Summit in arguably the tightest group
It was to be expected that things could get tight before the final matchday in the Europa League group stage. However, the match between Napoli and Leicester is more explosive than perhaps first suspected due to the constellation before this matchday.
In the run-up to the match between Napoli and Leicester, the odds indicate a favourite role for the hosts. However, this is not extremely pronounced, which is partly due to the fact that Napoli have recently lost some ground and have not been as convincing in the Europa League as in Serie A anyway.
It cannot be ruled out that the slide rules will have to be brought out again on the last matchday. The match in Naples kicks off at 18:45 on Thursday.
Napoli – Statistics & current form
Before looking at SSC Napoli in more detail, it is worth taking a look at the constellation in this group. As a reminder, the group winner advances to the Round of 16, second place qualifies for the Intermediate Round and the third-placed team moves down to the Conference League. Before the final matchday, Leicester lead with eight points, Spartak Moscow follow with seven, Napoli also have seven points and Legia Warsaw are on six. Apart from the fact that Leicester can no longer finish fourth, just about anything is possible somehow under any circumstances.
For Napoli, that means a good performance and a win are important. After all, if the Italians win, they will be in the knockout round, whether as group winners or runners-up. But the task could be easier, because the Foxes are a tough opponent. Before the match between Napoli and Leicester, the betting odds therefore only show the Partenopei as slight favourites. Especially offensively, the team knows how to please, scoring twice or more in 16 competitive matches.
Napoli fight against the trend
Napoli is playing a very good season under coach Luciano Spalletti. The team is currently in third place in Serie A, but is in the middle of a thrilling title race involving four teams. For a long time, the Partenopei looked very stable, but in the last few weeks, also due to some injuries, the construct wobbled here and there.
Against Sassuolo, Napoli gave away a 2-0 lead and drew, against Atalanta, a 2-1 lead was not enough, Napoli lost 3-2. There have been four defeats in competitive matches, two of them at home. Now they want to win against Leicester, because Spalletti’s team has a lot of plans in Europe. In the five games in the group phase involving Napoli, 20 goals were scored and entertainment should be guaranteed in this game as well.
And especially as the Italian defence has also noticeably weakened in recent weeks, our prediction ahead of the Napoli v Leicester match is that both teams will score at least once.
Predicted Napoli line-up:
Ospina – di Lorenzo, Manolas, Rrahmani, Mario Rui – Demme, Elmas, Zielinski – Lozano, Politano, Mertens
Last matches played by Napoli:
Serie A
12/04 2021 – SSC Napoli 2 – 3 Atalanta Bergamo
12/01 2021 – Sassuolo 2 – 2 SSC Napoli
11/28 2021 – SSC Napoli 4 – 0 Lazio Roma
Europa League Grp. C
11/24 2021 – Spartak Moscow 2 – 1 SSC Napoli
Serie A
11/21 2021 – Inter Milan 3 – 2 SSC Napoli
Leicester – Statistics & current form
Leicester City are currently unable to repeat their successes from the previous season. The Foxes are not playing badly, but they slip up too often. The high load is noticeable, but the chances of advancing are not bad, because a draw is enough. Therefore, the guest from England can rather tactic and wait, in addition, that with Vardy & Co. some very good counterattacking players are available.
At the weekend, Leicester had another game in which they showed some promise, but not everything went well. At Aston Villa, the Foxes lost a game that was very competitive for a long time with 1:2. That was already the seventh defeat in a match this season, eleventh place in the Premier League speaks for mediocrity.
However, this is not a catastrophe, because Leicester’s expectations have risen, but qualifying for Europe every year seems to be out of the question. The English team also has some balance problems, but like Napoli, Leicester is known for its spectacle. In games involving the visitors, 18 goals were scored in the Europa League. This is another reason why it is worth looking at the odds for more than 2.5 or even 3.5 goals.
Leicester want to avoid an open exchange of blows
Yes, both teams stand for spectacle and have provided a lot of entertainment this season. But because of that, it doesn’t have to be the aim to do the same in this crucial game. Napoli are a good team and can pick an opponent apart in seconds. Leicester should therefore avoid a completely open exchange of blows.
But coach Rodgers has not been able to generate the stability lately, not even with more defensive alignments. The last match without conceding a goal was in September against Millwall in the EFL Cup (2:0), in the Premier League Leicester has been waiting for a game without a goal since the first matchday. This only reinforces that before the Napoli vs Leicester match, our tip is that both teams will score at least once.
Predicted Leicester line-up:
Schmeichel – Castagne, Söyüncü, Evans, Bertrand – Ndidi, Soumaré, Tielemans, Maddison, Barnes – Vardy
Last matches played by Leicester:
Premier League
12/05 2021 – Aston Villa 2 – 1 Leicester
12/01 2021 – Southampton 2 – 2 Leicester
11/28 2021 – Leicester 4 – 2 Watford
Europa League Grp. C
11/25 2021 – Leicester 3 – 1 Legia Warsaw
Premier League
11/20 2021 – Leicester 0 – 3 Chelsea London
Napoli – Leicester Direct Comparison / H2H Record
The first leg in England was the first direct meeting between these two teams. It ended in a 2-2 draw, so neither team is ahead in the head-to-head comparison
Napoli – Leicester Tip
It’s all set up for a thrilling game between Napoli and Leicester! Both teams are very good offensively, defensively vulnerable and both need one last good game or result to advance. And: You also have to pay attention to the parallel match! Napoli currently have some problems with form, Leicester lack consistency.
There is no clear favourite, even if Leicester is already covered with the higher odds. Overall, however, a lot of the focus is on the goals scored and conceded by both teams, so ahead of the Napoli vs Leicester match, our tip is that both teams will score.
