Will FC Sheriff build on their impressive qualifying record?

Sheriff FC are looking to repeat their personal success story from last year. Admittedly, the road to the UEFA Champions League group stage is still a long and rocky one, but the Moldovan champions have smelt a rat in the past season and have also gained plenty of experience at international level.

It is precisely this steel bath from games against Real Madrid or Inter Milan that now helps the yellow and black against supposed underdogs. Nevertheless, the surprise team from the 2021/22 season should not be overestimated. The fact that balanced odds are being offered on the three-way market ahead of the second-round first leg in the Champions League qualifiers between Maribor and Sheriff Tiraspol is therefore perfectly understandable.

What unites both teams is the fact that they went without conceding a goal in each of the first qualifying legs. The Sheriff held their own against Zrinjski Mostar, while the Slovenian champions kept the upper hand against the Belarusian representatives from Soligorsk. The stability shown in the game against the ball now provides a first argument to make a prediction in the direction of lower goals in the duel Maribor vs. Sheriff Tiraspol on Wednesday evening.

Maribor – Statistics & current form

Compared to the opponents from Moldova, NK Maribor is almost an old hand in the top flight. The Slovenian record champions have already played in the group stage three times, the last time in 2017/18, but since then it has been quiet around the club with the yellow/purple colours. In the past four seasons, the club failed to qualify for the Europa League, and last year for the Conference League.

The hope is now all the greater that by reaching the third qualifying round for the Champions League, they will automatically win at least a ticket to the preliminary round of the UEFA Conference League. If we look at the odds before the second-round match Maribor vs. Sheriff Tiraspol, the reigning Slovenian title holders are listed by some bookmakers as outsiders, but other bookmakers give the “nogometni klub” at least a 50% chance of advancing.

Maribor has not yet arrived in the new season

The fact is that coach Radovan Karanovic’s team definitely needs to improve on their last home game at international level. A fortnight ago, the Slovenians had to settle for a tired 0-0 draw at home against Shakhtyor Soligorsk. Against the Belarusian representatives, the Slovenians actually fired fewer shots on goal and had a lower percentage of possession in their own stadium. Thanks to a much more spirited performance a week later on a neutral pitch in Turkey, they still managed to advance to the next round with a 2-0 win.

The start of the national season was less satisfactory last weekend. The 16-time national champions lost 3-0 at home to Radomlje, last season’s sixth-placed team, and after another disappointing performance we would refrain from betting on the home side between Maribor and Sheriff Tiraspol.

Predicted line-up of Maribor:
Bergsen; Milec, Watson, Mitrovic, Sikosek; Repas, Makoumbou; Zugelj, Kronaveter, Bozic; Baturina

Last matches played by Maribor:

Prva Liga
17/07/2022 – Maribor 0 – 3 Radomlje

Champions League Qualifier
13/07/2022 – Shakhtyor Salihorsk 0 – 2 Maribor

07/07/2022 – Maribor 0 – 0 Schachzjor Salihorsk

Prva Liga
22/05/2022 – Mura 1 – 3 Maribor

15/05/2022 – Maribor 3 – 1 Aluminij

Sheriff Tiraspol – Statistics & current form

Teuta Durres, Alashkert, Red Star Belgrade and Dinamo Zagreb. FC Sheriff eliminated these four clubs last season on their heroic way towards the Champions League group stage.

In a total of eight qualifying matches, the Moldovan champions did not suffer a single defeat and conceded only two goals. That makes a total of ten consecutive qualifying matches without a defeat. On seven of these ten occasions, a bet on the under 2.5 would have gone through, and on three occasions alone the surprise team came out on top with the narrowest of all results, a 1:0 win.

Sheriff Tiraspol relies on good defence

Surely those responsible for coach Stjepan Tomas, who succeeded successful coach Yuri Vernydub, would not mind if the ongoing CL qualification took on similar traits. In any case, a start has been made. After a goalless first leg away from home, a 1-0 win in the second leg in front of the home crowd against the Bosnian club Zrinjski Mostar was enough to secure their progress.

The match plan for the encounter in Maribor will not be very different. Once again, the Moldovans’ primary goal must be to stabilise their own defence, keep a clean sheet at the back if possible, and create pinpricks up front. But especially offensively, they need to step it up a gear or two, since the goal in the aforementioned 1-0 come-from-behind victory was not even their own, but was counted as an own goal. In other words, Sheriff FC are still without a goal after two competitive matches in 2022/23, but they are also without conceding a goal.

This statistic is, of course, one of the most important reasons why we are focusing on low goal odds for Wednesday night between Maribor and Sheriff Tiraspol. Given the slight qualitative advantages and the fact that the greater pressure is on the shoulders of the Slovenians, we can also imagine combining Under 2.5 with Double Chance X2. Such a compound bet can be easily played via the Bet365 app, among others.

Predicted line-up of Sheriff Tiraspol:
Abalora; Guedes, Kiki, Radeljic, Kpozo; Badolo, Kyabou, Lushkja; Yansane, Akanbi, Ouattara

Last matches played by Sheriff Tiraspol:

Champions League Qualification
12/07/2022 – FC Sheriff 1 – 0 Zrinjski Mostar

07/07/2022 – Zrinjski Mostar 0 – 0 FC Sheriff

Cup
21/05/2022 – FC Sfintul Gheorghe 0 – 1 FC Sheriff

National Division
14/05/2022 – FC Sfintul Gheorghe 0 – 2 FC Sheriff

07/05/2022 0 FC Milsami Orhei 1 – 1 FC Sheriff

Maribor – Sheriff Tiraspol Direct comparison / H2H-balance

Never before has there been a duel between these two clubs. Maribor already have two games against representatives from Moldova in their own database. In 2000/01 they also failed to qualify for the Champions League against Zimbru. A 0:2 away defeat could not be erased by a 1:0 home win. Incidentally, in the same year, FC Sheriff failed to qualify for the UEFA Cup against Olimpija Ljubljana. It was also the only two experiences against a club from Slovenia for the 2021 CL participant.

Maribor – Sheriff Tiraspol Tip

The bookmakers rarely find it so difficult to name a favourite in a Champions League qualifying encounter. The fact that exactly identical betting odds are now being offered on both teams to win the first leg of the second round between Maribor and Sheriff Tiraspol is proof of the balance between the two teams. However, if you exclude the home advantage, the guests from Moldova have to be rated somewhat stronger in terms of quality.

This assessment is partly due to the fact that FC Sheriff remained unbeaten in CL qualifying in the pre-season and has now not lost ten qualifying matches in a row. Even more impressive is the defensive record, as the Moldovan champions have gone eight of those ten matches without conceding a goal.

Maribor, meanwhile, have revealed deficiencies in their first three competitive matches of the new season. Especially the 0:3 home defeat in the domestic league last weekend might have gnawed at their self-confidence. It has been many years since the Slovenian title holders were able to successfully overcome several qualification hurdles in a row. We don’t think this dry spell will come to an end in 2022/23.

Instead, we decide between Maribor and Sheriff Tiraspol for the tip on the X2 & Under 2.5 So we believe at least in a draw of the guests and combine this recommendation with a maximum of two goals in the course of the game. At Bet365, you can bet 1.95 on this. Alternatively, it is also conceivable to place the under-goal bet in isolation. Both the Under 2.5 and the Under 2.5 offer attractive value.