Will Holland stay in pole position in Group G?

With two matchdays to go, perhaps the most exciting and interesting starting position in European World Cup qualifying is Group G. No less than three teams can still hope for the first two places. The Oranje are in pole position, and just four points would be enough for them to win their group and book a direct ticket to Qatar 2022. However, the tasks in Montenegro and at home against Norway will by no means be self-sufficient.

If we look at the odds before the match between Montenegro and Holland, it quickly becomes clear that the team of Bondscoach Louis van Gaal is the clear favourite. At the top, just 1.30 is offered for an away win, which corresponds to a probability of 77%. In terms of quality alone, the Elftal naturally have the advantage, but they are also under more pressure.

The first leg of the game between Montenegro and Holland also underlined the fact that, under normal circumstances, a prediction on a three-legged favourite should pay off. Memphis Depay, Gigi Wijnaldum and Co. easily won 4-0 in front of their home crowd. If the Dutch win their fifth qualifying match in a row this weekend, they will need just one point against Norway on the last matchday to secure their place in the sun in Group G for good.

Montenegro – Statistics & current form

The Montenegrin national football team would have loved to have fought seriously for a place in the 2022 World Cup finals right up to the end, but a period of weakness in which only one meagre point came out of four games between the end of March and the beginning of September meant that the proud football nation had to bid a premature farewell to the realistic thought of qualifying for a major tournament as an independent country for the first time.

The bottom line is that there were some decent efforts, for example in the 2:2 against the Turks or in individual phases of the games against Norway and Holland. In the end, however, the necessary consistency and probably also the quality of the individual players is lacking.

Will Montenegro tip the scales in Group G?

Nevertheless, a reasonable conclusion can be drawn. In their eight qualifying matches, the Falcons celebrated three victories, drew twice and also conceded three defeats. The goal ratio reads absolutely balanced, with eleven goals scored and just as many conceded. But: All eleven goals were scored against the underdogs Latvia and Gibraltar. The Eastern Europeans failed to score against Turkey, Norway and Holland, which reinforces our bet on a handicap victory for the favourites between Montenegro and Holland.

However, if you are looking for arguments that might speak more in favour of the hosts, the home advantage must certainly be mentioned. Even though the Sokoli have virtually no chance of climbing to second place, it can be assumed that the supporters present will frenetically support coach Radulovic’s team.

However, it would be presumptuous to say that the Falcons are particularly strong at home, especially as they have only won three of their last nine matches at home. Moreover, since the beginning of 2020, they have suffered disappointing home results against Luxembourg (1:2), Latvia (0:0) and Israel (1:3). It’s hard to imagine that the secret World Cup favourites from the land of the tulips, of all countries, will show the slightest sign of weakness in Podgorica and fail to record a commanding victory.

Montenegro’s likely line-up:
Mijatovic; Vukcevic, Vujacic, Tomasevic, Radunovic; Marusic, Jankovic, Kosovic, Haksabanovic; Jovetic, Djurdjevic

Last matches played by Montenegro:

World Cup Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. G
10/11 2021 – Norway 2 – 0 Montenegro

10/08 2021 – Gibraltar 0 – 3 Montenegro

09/07 2021 – Montenegro 0 – 0 Latvia

09/04 2021 – Netherlands 4 – 0 Montenegro

09/01 2021 – Turkey 2 – 2 Montenegro

Holland – Statistics & current form

For several years, the Dutchman had to settle for a national team that was average at best. For example, the former European champion missed the 2016 European Championship in France as well as the World Cup two years later in Russia. Most of the time, one had the feeling that the Bonds coach, who had just taken office, had a hard time forming a functioning collective out of the undoubtedly existing player potential.

Since the beginning of August 2021, Louis van Gaal, an old acquaintance, has been in charge of the Dutch association. In what is already his third term in office, the 70-year-old is supposed to bring back success. So far, he is doing an excellent job, as the former Bayern coach is still unbeaten with four victories from five international matches and one draw.

Will Holland warm up for the final against Norway?

In total, the Oranje have 19 points out of a possible 24. The 2014 World Cup bronze medallists therefore lead Group G by two points and definitely have the direct ticket to Qatar in their own hands. If we had to make a prediction on the outcome of the match between Montenegro and Holland on Saturday evening, it would clearly go in the direction of the Elftal, given their good form, but also due to their strong footballing performances.

In our eyes, it is even very likely that the Dutch team, full of highly talented individual players, will win by two or more goals. On the one hand, the fact that they have already scored 29 of their own goals in eight qualifying matches speaks in favour of this. In addition, five of the six victories mentioned above in the current qualifiers were achieved with a -1 handicap. Even better: 80% of all international victories for the Dutch in the 2021 calendar year came with at least a two-goal difference (eight out of ten).

Despite next week’s presumed group final against Norway, Louis van Gaal is unlikely to take any risks in choosing his starting eleven. That in turn means that pretty much everything of note will be in the starting line-up. Virgil van Dijk will keep the defence tight, Wijnaldum and Frenkie de Jong will pull the strings in the centre of midfield and the attack will hope for the form and dynamism of Lang, Depay and Danjuma.

Predicted line-up of Holland:
Biljow; Dumfries, De Vrij, Van Dijk, Blind; Klaassen, F de Jong, Wijnaldum; Lang, Memphis, Danjuma

Last matches played by Holland:

World Cup Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. G
10/11 2021 – Netherlands 6 – 0 Gibraltar

10/08 2021 – Latvia 0 – 1 Netherlands

09/07 2021 – Netherlands 6 – 1 Turkey

09/04 2021 – Netherlands 4 – 0 Montenegro

09/01 2021 – Norway 1 – 1 Netherlands

Montenegro – Holland Direct comparison / H2H balance

The first leg at the beginning of September was a clear affair in favour of the Dutch, who, however, scored three of their four goals in the 4-0 victory only from minute 60 onwards. It might also be an interesting option on Saturday evening to check the odds for more goals after the break between Montenegro and Holland.

Montenegro – Holland Tip

In purely mathematical terms, Montenegro still have a mini chance of grabbing second place in Group G. However, since the prospects are purely hypothetical, we will not go into detail here. The three-way battle between the Netherlands, Norway and Turkey is much more interesting. Before the Dutch can face the Scandinavians at home on Tuesday, they must first complete the obligatory task in Podgorica.

Admittedly, we have no doubt whatsoever that the betting odds on an away win between Montenegro and Holland will pay off. The Elftal is one or two classes stronger in terms of quality, is also in very good shape and will take the guest game in Eastern Europe very seriously in view of the aforementioned constellation.

Because the proud home side have won just three of their last nine home games and lost the first leg 4-0 in the Netherlands, we are convinced that a -1 handicap win for the favourites in the Montenegro vs Holland clash will go through. Eight of the ten international victories in the 2021 calendar year have come by two or more goals. We expect that to be the case again on Saturday.

We found the top odds of 1.76 at Swedish bookmaker Unibet