Will the Wolves profit from Hoffenheim’s form crisis?
In the 2024/25 season, TSG Hoffenheim has so far been in a bad way. Not only did the Kraichgauers fail in the cup against fourth-division Würzburg, but they have also lost three league games in a row after their 3-2 opening victory over Holstein Kiel. Against this background, it is important to consider whether the tip for the home win of the Wolves against Hoffenheim might possibly yield enough value to justify the associated risk.
On paper, the Danes are more likely to be seen in the role of the underdog. However, TSG has some notable absences to deal with and has recently been far too vulnerable, especially defensively. In all five competitive games of the young 2024/25 season, the Sinsheimers have conceded at least two goals (13 goals in total), which certainly influences our prediction for the game between Midtjylland and Hoffenheim.
In a potentially high-scoring clash at the MCH Arena, we see slight advantages overall for the Wolves, who have only lost one of their last nine home games in the Europa League (four wins, four draws). It makes sense to bet on the double chance 1X at over 1.5 goals in this match.
If you want to keep all your options open in the three-way system, you can also bet on over 2.5 goals in this game as an interesting alternative at Bwin.
Midtjylland – Statistics & current form
FC Midtjylland secured the national championship in Denmark for the fourth time this summer, having previously won it in 2015, 2018 and 2020. Naturally, the Wolves were keen to represent the Superliga in the Champions League as well.
After victories over UE Coloma and Ferencvaros Budapest in the first qualifying rounds, however, they were stopped in their tracks in the all-important playoffs against Slovan Bratislava. The Wolves (Danish: Ulvene) will therefore have to make do with the Europa League, in which they have already made it past the preliminary round twice.
Overall strong start to the season for Midtjylland
In principle, Thomas Thomasberg’s team has nothing to be ashamed of. After all, the team from central Jutland remained undefeated in all nine league games of the 2024/25 season at the national level (six wins, three draws). The Wolves are thus leading the Superliga table again, three points ahead of Aarhus GF.
Nevertheless, the odds are not too much in favor of the home side in Midtjylland against Hoffenheim. The implied probability of the home win is thus just 39.7 percent.
Midtjylland with a good home record in the Europa League
In principle, we would even give the mid-Jutland team a slightly higher chance of winning. Not only is the guest team coming to the MCH Arena in a weak form, but the Danes have also mostly sold themselves very expensively in their own stadium internationally.
The Wolves have only lost one of their last nine home games in the Europa League (four wins, four draws), although their only defeat to date came in their last game at home. In 2022/23, the Jutlanders also lost very clearly 4-0 at home to Sporting Lisbon in the play-offs.
Hoffenheim – Statistics & current form
TSG Hoffenheim qualified for the Europa League for the first time in four years by finishing seventh in the final table of the 2024/25 season. It is the fourth time that the Sinsheim-based club has qualified for the final round of a European competition.
Internationally, things have been going very well for the team from the Kraichgau region, especially in the Europa League. The blue-and-whites have not lost in their last seven Europa League group games (five wins, two draws).
Hoffenheim with a bad start to the season
In principle, the tip for Midtjylland against Hoffenheim is that the Kraichgauer will extend their unbeaten streak in the Europa League, not categorically excluded. However, Pellegrino Matarazzo’s team will have to work hard.
Not only did the Bundesliga club fail against fourth-division Würzburger Kickers in the DFB Cup, but they also lost all three of their last games in the top flight of German football. With only three out of a possible twelve points, the Sinsheim-based club did not get off to a particularly good start.
Hoffenheim has major defensive problems
Particularly striking: In all five competitive matches in the 2024/25 season, the defense has always conceded at least two goals (13 goals conceded in total). The fact that a total of five players who could potentially take on defensive duties are missing through injury – Ozan Kabak, David Jurásek, Florian Grillitsch, Grischa Prömel and Finn Ole Becker – makes the task of keeping a goal against the Wolves all the more difficult.
One bright spot, however, is the offensive power of the offense. In all five competitive games of the young season, the players from the Kraichgau have always scored at least one goal of their own. This favors our bet that it could potentially be a goal-scoring affair in the MCH Arena.
Midtjylland – Hoffenheim Direct comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 0 – 0 – 0
There has never been an international competitive match between the two teams before, so this will be their first meeting. However, when a German team has recently faced a Danish club in Europe, the Danes have usually come away empty-handed. The Bundesliga club has not lost in ten consecutive games (six wins, four draws), but that doesn’t really affect the prognosis in the case of Midtjylland against Hoffenheim and is merely an interesting side note.
Midtjylland – Hoffenheim Tip
Overall, the odds are even for Midtjylland against Hoffenheim, which indicates that the guests from the Kraichgau region are currently out of sorts. TSG, which on paper has a squad that is about two and a half times as expensive, has lost its last three Bundesliga games in a row and has always conceded at least two goals in the five competitive games of the 2024/25 season. The Sinsheimers are now also visiting a team that has only lost one of their last nine Europa League home games (four wins, four draws).
There is thus much to suggest that TSG will have to make the journey home from Denmark without the full three points in their luggage. In a game in which goals are definitely on the cards, we therefore recommend the combined tip on the double chance 1X at over 1.5 goals.
We find odds of 1.75 for this on the useful Betway app for Midtjylland against Hoffenheim. We invest four out of ten units in this tip.
