Will Eintracht pull off the next European miracle?
At the foot of Mount Vesuvius, something historic will definitely happen on Wednesday evening. Either SSC Napoli or Eintracht Frankfurt will advance to the quarter-finals of the UEFA Champions League for the first time in their club’s history. At the moment, of course, the advantage clearly lies with the Neapolitans, who won the first leg in the German banking metropolis three weeks ago with a commanding 2-0 victory and therefore have at least one and a half legs in the round of the last eight.
Coach Luciano Spalletti’s team are also favourites to win the second leg in front of their home crowd. This is primarily due to the outstanding season the Partenopei have played to date.
But at the same time it is also due to the fact that on the Bundesliga side, Randal Kolo Muani and Jesper Lindström, the two most dangerous offensive players, will not be available. Between Napoli and Frankfurt, betting on a home win after normal time therefore brings just a 1.50 in the top spot.
A further complicating factor is that the Hessians have also had a few somewhat weaker performances at national level recently and, as things stand, will have to travel to Campania without any away fans. Nevertheless, one should not make the mistake of writing off the SGE too early on a magical European Cup night.
In the recent past, Eintracht have usually been at their best when hardly anyone was expecting them. The away victories at FC Barcelona in 2021/22 or at Sporting Lisbon on the last day of the CL group stage in 2022/23 are just two examples. Nevertheless, it takes a lot of optimism and imagination to make a prediction on the Eagles’ progress ahead of Napoli’s Round of 16 second leg against Frankfurt.
Napoli – Statistics & current form
SSC Napoli are the biggest discovery of the current season at the top European level. In Serie A, the Partenopei can be virtually congratulated on the championship after only 26 completed match days. They are 18 points ahead of their closest rivals. Coach Luciano Spalletti’s team has not only won 22 league games, but also has the best attack and the most stable defence in the Italian top flight. Impressive!
The team from the foot of Mount Vesuvius has also been outstanding at international level. In Group A, they scored an impressive 15 points from six matches. Only the away match at Anfield Road against Liverpool FC was lost 0:2. In total, Kvaratskhelia, Osimhen and Co. have already scored 22 Champions League goals in the current season. Only Juventus Torino and Inter Milan managed to score more goals in a single season in the top flight in 2002/03!
Can Napoli even win the Champions League?
For the Neapolitans, however, the European year should be far from over, as their chances of progressing could not be better after a 2-0 first leg win in Frankfurt’s Stadtwald. Even when looking at the potential overall winner in the Champions League, the Spalletti team is now taken very seriously.
Especially in view of the fact that the Gli Azzurri are now unbeaten in eleven home matches in the most important international club competition (eight wins, three draws) and were also able to win all three matches in front of their own fans in the group phase that ended at the end of last year. They always scored at least three goals of their own. In fact, they scored a total of eleven.
The main burden of the sensationally good offence rests on the two protagonists Kvicha Kvaratskhelia and Victor Osimhen. The Georgian newcomer, who has already earned himself the nickname “Kvaradona”, already has four assists in his first CL season and is also responsible for the creation of most goal chances. Osimhen, who was once discarded by VfL Wolfsburg, has netted 19 times in 22 league games and, like Giovanni di Lorenzo, could now become the first ever Napoli player to score for the Partenopei in Champions League first and second legs.
Last matches played by Napoli:
Serie A
11/03/2023 – SSC Napoli 2 – 0 Atalanta Bergamo
04/03/2023 – SSC Napoli 0 – 1 Lazio Roma
25/02/2023 – Empoli 0 – 2 SSC Napoli
Champions League Final
22/02/2023 – Eintracht Frankfurt 0 – 2 SSC Napoli
Serie A
18/02/2023 – Sassuolo 0 – 2 SSC Napoli
Frankfurt – Statistics & current form
The task for Eintracht Frankfurt on Wednesday evening could hardly be more complicated. Not only that with SSC Napoli one of the form-strongest teams in Europe is waiting, but also the fact that the first leg was lost with 0:2, made the hopes of the SGE supporters dwindle.
