Will Morocco achieve historic success?
The field of participants at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar is made up of four world champions, two runners-up, one European champion and one glaring outsider. On Saturday afternoon at 4 pm, the two teams that have never played in a World Cup final will face each other. In this preview, you will find important information, statistics and recommendations to help you make your predictions for the Morocco vs Portugal clash.
The Winter World Cup already brought a few surprises, but from the knockout stage at the latest, the favourites almost completely lived up to their role. The only exception was the Spanish team, which surprisingly lost out to the Lions of Atlas.
This is only the fourth time that an African team has reached a World Cup quarter-final. The Moroccan team can make history, as there has never been an African team in a World Cup semi-final. However, odds of well over 3.00 are being offered between Morocco and Portugal for the Regragui eleven to progress.
The 2016 European champions are therefore the clear favourites with the bookmakers, which is understandable after a brilliant 6-1 victory over Switzerland in the last 16. The match for quarter-final number three kicks off at 4pm on Saturday, with the winner of the match facing the winner between England and France in the final round.
Morocco – Statistics & current form
30 matches, 20 wins, seven draws and only three defeats were achieved by Serbian head coach Vahid Halilhodzic as head coach of the Moroccan selection. Nevertheless, he was relieved of his duties in the summer of 2022. Under him, neither Hakim Ziyech nor Noussair Mazraoui would have found a place in the World Cup squad, as he banned them from the squad for indiscipline. He was succeeded by Walid Regragui, a Moroccan, who naturally pardoned the duo. A courageous decision on the part of the federation, which has since proven to be spot on.
Bono becomes a hero
In their sixth World Cup appearance, Morocco reached the knockout stages for only the second time this year. In 1986 in Mexico, they also made it past the preliminary round before suffering a narrow 1-0 defeat to Germany thanks to a Matthäus goal. Although Morocco left runners-up Croatia and co-favourites Belgium behind in the preliminary round, hardly anyone believed they could surprise Spain.
They were only the second African team (after Senegal in 2002) to win a knockout match against a European team. Once again, the defence stood out, with Sevilla goalkeeper Bono keeping a clean sheet for the third time in the tournament.
Only his central defender Naif Aguerd beat him in the 2-1 win over Canada. Morocco kept a clean sheet for 120 minutes in their clash with Spain, but needed a bit of luck in the last minute of injury time when Sarabia hit the post. After that, Bono became the ultimate hero, saving three penalties.
Only Brazil (1986) and Italy (1990) have conceded one goal on their way to the World Cup quarter-finals. Morocco have not been known for a clean sheet, as it took the Lions of the Atlas 16 World Cup matches to keep three clean sheets.
Morocco defy the statistics
Qualitatively, Morocco has a team that consists almost exclusively of well-known European legionnaires. This run of success was nevertheless not to be expected. In the biggest match in the federation’s history, Morocco will once again focus on defence, which is why the bookmakers are offering odds of just 1.66 on the under 2.5 between Morocco and Portugal.
With only four goals, 3.1 expected goals, ten shots on goal, 41 contacts in the opponent’s 16 and an average of only 32.3 per cent possession, the Moroccans are the “weakest” quarter-finalists in all these categories. However, as we all know, football is a results sport and with the carefree attitude as well as the large portion of self-confidence, Morocco is a dangerous underdog.
Predicted Morocco line-up:
Bono – Mazraoui, Saiss, Aguerd, Hakimi – Amallah, Amrabat, Ounahi – Boufal, En-Nesyri, Ziyech
Last matches played by Morocco:
WM Final Round
06/12/2022 – Morocco (3)0 – 0(0) Spain
World Cup Group F
01/12/2022 – Canada 1 – 2 Morocco
27/11/2022 – Belgium 0 – 2 Morocco
23/11/2022 – Morocco 0 – 0 Croatia
Friendlies
17/11/2022 – Morocco 3 – 0 Georgia
Portugal – Statistics & current form
Not only must the Moroccan federation be praised by now for the courage of the personnel decision made, but this is also true of Portuguese head coach Fernando Santos. Some might call his actions an “insult to his majesty”, but the majority of Portugal’s fans have already demanded a place on the bench for Cristiano Ronaldo. The 37-year-old is an exceptional footballer and certainly still in top form, but on the pitch he is no longer the difference-maker he once was. For the first time since 2008, Ronaldo sat on the bench at a major event (31 games in a row).
His replacement, 21-year-old Goncalo Ramos, of all people, was Man of the Match in the round of 16 against Switzerland. With three goals and one assist, the Benfica attacker definitely justified his place in the starting line-up. Ramos thus probably heralds the beginning of the end for the great superstar.
Eight different goal scorers
With their half-dozen against the Swiss, Portugal have now increased their goal tally at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar to twelve. Of particular note here is the fact that those twelve goals were scored by eight different players.
Portugal has never had more different goal scorers at a major event. Moreover, only at the 1966 finals did Portugal score more goals than at Qatar (17 at that time). The outstanding player throughout the tournament so far has been Bruno Fernandes, who has had a hand in five of those 12 goals (two goals, three assists).
The European favourites certainly had far less energy wasted in their round of 16 match and should therefore definitely gain an advantage as the game progresses. The 2016 European champions’ record in the World Cup quarter-finals also speaks in their favour. The Selecao das Quinas have never been eliminated at this stage of the tournament. In 1966, they beat Korea 5:3, and in 2006 they defeated England on penalties.
Predicted line-up of Portugal:
Diogo Costa – Raphael Guerreiro, Ruben Dias, Pepe, Diego Dalot – Bernardo Silva, William Carvalho, Otavio – Joao Felix, Goncalo Ramos, Bruno Fernandes
Last matches played by Portugal:
WM Final Round
07/12/2022 – Portugal 6 – 1 Switzerland
World Cup Group H
02/12/2022 – South Korea 2 – 1 Portugal
29/11/2022 – Portugal 2 – 0 Uruguay
24/11/2022 – Portugal 3 – 2 Ghana
Friendly matches
18/11/2022 – Portugal 4 – 0 Nigeria
Morocco – Portugal Direct comparison / H2H Ranking
The 2022 World Cup quarter-final in Qatar will be the third meeting between the two teams. The first two duels also took place in the course of a World Cup. In 1986, the Moroccan side beat the Portuguese 3-1 in the group stage. Four years ago in Russia, Santos’ side came out on top 1-0 thanks to a Cristiano Ronaldo goal.
Morocco – Portugal Tip
The Moroccan team is dreaming of a big coup, but is well aware of its own (underdog) role. With a huge amount of passion and commitment, the Lions of the Atlas are an extremely difficult opponent. Portugal are of course the favourites, but there is no value to be found between Morocco and Portugal when betting on the 2016 European champions. A 1.66 on the three-way is not really lucrative.
The underdogs from North Africa will once again not let the ball circulate much in their own ranks, but try to make the spaces tight and become dangerous in the transition game. A fourth win for Bono is not to be expected, as the Portuguese team has been too strong so far. However, Portugal conceded at least one goal in three of their four matches, so the prediction for both teams to score in the quarter-final between Morocco and Portugal is recommended with five units.
Portugal look more liberated without CR7 and are even more unpredictable. An early goal – within the first 30 minutes – would not really be surprising. Morocco would then have to open up and invest more in their own forward play. With the existing tempo, Morocco definitely has advantages against Pepe & Co. and should also create chances.
