Will United eliminate the last non-Premier League club?
It’s hit after hit in English football these days. After the last third round match of the FA Cup was on the agenda on Monday evening, it’s already back to the EFL Cup on Tuesday. Among the top teams, the League Cup enjoys far less prestige than the traditional FA Cup. Nevertheless, in recent years almost exclusively big names have been able to win the title in this competition.
In 2022/23, there are again indications that a top club will win the title. The trophy will probably go to Manchester, because teams such as Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal and Tottenham have already been knocked out, and Manchester City and Manchester United are considered the hottest contenders for a place in the final.
Before they can do so, however, they still have to fulfil a number of compulsory tasks. In the first quarter-final between Manchester United and Charlton, however, the Premier League club seems to be a mere matter of form.
For the Red Devils’ opponents, the mere fact that they have reached the last eight is a huge success. The third division team, which also once played in the English top flight, has already won the competition four times, three of them on penalties.
By the way, if you don’t believe in a decision after 90 minutes, you can get a 10.00 tip for such a prediction between Manchester United and Charlton. In that case, there would be no extra time, but an immediate penalty shoot-out.
Manchester United – Statistics & current form
Manchester United continue to plough through the current phase of the season and are one of the most in-form teams around on the island. Perhaps even the strongest currently. After the re-start following the World Cup break, the Red Devils played five matches and always left the pitch as winners. In four out of five cases, the margin of victory was at least two goals, and in three matches the English record champions went without conceding a goal.
With a view to these exhilarating figures, it quickly becomes clear why odds of only 1.13 are offered between Manchester United and Charlton. The favourite role is massively pronounced. No one expects coach Erik ten Hag’s side to let their guard down at home against a third division side, throwing away a good chance of silverware.
Man United must exercise patience
In fact, the yearning for a title win is huge in the red part of the industrial city. The last two notable triumphs date back six years to the 2016/17 season, when both the Europa League and the League Cup were won. In total, by the way, it was the fifth EFL Cup win in the club’s own history, the fourth in this millennium.
It is also exciting and revealing that in four of the last five cases in which the Red Devils have reached the quarter-finals of this cup competition, they have also made it to the semi-finals. The same should be within the realm of possibility on Tuesday night. The difference in quality is huge, the momentum is also on the side of the hosts and the home advantage is also a pro-argument.
Nevertheless, we would not rule out the possibility that a Man Utd team with a much changed line-up will find it more difficult than expected, especially at the start against a deep-lying defence. It is therefore also conceivable to make a prediction between Manchester United and Charlton that more goals will be scored in the second half. The double HTX/FT1 even offers odds above the 4.00 mark.
Predicted Manchester United line-up:
Butland; Wan-Bissaka, Lindelof, Maguire, Malacia; Fred, McTominay, Eriksen; Elanga, Martial, Garnacho
Last matches played by Manchester United:
FA Cup
07/01/2023 – Manchester United 3 – 1 Everton
Premier League
04/01/2023 – Manchester United 3 – 0 Bournemouth
31/12/2022 – Wolverhampton 0 – 1 Manchester United
28/12/2022 – Manchester United 3 – 0 Nottingham Forest
Carabao Cup
22/12/2022 – Manchester United 2 – 0 Burnley
Charlton – Statistics & Current form
If you’re a third division club and you meet Manchester United at Old Trafford in the quarter-finals of the League Cup and have a chance of progressing to the final round, then you’ve done a lot right in the competition so far. That’s exactly what has happened to Charlton Athletic so far, as they have eliminated four clubs on the way to this highlight game.
QPR, Walsall, Stevenage and most recently Brighton have all failed to win against the Addicks. Three times the red and whites had to go to penalties, three times they prevailed. No team was able to score more than one goal against the Londoners in normal time. In fact, they conceded just two goals in four games.
Charlton more dangerous under new coach Holden
Between Manchester United and Charlton, this in turn supports our prediction that a potential home win will not be by a four or five goal margin, but a little tighter. Odds of 1.72 are offered for the Red Devils to win combined with the under 4.5.
In terms of self-confidence, coach Dean Holden’s charges need not hide either. Since the 43-year-old Englishman took over, things have been going much better than before. They have seven points from three league games and even won the two most recent matches. Nevertheless, they are only in twelfth place in the league table – nine points behind the play-off places towards the Championship.
Predicted Charlton line-up:
MacGillivray; Clare, Ness, Lavelle, Inniss, Sessegnon; Rak-Sakyi, Dobson, Morgan, Blackett-Taylor; Stockley
Last Charlton games:
League One
07/01/2023 – Charlton 2 – 1 Lincoln City
01/01/2023 – Portsmouth 1 – 3 Charlton
30/12/2022 – Oxford 3 – 1 Charlton
26/12/2022 – Charlton 1 – 1 Peterboro
Carabao Cup
22/12/2022 – Charlton (4)0 – 0(3) Brighton
Manchester United – Charlton Direct Comparison / H2H Record
2006/07 the teams were still dueling in the English top flight. In total, there were 50 encounters in the top flight of English football. Manchester United have had the upper hand 33 times, which also gives them a clear lead in the direct comparison.
The only League Cup encounter was also won 5-1 by the Red Devils, although all the duels have been in the past for almost 20 years and even longer. The historical results are therefore of no relevance for Tuesday night’s quarter-final match at the Theatre of Dreams.
Manchester United – Charlton Tip
The goal of the underdogs from London on Tuesday evening must be to stay without conceding a goal for as long as possible. In the competition so far, this has been achieved excellently, as even the offensively potent Seagulls from Brighton could not score in 90 minutes against Charlton and were ultimately eliminated in a penalty shootout.
Given the changes in personnel, we do not expect the home side to set off fireworks in the first half, but will need a good 30-40 minutes before they have cracked the defensive bulwark, so the betting odds between Manchester United and Charlton should be on more goals in the 2nd half and under 1.5 in the first half.
But even more interesting to us between Manchester United and Charlton is the bet on the home win in conjunction with Under 4.5, covering all results from 1-0-4-0 as well as 2-1 and 3-1. We would even take into account a surprising goal by the third division team. Most recently, a corresponding bet involving the Red Devils would always have gone through, which is why the 1.72 is worth a stake of six units to us.
