallenged 2-0 home win against Las Palmas, before winning the difficult guest game at the weekend against leaders Girona with 3-0 (!). Thanks to these two results, the “white ballet” has once again taken the lead in La Liga.

The greatest strength of Ancelotti’s team so far this season has been its defence. Since the Madrilenians have to make do without a top-class nine-man after Benzema’s departure, the capital giants would be well advised to make defensive adjustments and significantly reduce the number of goals conceded.

So far, they have done an excellent job, as the six goals conceded on the first eight match days in the Spanish top flight impressively prove. In five of the nine matches they have played in the competition, the Royals have not conceded a goal, and in eight out of nine cases their opponents have only managed to score one goal. If you want to use these statistics as an opportunity to bet once again that the Neapolitans will also score at most once, you can find interesting odds of a maximum of 1.65 between Napoli and Real Madrid.

Will Carlo Ancelotti celebrate his 10th win against Napoli?

In general, we definitely trust the Spaniards to win a point at the foot of Mount Vesuvius. Since 2013, the Galactics have not lost two away games in a row in the top flight. Since they lost their last match at Manchester City in pre-season, they are now threatened with a second defeat in a row, although Real naturally have enough experience, class and cleverness not to leave the pitch at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona as losers.

Carlo Ancelotti’s positive record against his former club should also be taken into account here. Of twelve games against the Partenopei, “Carletto” won nine (one draw, two defeats). On Tuesday evening, the Italian will once again have to make one or two difficult personnel decisions.

Will the old stars Kroos and Modric remain on the bench? Will it be too soon for the ailing Alaba to start? Does he trust Joselu, who has scored four goals in his last six matches, to play up front, or will he start Bellingham again as a “completely false nine”? Should the Englishman start from the beginning, which is to be expected, he would replace the previous record holder Trent Alexander-Arnold with 23 CL appearances as Under 21. The ex-Dortmund man’s seven goals scored also equate to a best of course.

Predicted Real Madrid line-up:

Real Madrid (Expected line-up) 4-3-1-2

Napoli – Real Madrid Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

Four meetings have taken place between these clubs so far. Napoli have not won any of these four matches against Real Madrid. 2016/17 was the last time the clubs faced each other in the Champions League. In the round of 16, the Spaniards won 6:2 after a first leg and a second leg.

In general, the Neapolitans did not score more than one goal in any of the four games in question. To make matters worse, the Royals have won 14 of their last 15 Champions League matches against Italian teams and have already celebrated a total of 28 (!) victories against Serie A teams in the top flight – a record.

Napoli – Real Madrid Tip

The top match in Group C and also one of the absolute highlight matches on the second CL matchday will be played by Napoli and Real Madrid on Tuesday evening. According to the betting odds, the bookmakers are currently finding it very difficult to put either of the two teams in the role of favourites. The corresponding odds are close together and suggest an interesting and, above all, balanced showdown.

However, the home side should be concerned about the fact that the Royals have won 14 of their last 15 CL games against Italian teams and were also in really good form at the weekend with a 3-0 win in Girona. The Neapolitan form curve has also been on the rise recently, but the complicated tasks have been limited so far this season. The only top match at home against runners-up Lazio Roma, however, was a significant 2-1 defeat.

Anyway, we have the feeling that the reigning Scudetto winners are still in a transitional phase after the change of coach and might need some time to build on the great performances from the previous season. Despite the home advantage, we therefore refrain from betting in the direction of the home side and additionally argue with the fact that the Galacticans’ defence has worked well so far.

They have already kept a clean sheet in five of their nine competitive matches, including the first group game at home against Union Berlin. Only Atletico Madrid have scored more than one goal against Ancelotti’s side this season. Our approach, therefore, is to push for a bet between Napoli and Real Madrid that the home side will score a maximum of one goal on Tuesday evening.