Does Milan keep Napoli’s kryptonite?
In the UEFA Champions League, the hot phase is coming up in these days and weeks. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the quarterfinal second legs will determine which four teams will make it to the final round. Two Milan teams put themselves in a promising starting position in the previous week. Milan beat Napoli 1-0 at home and Inter won 2-0 at Benfica Lisbon to set up a city derby in the semifinals!
But before that, the two heavyweights from the internationally recognized fashion city still have to get the second 90 minutes (plus X) over. Especially in the case of the Rossoneri, this could be very complicated, after all, Coach Pioli’s charges travel to Campania to face the undisputed Serie A leaders, who certainly have their sights set on a lot after last Wednesday’s narrow defeat. Before the kick-off between Napoli and AC Milan, the bet on the Partenopei’s home win is therefore also offered with the lower odds.
Of course, this Italian quarterfinal is given added explosiveness by the fact that the red and black managed to defeat the Neapolitans twice in April alone. The last trip to the Stadio Diego Armanda Maradona even ended in a 4-0 win for the Lombards, who could also now become the first team since Lazio Roma in 1994/95 to beat Napoli for the third time in a season.
The following paragraphs will tell you which factors will play a decisive role in the eagerly awaited second leg and which players will most likely replace the suspended key players Kim & Anguissa. In order to be able to make a suitable Napoli vs. AC Milan prediction, it is also advisable to listen to another expert opinion from DAZN’s Italy expert Christian Bernhard.
Napoli – statistics & current form
Surely the SSC Napoli players and officials would have wished for a different result in the first leg. Despite the 0-1 defeat at the San Siro, however, the Partenopei acted pleasingly for long stretches and could have achieved at least a draw with a slightly better chance exploitation. All in all, the performance shown is encouraging for the upcoming second leg, especially since it will take place in the home stadium.
Spalletti’s team has been an absolute force at home so far this season. In Serie A, there have been eleven wins from 15 home games (two draws, two defeats). In the UEFA Champions League, meanwhile, they have won all four of their home matches in the group stage and the round of 16. The players from the foot of Mount Vesuvius always scored three or more goals. In total, they scored 14 goals in four matches, an average of 3.5 per home match.
On a positive note, the Neapolitans have now won twelve Champions League home games in a row without defeat. Their last CL defeat in front of their own fans came in November 2017, when they lost 4-2 to Manchester City.
Napoli has noticeably slowed down
Despite this, it should also not be disregarded that the Blues have lost the flow of past phases of the season. Especially in terms of play, the Partenopei in recent matches but owed a lot. This was also the case at the weekend, when the team drew 0-0 at home against relegation candidates Hellas Verona, even though coach Spalletti sent an improved B-team onto the pitch and only substituted a few key players in the final phase.
Among them, by the way, was the personified hope of the Neapolitans: Victor Osimhen. The Nigerian striker missed the first leg in Milan due to injury, but will now return to the starting eleven. In the fourth direct duel of the season, the FC Bayern transfer target will now make his first appearance against the Rossoneri. Osimhen will change the game, on the one hand because of his own scoring threat. On the other hand, however, equally because of his pure presence, which will bind defenders and create spaces for other Napoli offensive players.
Therefore, it is definitely conceivable to target the odds for Osimhen to score before the second leg Napoli vs AC Milan, or to target the home win of the Serie A leaders. The absences of Min-Jae Kim and Frank Anguissa will not change that. Juan Jesus is likely to replace Kim in the starting eleven, while Mario Rui may have hopes of playing in central midfield alongside Zielinski and Lobotka.
Last matches of Napoli:
Serie A
- 15/04/2023 – SSC Napoli 0 – 0 Verona
Champions League Final
- 13/04/2023 – AC Milan 1 – 0 SSC Napoli
Serie A
- 07/04/2023 – Lecce 1 – 2 SSC Napoli
- 03/04/2023 – SSC Napoli 0 – 4 AC Milan
- 19/03/2023 – FC Torino 0 – 4 SSC Napoli
AC Milan – statistics & current form
Only twice in their impressive Champions League history have multiple European Cup winners Milan failed to reach the next round when winning the first leg. Consequently, the Rossoneri now have a very appealing starting position in the race for their first CL semifinal appearance since 2006/07.
Looking at various statistics, the promising constellation becomes even clearer. For example, the Lombards have won all of their last three competitive games at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. At the beginning of April, there was an outright 4-0 triumph at the foot of Mount Vesuvius.
Are the Milan defenses once again very solid?
Also worth highlighting is the defensive strength of the Pioli eleven at international level. In the last five Champions League games, Milan actually remained without conceding a goal. The last time the red and black team had a longer clean sheet streak (seven matches), they even made it to the final in 2004/05. The Italian top club has been able to thank the in-form Mike Maignan, who in his current form is certainly one of the best three goalkeepers in Europe, time and again.
The fact that we still prefer the odds in the direction of the host between Napoli and AC Milan is also due, among other things, to the fact that the Rossoneri have had quite a bit of luck in all three knockout games so far. Apart from that, only two of the past eight matches have been won away from home at league level. In the same period, they have suffered four defeats. Fifth place in the away table is not up to the club’s standards, nor is fourth place in the intermediate standings, just two points ahead of city rivals Inter.
In the end, we expect a Milan team focused on its own defense, which will want to get into the switching game again and again, especially through Rafael Leao. The longer they can keep a clean sheet at the back, the better their chances of advancing. In the event of an early deficit, however, a defeat with a two- or three-goal difference may be on the cards.
Last matches of AC Milan:
Series A
- 15/04/2023 – Bologna 1 – 1 AC Milan
Champions League Final
- 13/04/2023 – AC Milan 1 – 0 SSC Napoli
Serie A
- 08/04/2023 – AC Milan 0 – 0 Empoli
- 03/04/2023 – SSC Napoli 0 – 4 AC Milan
- 19/03/2023 – Udinese 3 – 1 AC Milan
Napoli – AC Milan Direct comparison / H2H balance
Actually, Napoli and Milan should know each other very well before the now upcoming fourth duel of the season. In particular, the fact that this is now the third meeting in the current month ensures – one might think – that the coaches no longer have any big surprises in store.
However, the quarterfinal second leg cannot be compared with previous encounters. On the one hand, because the starting position changes the approaches. Secondly, because of the return of Victor Osimhen, who never played in the previous three games. Accordingly, we don’t give much importance at all to the Rossoneri’s two most recent victories (4-0 and 1-0), don’t give too much weight to Milan’s three Serie A away wins in Naples either, and thus conclude that the Napoli vs. AC Milan prediction is hardly influenced by the historical or current head-to-head.
Napoli vs AC Milan prediction
Not only the tifosi will be looking quite eagerly at the Neapolitan soccer temple named after club icon and world footballer Diego Armando Maradona on Tuesday night, but of course soccer fans around the world. Everything is still open before the all-Italian second leg at the foot of Mount Vesuvius, although the Rossoneri have the slightly better starting position after their 1-0 win a week ago.
However, if we look at the betting odds on the three-way market between Napoli and AC Milan, it becomes clear that the best bookmakers favor the home side. This assessment is primarily based on the magnificent season that the Serie A leader has played so far. In addition, twelve unbeaten Champions League home games in a row are also encouraging. In 2022/23, there were four wins in four home games in the top division – plus 14 goals scored.
Although Milan have recently gone five straight games without conceding a goal in Europe’s premier club competition and defeated Napoli twice in April, including Clean Sheet, we agree with the oddsmakers’ assessment and prefer a home win bet ahead of the second leg Napoli vs AC Milan