Although their heroes have already been good for some football festivals on the European stage in the past and have usually been very happy to take on the role of the underdog, the first leg was a clear indication that the upcoming Italian champions might be at least one size too big for the eagle bearers at the moment.
SGE with at least one goal in all CL away games
The search for possible encouragers for the Hessians is also proving very difficult. On a positive note, however, coach Oliver Glasner’s side have scored at least once in all three of their Champions League away games so far this season and have even scored five away goals in total
With Randal Kolo Muani suspended or Jesper Lindström injured, however, creating goal-scoring chances will also be a challenge. It is therefore even conceivable that the odds will pay off between Napoli and Frankfurt if the black and red remain without a goal of their own at the Stadio Diego Maradona. For this, a 2.10 can be dusted off at the top. If you even believe in a zero defeat, you can find a 2.50.
Does Eintracht really have to do without the support of its own fans?
Finally, it should give pause for thought that Eintracht will in all likelihood have to play this highlight match without their own fans. After several back-and-forths, the SGE officials announced on Monday that they would completely return the away contingent. However, a final decision has not yet been made. A reversal of the trend does not seem out of the question. Already, the highly controversial decision of the home authorities to exclude the visiting supporters has caused quite a stir.
Furthermore, it should not be forgotten that the Hessians are definitely not at the peak of their powers at the moment, but have clear disadvantages in terms of form compared to the Italians. Rode and Co. have been without a win in the Bundesliga three times in a row. The sixth-placed team in the table has even been waiting for a win away from home for six league games.
Last matches played by Frankfurt:
Bundesliga
11/03/2023 – Eintracht Frankfurt 1 – 1 VfB Stuttgart
05/03/2023 – VfL Wolfsburg 2 – 2 Eintracht Frankfurt
25/02/2023 – RB Leipzig 2 – 1 Eintracht Frankfurt
Champions League Final
22/02/2023 – Eintracht Frankfurt 0 – 2 SSC Napoli
Bundesliga
19/02/2023 – Eintracht Frankfurt 2 – 0 Werder Bremen
Napoli – Frankfurt Direct comparison / H2H-Balance
After two victories by Eintracht Frankfurt against Napoli in the 1994/95 UEFA Cup Round of 16 (both 1-0), which admittedly had little relevance for the upcoming clash, the Partenopei were able to prevail 2-0 in the first leg at Deutsche Bank Park three weeks ago.
The Hessians managed to keep up in the early stages, but as the game progressed and Randal Kolo Muani was sent off, their resistance was broken. Osimhen before half-time and di Lorenzo after half-time scored the final goals. Before that, Kvaratkshelia had even missed a penalty kick. The Neapolitans have thus missed three of the six penalties in the current CL season.
If you want to take this curious statistic as an opportunity to bet on the Bundesliga team reaching the next round on Wednesday evening after a penalty shoot-out, you will find odds of 41.00 between Napoli and Frankfurt. For comparison: In terms of the odds, that is as likely as Fortuna Düsseldorf being relegated this season.
Napoli – Frankfurt Tip
For possibly the last time indefinitely, numerous Eintracht Frankfurt players will get to hear the Champions League anthem live on the pitch on Wednesday evening. It is almost impossible for the Hessians to reach the next round after the 0:2 home defeat in the first leg. The Neapolitans are too strong and the Glasner eleven did not scare enough three weeks ago or in the last Bundesliga games. Especially away from home.
Accordingly, it is absolutely understandable that the betting odds before the second leg between Napoli and Frankfurt are clearly in favour of the Serie A leaders. Only 1.50 is offered for a home win. The situation is aggravated for the visitors by the fact that important players such as Kolo Muani or Lindström are not available and the team from the foot of Vesuvius has not lost in its last eleven home CL matches.
We have therefore decided to bet on a home win between Napoli and Frankfurt. If you want to push the odds a little higher, you can combine the likely success of Spalletti’s team with the over 1.5, after all, Napoli have already scored an outstanding 22 goals in the competition so far. On the other hand, we wouldn’t be surprised if the SGE’s short-staffed attack were to go without a goal of its own.
