Will Manchester United throw away their last chance in Europe?

In the case of Manchester United, a season that has already been a disaster could be turned into a complete nightmare in just 90 minutes on Thursday evening. If Lyon do indeed beat Manchester United and advance to the semi-finals, it would be a catastrophic disaster for the English side. The upcoming 2025/26 season would then definitely go ahead without MUFC on the European stage.

In addition to the already very complicated task against OL, the mental aspect and resilience will also play a key role in the Manchester United vs. Lyon prediction. How will the 14th-placed Premier League side cope with this pressure? The fact is that Bruno Fernandes and Co. carelessly threw away a better starting position in the first leg in France a week ago and had to accept a bitter 2-2 draw in extra time.

To reach the semifinals in regular time, they now need a home win at Old Trafford. If the betting companies with German licenses are to be believed, then such a scenario seems anything but unlikely. Before the kickoff of the exciting second leg between Manchester United and Lyon, the odds favor the hosts as clear favorites.

Manchester United – Statistics & current form

Manchester United’s performances at the national level so far this season can be classified as “scandalous.” Although the world-famous club was hoping for a renaissance and had set its sights on a top-four finish after heavy investment in the summer, it currently finds itself in 14th place in the English Premier League. The train to international competition has long since left the station. MUFC has also already thrown in the towel in the FA Cup and the EFL Cup. So there is only one chance left to still be in European competition next season: the Europa League title!

MUFC: Statistics give cause for optimism, performances less so

Anyone who believes that Amorim’s team can win the second most important club competition at UEFA level will currently find odds of 4.50 at Winamax ahead of Manchester United’s upcoming second leg against Lyon. Behind Athletic Bilbao, the sleeping giant is thus considered to have the second-best chance of lifting the trophy.

The statistics certainly favor the Red Devils, as the star-studded team from the industrial city is still undefeated in the competition so far. They have six wins and five draws. In all eleven matches, MUFC has also scored at least one goal. In total, United have scored 36 goals, an average of over three per game. Based on the impressions from the 2-2 draw a week ago, the trend between Manchester United and Lyon is once again pointing towards a prediction of over 2.5 goals. A bet on both teams scoring is also still available at 1.65 at the top.

Regardless, I’m not keen on betting on the supposed favorites from the UK to advance. On the one hand, the odds are way too low. On the other hand, I think the bookies are still completely overestimating the multiple CL winners. At the weekend, they suffered another heavy 1-4 defeat against Newcastle. The defense is sometimes all over the place, and the pressure to advance, which I mentioned in the introduction, further complicates the task.

Lyon – Statistics & current form

Olympique Lyon last lost a Europa League away game in December 2017. Since that 0-1 defeat at Atalanta Bergamo, the French side have remained unbeaten in twelve consecutive away games in Europe’s second most important club competition. During this period, they have even managed nine wins and three draws! In the current EL season, OL has won 4-1 at Glasgow Rangers and 3-1 against the surprise team from Bucharest, among others. The team of coach Paulo Fonseca, who is banned from entering the pitch in Ligue 1 until November 2025 but is allowed to stand on the sidelines in international competitions, should not lack confidence.

The OL offense will give the United defense a real run for their money

This is also supported by the fact that no other club has scored more away goals in this Europa League season than Lyon. Thirteen goals in five games equates to an average of almost three goals per game on the road. This statistic also serves as an argument when it comes to recommending the odds for a high-scoring game between Manchester United and Lyon.

The current form of the players from France’s third-largest city is also impressive. Since Fonseca took office at the beginning of February, OL has celebrated nine wins in 13 competitive games. Their only defeats came against the team of the moment in Strasbourg, at Olympique Marseille, and at home against Paris St. Germain. Interestingly, Lacazette and Co. have scored at least two goals in all 13 games. If this impressive run continues on Thursday evening, the chances of reaching the EL semi-finals will logically increase significantly.

For bets on at least two OL goals, you will find attractive odds of up to 3.15 at NEO.bet, which you can also play with the NEO.bet bonus. Comparable odds are available on the “To Qualify” market, where odds of 3.25 are even being offered for the French side to progress. I consider both approaches to be extremely exciting and conclude my optimism with the signing of Rayan Cherki. The 21-year-old offensive player, who is on the radar of many top European clubs, has been involved in eleven goals since Fonseca’s arrival in Ligue 1 and also leads the Europa League scoring charts with three goals and eight assists!

Manchester United – Lyon Head-to-head record / H2H record

These clubs have met five times in competitive matches. Manchester United have won twice, while the other three encounters ended in draws. Last week, MUFC and OL also drew 2-2, with the French side equalizing in stoppage time through Cherki. However, considering the xG values (1.76 to 1.22) and the possession statistics, the draw was more than deserved for Lyon! At home, United now face the prospect of a third consecutive European defeat against a French team. OL, on the other hand, have a very respectable 4-4-1 record in their last nine away games on the island.

Manchester United – Lyon Tip

There is a certain tension in the air when Manchester United and Olympique Lyon face each other for the second time in seven days on Thursday evening. This is partly due to the spectacular first leg, in which the French side scored twice in the dying moments to secure a 2-2 draw. On the other hand, there was also the war of words in the media between MUFC keeper Onana and former United player Matic, who is now under contract with OL. So there is plenty of fuel for the fire! Basically, however, the teams are evenly matched, even if the English are clear favorites on paper. Too clear in my opinion.

Although the Red Devils are still unbeaten in this season’s Europa League, they face a Fonseca side that has scored at least twice in each of its last 13 games, winning nine of those and failing to lose any of its last 12 Europa League away games (9-3-0). Risk-taking bettors should therefore speculate on the underdog advancing. Alternatively, the over 2.5 bet is once again a good option between Manchester United and Lyon. Betano is offering maximum odds of 1.70. My personal stake is six units.