Mexico with offensive problems?
Just a few months ago, Mexico were at the top of the CONCACAF 2022 World Cup qualifying table. Since then, “El Tri” has not only squandered the group lead, but also a comfortable advantage over their pursuers. The recent away win at the Jamaicans was therefore all the more important.
Mexico not only defended their third place, but also extended their lead over Panama thanks to help from the Costa Ricans. In the night from Sunday to Monday (CET), there is now the chance for the next big point in the race for the direct starting places for the 2022 World Cup.
Opponents Costa Rica are among the direct pursuers of the Mexicans. A defeat against “Los Ticos” would be fatal – especially in the current standings. Mexico still have to face the USA in the second round, and there is also the showdown with fourth-placed Panama on the agenda.
The recent record against “Los Ticos” shows that the match against Costa Rica will not be a foregone conclusion. Since September 2012, “El Tri” has not won two international matches in a row – in the regular season, mind you – against Costa Rica. If it stays that way this time, bettors can pick up decent odds on a point win for the Costa Ricans in the Mexico vs.
Mexico – Statistics & current form
Mexico are already eyeing a 2022 World Cup berth and despite suffering two major setbacks in their last international break, “El Tri” remain huge favourites to reach the World Cup in the CONCACAF zone. Since 1982, Mexico has never failed to qualify for a World Cup.
The last time “El Tri” was represented at a World Cup was seven times in a row. This year, they are aiming for an eighth consecutive World Cup appearance. Mexico has already set the course for this in the first half of the current qualification phase. After all, national coach Gerardo Martino’s team already has 17 points after nine match days.
However, because they are only three points ahead of fourth-placed Panama, who are currently in the starting line-up for the play-offs, anything is still possible in the 2022 World Cup qualifiers. Mexico lost the momentum in the group after two defeats in a row last year. The recent away win at Jamaica was therefore a real liberating blow.
Do the Mexicans use home advantage against Costa Rica?
The “El Tri” are now aiming for the next points at home. The Mexicans will benefit from home advantage against Costa Rica at the Estadio Azteca in Mexico City on Sunday night. Their recent home record against “Los Ticos” is particularly encouraging. Mexico has not lost a home match against Costa Rica since June 2001.
If this record can be improved with another win, odds of 1.36 on Mexico vs. Costa Rica are available for a bet on “El Tri”. In the first leg, the Mexican national team won 1-0 against the Costa Ricans. The match-winner was Orbelín Pineda, who broke down Costa Rica’s defensive bulwark shortly before the break.
Because Mexico did not get going until late in their most recent away match in Jamaica and hardly harmonised in their attacking play for long periods, it cannot be ruled out that national coach Martino will make some changes to his starting eleven for the match against Costa Rica. There is certainly enough quality in the “El Tri” squad.
Predicted Mexico line-up:
Ochoa – Rodriguez, Moreno, Araujo, Gallardo – Rodriguez, Herrera, Guardado – Antuna, Funes Mori, Vega
Last matches played by Mexico:
World Cup Qualifiers CONCACAF Finals
01/28 2022 – Jamaica 1 – 2 Mexico
Friendly match
12/09 2021 – Chile 2 – 2 Mexico
World Cup qualifier CONCACAF finals
11/17 2021 – Canada 2 – 1 Mexico
11/13 2021 – USA 2 – 0 Mexico
Friendly
10/28 2021 – Mexico 2 – 3 Ecuador
Costa Rica – Statistics & current form
Costa Rica still have a realistic chance of reaching the 2022 World Cup after all. Despite a false start, “Los Ticos” have set the course for a comeback and minimised the gap to the starting places for the play-offs five matchdays before the end of the qualifying phase. The most recent result against Panama set the tone.
Costa Rica won 1-0 against the fourth-placed team in the standings to earn three important points. At present, the Costa Rican national team is separated by only two points from its table rivals Panama. In the best possible scenario, “Los Ticos” could pass the Panamanian national team as early as this matchday.
To do so, however, the Costa Ricans will have to master the showdown with Mexico. The FIFA world number 49 has not won any of its last nine international matches against its upcoming opponents since October 2013. It would therefore be more than daring to bet on the underdog in Mexico vs. Costa Rica.
Will the Costa Rican defence hold?
One of the few arguments that reinforce a prediction on the Costa Rican underdog is the defensive bulwark of “Los Ticos”. In the nine group matches of the current 2022 World Cup qualifiers, Costa Rica have conceded only seven goals so far. Behind Canada and the USA, the Costa Ricans have the third strongest defence in the current World Cup qualifiers.
Just how strong the defensive bulwark of “Los Ticos” is was also felt by Mexico in the first half of the season. Costa Rica conceded only one goal in 90 hard-fought minutes against “El Tri”. The close result was by no means surprising, as Costa Rica had never conceded more than one goal in regulation time in their three previous international matches against Mexico.
National coach Luis Fernando Suárez will not change much in his team’s defence-oriented style of play in Mexico. Costa Rica will tend to look for counter-attacking opportunities against Mexico and will focus on defensive play as much as possible.
Predicted line-up of Costa Rica:
Navas – Matarrita, Calvo, Waston, Fuller – Suarez, Galo, Tejeda, Martinez – Ortiz, Campbell
Last matches played by Costa Rica:
World Cup Qualifiers CONCACAF Finals
01/28 2022 – Costa Rica 1 – 0 Panama
11/17 2021 – Costa Rica 2 – 1 Honduras
11/13 2021 – Canada 1 – 0 Costa Rica
10/14 2021 – USA 2 – 1 Costa Rica
10/11 2021 – Costa Rica 2 – 1 El Salvador
Mexico – Costa Rica Direct comparison / H2H balance
This is the 58th time the two nations have met. Mexico leads the head-to-head comparison against the Costa Ricans with a record of 31-18-7. On average, 2.23 goals per game have been scored in the 57 international matches between the two teams. It is quite possible that a prediction of less than 2.5 goals will also come true this time in the Mexico vs.
Bets on this already paid off in the first-round match between the two nations. Mexico beat “Los Ticos” from Costa Rica 1-0 with a lucky punch before the end of the second half to remain unbeaten for the ninth time in a row.
Mexico – Costa Rica Tip
Mexico – at least in the current standings – are still in doubt about their place in the 2022 World Cup. Still temporarily at the top of the CONCACAF 2022 World Cup qualifying table, “El Tri” are currently only three points ahead of their neighbours from Panama. Further losses of points would therefore be fatal for the Mexicans.
During the week, the team of national coach Gerardo Martino celebrated an important comeback victory in Jamaica. Although Mexico’s most recent opponents played with a shorthanded team for long periods, “El Tri” only managed a comeback in the final phase. For long stretches, Mexico lacked the necessary gunpowder on the offensive.
In order to master the match against Costa Rica, the Mexicans will have to improve significantly in the upcoming group match. After all, “Los Ticos” from Costa Rica have the third-strongest defence in the current World Cup qualifying campaign.
As in the first leg, we expect a low-scoring match in which Mexico will struggle for long periods. Our prediction for Mexico vs. Costa Rica at betting odds of 1.70 is therefore for under 2.5 goals in the match. We are using six units to do so.
