Does Boro surprise the next top favourite?
It is relatively rare for coaches to publicly doubt themselves. Antonio Conte, of all people, who has already won the national championship with three different clubs in his extremely successful career, let himself be carried away the previous week with a statement about his own quality as a coach, which the media usually interpreted as a “weakness”. The background to this was four defeats from the last five competitive games with Tottenham Hotspur Football Club.
Even though Spurs returned to winning ways at the weekend with an emphatic away victory at Leeds United, all that glitters is far from gold again in north London. During the week, the Champions League aspirants are now challenged in the FA Cup. Ahead of the round of 16 clash between Middlesbrough and Tottenham, the odds are clearly in favour of the Premier League club.
Caution should nevertheless be exercised from the point of view of the favourites, as “Boro” are an ambitious second division side who eliminated Manchester United in the previous round and also have a very strong home record.
The north-easterners can therefore be expected to do a lot, which is why you should also consider betting on an away win between Middlesbrough and Tottenham after normal time. The more promising value probably lies with the supposed underdogs.
Middlesbrough – Statistics & current form
Middlesbrough Football Club is playing a very satisfying season so far. After the former first division club had to settle for tenth place in the final standings last year and a whopping 13 points off a play-off place, the red and whites still have every chance of fixing their participation in the promotion round in 2021/22. In eighth place, they are just two points behind the sixth-placed team.
The fact that the team of coach Chris Wilder, who successfully managed Sheffield United from 2016 to 2021 and led them to the Premier League in the interim, can go into the final spurt with such a promising starting position is primarily due to the impressive results at home.
Boro have already won eleven of their 17 home games in the current Championship season. Only Blackburn Rovers have averaged more points at home than the north-easterners, who have also won seven in a row at home in the country’s second-tier competition.
Boro hard to beat at home
Since the end of October, Wilder’s side have always scored at least one goal of their own at the Riverside Stadium. In fact, only once this season have they scored an attacking zero in front of their own fans. Consequently, it is worth considering a prediction between Middlesbrough and Tottenham that the home side will definitely score a goal.
There should be no lack of self-confidence, as Manchester United, an absolute top club, was eliminated in the previous round. The score was 1-1 after normal time at Old Trafford, but in the end the second division side prevailed on penalties.
The dress rehearsal for the round of 16, however, did not go according to plan. At the weekend, they lost 3-2 at Barnsley. However, it was the twelfth match in the past 13 games in which the attack around goal scorer Andraz Sporar put the ball into the opponent’s goal at least once. In nine out of 13 cases, a bet on “both goals” would have paid off.
Predicted Middlesbrough line-up:
Lumley; Dijksteel, Fry, McNair; Jones, Crooks, Howson, Tavernier, Taylor; Balogun, Sporar
Last matches played by Middlesbrough:
Championship
02/26 2022 – Barnsley 3 – 2 Middlesboro
02/22 2022 – Middlesboro 2 – 1 West Bromwich Albion
02/19 2022 – Bristol City 2 – 1 Middlesboro
02/12 2022 – Middlesboro 4 – 1 Derby
02/09 2022 – Queens Park Rangers 2 – 2 Middlesboro
Tottenham – Statistics & current form
“In the last five games we have played like we are in relegation trouble – that is the reality. For the first time in my life there are four defeats in five games. Maybe I’m not that good.” With this statement, already hinted at in the introduction, Antonio Conte caused astonishment after the 1-0 defeat at Burnley almost exactly a week ago. Some media even put thoughts of resignation in the Italian’s mouth.
It was all the more important for the experienced football coach that his team showed the right reaction at the weekend and won the away game at Leeds United 4-0. But it would be presumptuous to call this success a trend reversal. Especially considering that the Whites, who sacked Marcelo Bielsa at the weekend, are currently a supplier of points and a rebuilding opponent in the Premier League.
Does Tottenham fail due to lack of effectiveness?
The next acid test is on the agenda at the Riverside Stadium on Tuesday night. The fact that Spurs have won four of their last six league games away from home gives them hope of a positive result and progress. The Londoners also won 3-2 at Manchester City, but against defensively compact teams, Kane, Son and their colleagues have had enormous difficulties time and again in converting the higher share of possession into goals. The same problem looms in the last 16 of the FA Cup.
Another point that should be taken into account when making a reliable Middlesbrough vs Tottenham prediction is the currently fragile defence. Spurs have already played twelve cup games (Conference League, League Cup and FA Cup) in the current season and have only kept their clean sheet once. In the league, they have conceded at least two goals in five of their last seven games, which is why we are confident that the odds on both sides scoring will pay off between Middlesbrough and Tottenham.
It will also be interesting to see whether coach Conte, who still has two league games to play, will start the rotation machine. Emerson Royal, Sergio Reguilon or Davinson Sanchez will be three potential candidates to push into the starting eleven. But whether they can stabilise the fragile-looking three/five-man backline is doubtful.
Predicted Tottenham line-up:
Lloris; Sanchez, Dier, Davies; Emerson, Winks, Hojbjerg, Reguilon; Kulusevski, Kane, Son
Last matches played by Tottenham:
Premier League
02/26 2022 – Leeds 0 – 4 Tottenham
02/23 2022 – Burnley 1 – 0 Tottenham
02/19 2022 – Manchester City 2 – 3 Tottenham
02/13 2022 – Tottenham 0 – 2 Wolverhampton
02/09 2022 – Tottenham 2 – 3 Southampton
Middlesbrough – Tottenham Direct comparison / H2H record
80 Meetings have been recorded between these two clubs in the Premier League. Boro actually lead the head-to-head comparison by a narrow margin, with 31 wins compared to 29 defeats and 20 draws. However, this head-to-head record is not really relevant, especially as the last direct encounter at league level dates back to the 2016/17 season.
In the FA Cup, on the other hand, the teams met once again in the 2019/20 season, so after a 1-1 draw in the first game at the Riverside Stadium, Tottenham had to play in the now abolished replay, which they eventually won 2-1. Boro are thus still winless in a total of six FA Cup duels (two draws, four defeats). However, they have only failed to score on two occasions.
Middlesbrough – Tottenham tip
16 teams are still represented in the FA Cup. One of those teams is eight-time title holders Tottenham, who last won Europe’s oldest cup competition in 1991. Since 2012, however, Spurs have only made it to the final round twice. The Lily Whites cannot therefore be described as typical cup experts.
On Tuesday evening, Conte’s team will also face an uncomfortable task at the Riverside Stadium. Although the Londoners are the clear favourites in the clash between the eighth-placed side from the second division and the Premier League seventh-placed side, the betting odds between Middlesbrough and Tottenham on an away win after normal time should be treated with caution.
On the one hand, Boro have won seven home games in a row in the league. On the other hand, coach Wilder’s team already managed to kick Manchester United out of the competition in the previous round. Moreover, the capital club is not in good form, conceding at least one goal in eleven out of twelve cup matches this season and generally being extremely vulnerable defensively.
So we’re going to take a punt on Middlesbrough and Tottenham, with a tip that both teams will score goals.
