Derby Time in the Cup! Will the Eagles prevail at The Den?

Third main round in the oldest cup competition in the world – the FA Cup. The 44 teams from the two highest divisions are now also getting into the action, joined by 20 teams that have survived the arduous journey so far. There is no absolute top match yet, but there are still a few games that are worth a look. In the English capital London, a derby will take place at “The Den” Stadium early on Saturday afternoon. Hosts Millwall welcome Crystal Palace – this is a duel between a second division club and a Premier League club.

However,

London is not the only thing the two teams have in common. Both teams are in eleventh position in the current table, and both teams also conceded a 3-2 defeat in the first league game of the year and are now hoping for their first success in the new calendar year. The bookmakers naturally see the higher-ranked visitors as favourites. Between Millwall and Crystal Palace, betting odds between 2.10 and 2.15 are offered for the visitors.

The home side are certainly favoured by the good results they have picked up at The Den recently. The last home defeat dates back to 16 October. But is this enough to hold their own against a Premier League side? There will be an answer to that question on Saturday from 13:45.

Millwall – Statistics & current form

The Lions from the south-east of London are known to many fans through the film “Hooligans”. Millwall are considered West Ham United’s arch rivals and have had an extremely violent crowd in the past. In sporting terms, there has not been a clash with the Hammers for some time, as Millwall have never been in the top flight since the introduction of the English Premier League in the early 1990s. Mid-table in the Championship has been Millwall’s usual environment for several years now.

Goals on both sides

Gary Rowett’s team have currently played 24 league games and are looking at 33 points. This is an improvement on last year, when Millwall had just 29 points to their name. Since 2013/14, the club has only been stronger on the road in 2019/20 with 34 points.

A look at recent results shows that bets on both teams to score have been very successful recently. In seven of the last eight Championship games, this bet was crowned with success. Only in the 1-0 away win in Coventry at the end of 2021 Millwall could keep the nil. Meanwhile, Millwall’s own attack has scored at least once in nine league games in a row. With these figures, a forecast at fair odds on both teams scoring in the derby between Millwall and Crystal Palace is certainly a good option. Especially the 1.90 is very promising with these numbers.

Good results at home

The really big names are not to be found in Millwall’s line-up. The one or other player has PL experience, but qualitatively there is a clear difference to the Eagles from the London district of Selhurst. Moreover, there is still a question mark behind the most valuable player, Jed Williams. He was only able to return to team training towards the end of the week, and a decision on whether he will play will be made in the short term.

A glimmer of hope for the Rowett eleven, however, are the recent results at home. Millwall last lost at The Den on 16 October in the derby against Luton Town. Since then, there have been five more home games for the Lions from the south-east of England, with three wins to their name (two draws).

Predicted Millwall line-up:
Bialkowski – Hutchinson, Cooper, Pearce – Malone, Evans, Saville, McNamara – Ojo – Afobe, Bradshaw

Last games played by Millwall:

Championship
01/02 2022 – Bristol City 3 – 2 Millwall

12/29 2021 – Coventry 0 – 1 Millwall

12/11 2021 – Peterboro 2 – 1 Millwall

12/04 2021 – Millwall 3 – 1 Birmingham

11/27 2021 – Hull 2 – 1 Millwall

Crystal Palace – Statistics & current form

Meanwhile, the 2021/22 season has progressed and a conclusion is now based on sufficient data. After veteran coach Roy Hodgson ended his career, Patrick Vieira, a former World Cup winner, was hired as head coach. After 20 league games, the Frenchman currently has the same number of points as his predecessor in 2020/21. However, a further development can be seen both in the offensive area (five more goals scored) and in the defensive area (six fewer goals conceded).

Possession has increased

For a long time, Crystal Palace was known for old-fashioned “kick-and-rush” football. On the offensive, pace was supposed to provide danger, but many cohesive actions were rarely seen. The much younger Vieira has not stuck to this style, but the better statistics are due to the Eagles now taking more control themselves. Especially against an underclass opponent, as on Saturday afternoon, this will be evident.

The quality in the Crystal Palace squad for more attacking possession football is absolutely there. In the Premier League, Crystal Palace are now mid-table in the league in statistics such as number of passes, passing quality. A style that suits the many young talents (Gallagher, Olise, Guehi, Mitchell or Eze) much better.

Away record can be improved

Purely from the player material and the philosophy, Crystal Palace should actually be seen as clear favourites. Betting odds of over 2.00 for the away win are mainly due to the fact that the Eagles have not really been able to convince outside of Selhurst this season. They have only managed one away win this season – and it was an absolute sensation. At the end of October, Crystal Palace celebrated a 2-0 away win at reigning champions Manchester City.

One argument in favour of the visitors, however, is their personnel situation. Already a few weeks ago, Vieira had to improvise a lot, but now he can almost draw on a full complement. That’s why betting on the PL club can definitely be considered for Millwall against Crystal Palace.

Predicted line-up of Crystal Palace:
Butland – Mitchell, Guehi, Tomkins, Kelly – Riedewald, Schlupp, Hughes – Eze, Zaha, Mateta

Last matches played by Crystal Palace:

Premier League
01/01 2022 – Crystal Palace 2 – 3 West Ham

12/28 2021 – Crystal Palace 3 – 0 Norwich

12/26 2021 – Tottenham 3 – 0 Crystal Palace

12/15 2021 – Crystal Palace 2 – 2 Southampton

12/12 2021 – Crystal Palace 3 – 1 Everton

Millwall – Crystal Palace Direct comparison / H2H record

Geographically, the two teams from the English capital of London are not far apart, but in sporting terms there has been no comparison for quite some time. In the 2012/13 season, their paths crossed for the last time in the second-tier Championship, with both games ending in a draw. In general, a look at the results so far is very balanced, as after 48 completed competitive matches Crystal Palace are only a razor-thin margin ahead with 17:16 wins.

Millwall – Crystal Palace Tip

The cup has its own laws, especially the FA Cup in the motherland of football. Many heroic stories have been created in this competition. Due to the long tradition, even the top teams always take this competition very seriously and usually refrain from great experiments. Especially not when a derby is on the agenda. Although Millwall have a reasonable home record and Crystal Palace do not have a good away record, a surprise is not to be expected.

The Eagles now have a lot of young, strong talent and have made a big step forward in the league. Millwall definitely have problems defensively and thus opportunities should arise for the visitors sooner or later. In the cup derby between Millwall and Crystal Palace, betting on the visitors at odds of over 2.00 definitely has its appeal. Six units will be staked on the visitors to win in normal time