Can Leicester City cause a surprise?
On Friday, Manchester United and Leicester City will face each other in the fourth round of the FA Cup. So early in this competition, we are already getting to see a clash between two first division teams and can therefore look forward to an exciting game. Although the two teams play in the Premier League and are only ranked between them, the Manchester United vs. Leicester odds of the bookmakers speak more than clearly for a victory of the home team. Even with the bookmaker with the best home odds, in this case Betano, we only get a home win of 1.35.
We now want to take a closer look at the reasons for the one-sided odds distribution. We start with the home and away record of the two teams and come to a clear result. The Foxes have only won two of their 14 away games, losing nine of them. On the other hand, the Red Devils have won seven of their 15 home games at national level and thus seem to have the advantage. So there is already the first point that clearly speaks in favor of the Manchester United vs. We are excited to see if this is also confirmed in the rest of the analysis.
In the comparison of form, the home side definitely have the advantage, because while the guests have only won two of the last eleven competitive games, they have won five matches in the same period. Nevertheless, the results are a little deceptive, because in the Premier League, the Red Devils lost five of their last nine league games and are therefore anything but in good form. We therefore believe that the Manchester United vs. Leicester prediction of a home win is quite risky.
Manchester United – Statistics & current form
Manchester United played frighteningly weak football for long periods of the past few months and is no longer recognizable. In the Premier League, things are going so badly that international places are no longer an issue. Fortunately, the Red Devils are still active in two other competitions and things have been going much better there so far. In the Europa League, the home side secured a ticket for the last sixteen without any problems and are even among the favorites. In the FA Cup, that is not necessarily the case, because Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea are significantly stronger teams still in the running.
Manchester United lack a real goalscorer
With 61 goals in 37 competitive games (Ø 1.65), the offense seems to be doing an excellent job at first glance. However, the result is somewhat distorted because if we exclude the matches in the Europa League, which is of significantly lower quality than the Premier League, and the 7-0 win against third-division side Barnsley, the Red Devils have only scored 38 goals in 28 games (Ø 1.36). In addition, Ruben Amorim’s team have been without a goal of their own nine times, meaning they have found the back of the net in “only” 76% of games. One reason for this is a lack of clinical finishers, as not a single player has yet managed double digits.
Manchester United with problems in defense
Defensively, things are going similarly well for the hosts, because with 51 goals conceded in 37 games (Ø 1.38), the Red Devils have been too vulnerable so far. Nevertheless, Ruben Amorim’s team have kept a clean sheet ten times and thus conceded a goal in “only” 73% of competitive games. However, due to Lisandro Martinez’s injury (cruciate ligament rupture), Manchester United now lacks an important pillar in defense. This could well make itself felt in the already shaky defense. We would therefore not be surprised if the supposed underdog from Leicester got one or two big chances.
Predicted Manchester United line-up:
Onana – Mazraoui, Yoro, Maguire, de Ligt, Dalot – Ugarte, Fernandes, Mainoo – Zirkzee, Diallo
Leicester – statistics & current form
Leicester City cannot be really satisfied with the season so far. Ruud van Nistelrooy’s team only managed 17 points from their first 24 league games and are therefore in one of the three relegation places. However, Wolverhampton are only two points behind, so the battle to avoid relegation is far from over.
The FA Cup therefore plays only a minor role for the Foxes. Nevertheless, the guests already sent their best eleven onto the pitch in the game against Queens Park Rangers and shot the second division team out of the competition with a 6-2 win. The away team will not give up the game against Manchester United without a fight.
Leicester lacks offensive quality
Jamie Vardy has played in 23 of the 28 competitive games this season and is already the Foxes’ top scorer with eight goals. In a way, this is an indictment, because the English striker is already 38 years old and actually already at the end of his career. With 37 goals in 28 competitive games (Ø 1.32), the offense is therefore far too harmless. Moreover, Ruud van Nistelrooy’s team have yet to score a goal in eight matches, meaning they have only found the back of the net in 71% of their matches. Nevertheless, Manchester United should not underestimate the visitors’ forward line, because they definitely have speed.
Leicester rarely keep a clean sheet
Things could be a lot worse in offense, but the same cannot be said for defense. Ruud van Nistelrooy’s team has conceded 60 goals in 28 competitive games (Ø 2.14), making them one of the weakest defenses in the Premier League. Moreover, the Foxes have kept only three clean sheets this season, conceding at least one goal in 89% of their matches. Two of the three clean sheets came against the two lower-division teams Walsall and Tranmere. Without those two games, the rate would be as high as 96%. A clean sheet against Manchester United is therefore extremely unlikely.
Provisional line-up for Leicester:
Hermansen – Justin, Faes, Vestergaard, Kristiansen – Winks, Soumare, Ayew, El Khannouss, Cordova-Reid – Vardy
Manchester United – Leicester: head to head record
In summary of all the facts mentioned so far, the home side seem to have the edge. The direct comparison confirms this assumption, because while the Foxes have only won 36 of 139 meetings, the Red Devils have already won 82. In the recent past, it has been even more one-sided, with Ruben Amorim’s team winning the last four duels. Furthermore, the visitors have not won a competitive game since 2021. It is therefore understandable why the Manchester United v Leicester betting odds speak quite clearly in favor of a home win.
Manchester United – Leicester Tip
We recommend the Manchester United vs. Leicester betting tip on a half-time lead in combination with a victory for the Red Devils (HT/FT – 1/1). The reasons for this are relatively obvious, because Manchester United are not only in much better form, but also have more individual quality. Furthermore, the Foxes’ away record is alarming. Added to that, United have won all of their last four games. In the last three duels, Ruben Amorim’s team even won by at least three goals.
Alternatively, you can put the Manchester United v Leicester odds for “both teams to score” on the betting slip. This recommendation may come as a surprise to some, but the facts are clear. The home side have major defensive problems and already conceded two goals to the Foxes in the EFL Cup. Especially in a do-or-die game, we expect the guests to put up a brave fight. You can find the best odds for this tip at Bet365.
