Will the Brentford favourites strike again?
It has been almost half a year since Brentford and Manchester United faced each other in the first leg of the current Premier League season. However, this match from August 2022 is still omnipresent in the fan camps of both teams. The Bees thrashed the English record champions 4-0 in front of their home crowd, causing a real bang on matchday two.
The Red Devils now have the chance to avenge that embarrassing defeat at Old Trafford. However, in the second leg between Manchester United and Brentford on Wednesday evening, Ten Hag’s team will not be the favourites to win the match, which is understandable in view of recent results. The 2023 EFL Cup winners have failed to win the league three times in a row and have not scored a goal of their own.
In addition, the visitors from London are definitely among the most uncomfortable opponents the top flight has to offer in the motherland of football. Coach Thomas Frank’s side have lost only one of their last 16 Premier League matches and have proved to be the favourites time and again in the recent past.
With this in mind, it is not our first choice to make a prediction on the home win between Manchester United and Brentford. Instead, there are statistical anomalies that may swing the pointer towards a goal bet.
Manchester United – Statistics & current form
After a season that has been very consistent for long stretches, Manchester United were actually well on their way to cementing third place behind Arsenal and city rivals Manchester City and thus making a return to the top flight.
However, as the form curve has been pointing downwards in recent weeks, the Red Devils have now dropped to fifth place and still hold all the aces with two catch-up games to go, but still have to fear for their starting place in the CL group stage 23/24 in the main.
United still struggling with the aftermath of Liverpool ignominy
Only a single point has come out of the last three PL games. However, the 0-0 draw at home to relegation candidates Southampton felt like a defeat. Apart from that, MUFC lost 7-0 at Liverpool and also lost 2-0 at Newcastle in the top flight last weekend. For the first time since 1989 (!), the record champions could now go four league games in a row without scoring a goal of their own.
Admittedly, the odds before the Manchester United vs. Brentford clash suggest otherwise. Despite the disappointing results and the aforementioned drop in the league table, the Ten Hag team is clearly favoured in the home match against the Londoners. This is not least due to the fact that the Red Devils have lost only one of the past 22 PL home games (14 wins, seven draws) and have also gone unbeaten for twelve home matches in a row.
With the fans behind them and Rashford in attack to success
The likelihood of the surprising goal drought of the fourth best home side in the English top flight coming to an end during the week is also pretty high. Prior to the aforementioned 0-0 draw with the Saints, Man Utd had scored at least twice in six consecutive home games. Always a bet on the over 2.5 would have gone through as well, which is why we are once again targeting the odds on 3+ goals for Wednesday night and the Manchester United v Brentford encounter.
Marcus Rashford, of course, offers himself as a potential goalscorer. The international has already scored 18 goals across all competitions so far this season. The last United star to record an even better tally was Wayne Rooney, who scored 19 home goals for the record champions more than a decade ago.
Last Manchester United games:
Premier League
02/04/2023 – Newcastle 2 – 0 Manchester United
FA Cup
19/03/2023 – Manchester United 3 – 1 Fulham
Europa League Final Stage
17/03/2023 – Real Betis 0 – 1 Manchester United
Premier League
12/03/2023 – Manchester United 0 – 0 Southampton
Europa League Final Stage
10/03/2023 – Manchester United 4 – 1 Real Betis
Brentford – Statistics & current form
Brentford Football Club remain one of the positive surprises of the current Premier League season. 43 points are on the books for the Bees after 28 matchdays. At the moment, that is enough for seventh place, which could even entitle them to take part in international business for the first time. However, there are many higher-ranked teams hoping that the Londoners will lose points.
However, the Red and Whites have rarely lost three points in a row. In fact, Danish coach Thomas Frank’s charges have lost only one of their past 16 (!) Premier League matches (seven wins, eight draws). Over the whole season, the capital club lost only five times. Only the top three in the league, Arsenal, Manchester City and Newcastle, conceded more defeats than the club, which has only been represented in England’s top flight since 2021/22.
Favourites Brentford are hard to beat
The word is already out that the “Bees” are not to be underestimated and that they like to go beyond themselves, especially against the top teams in the league. For example, Frank’s team won at Manchester City (2-1), scored at Arsenal (1-1), beat Liverpool in front of their home crowd (3-1), earned a point from Chelsea and Tottenham and also beat Manchester United 4-0 in the first leg. The Bees could now become the first London club since Arsenal in 1990/91 to win both away games at both Manchester clubs in the same season.
However, if you think it’s too risky to predict a double X2 between Manchester United and Brentford, there’s plenty of evidence to suggest a match with three or more goals in games involving the Red and Whites.
Besides the fact that the majority of the listed matches against the league’s top teams ended with 3+ goals, it is additionally worth mentioning that the seventh in the table also scored three times at Brighton at the weekend and only narrowly missed an away win. Only five other teams have scored more goals than Brentford in the Premier League. On average, 2.97 goals have been scored in BFC matches this season. The main contributor is international striker Ivan Toney, who is on 17 goals for the season. Only Haaland and Kane are ahead of him.
Last games played by Brentford:
Premier League
01/04/2023 – Brighton 3 – 3 Brentford
18/03/2023 – Brentford 1 – 1 Leicester
16/03/2023 – Southampton 0 – 2 Brentford
11/03/2023 – Everton 1 – 0 Brentford
07/03/2023 – Brentford 3 – 2 Fulham
Manchester United – Brentford Direct Comparison / H2H Record
The first leg was already briefly discussed at the beginning. All four goals in the Bees’ 4-0 win at home to Manchester United came in the first 35 minutes. For the second time since 1936/37, Brentford could now achieve a season double, i.e. a win in both the first and second legs, against the record champions.
That season, almost 90 years ago, also saw the Londoners’ last and only First Division away win at MUFC. Last season, United won 3-0 at home and 3-1 in the capital, meaning that three consecutive bets on the over 2.5 would have paid off. Did that trend continue on Wednesday night?
Manchester United – Brentford Tip
There are a few catch-up games on the agenda in the English Premiere League during the week. Manchester United also have a difficult match ahead of them. The fifth-placed team in the table will face seventh-placed Brentford, who have lost only one of their last 16 league games and are among the most uncomfortable opponents with a total of five defeats in 28 games.
Consequently, we do not see any particularly attractive value between Manchester United and Brentford in the betting odds on a home win on the three-way market. If you still want to bet on the success of the home-strong Red Devils, you can perhaps combine this with the addition of goals for both teams. For this combined approach, the payout is three times the stake in the event of a win.
The Manchester United vs. Brentford bet on at least three goals being scored in the course of the match is less risky. This is supported by the fact that Ten Hag’s side have scored twice or more in six of their last seven home games. In addition, the visitors from London have the fifth-best attack in the league, having crossed the line three times at Brighton last weekend. Furthermore, in the last three head-to-head PL duels between these teams, the over 2.5 would always have gone through.
