Will Bayern’s defiant reaction cause United’s exit?

Erik ten Hag is currently one of the most unpopular coaches on the island. First and foremost among Manchester United’s own supporters, who are eagerly awaiting the release of their Dutch head coach. Last weekend, the proverbial barrel almost overflowed at the English record champions, but despite the embarrassing 3-0 home defeat against Bournemouth, the former Ajax Amsterdam coach will still have the opportunity to make the almost impossible possible in the Champions League on Tuesday evening.

For the multiple winner of the Henkelpot to be represented in the top flight in spring 2024, the bet on a home win between Manchester United and Bayern must come true. On the other hand, there must be no winner in the exciting parallel match between Copenhagen and Galatasaray. The probability of the Red Devils reaching the round of 16 is therefore low, especially as the bookmakers are currently not even assuming that the ten Hag team will do their homework and defeat a furious Munich team

Admittedly, it will be exciting to see which FCB face we see in the Theater of Dreams on Tuesday evening. Will there be a defiant reaction after the bitter 5-1 defeat against Eintracht Frankfurt at the weekend or another lacklustre performance like the home game against FC Copenhagen two weeks ago? To avoid slipping into a crisis just before Christmas, Tuchel’s team would be well advised to approach the prestigious rematch of the 1999 CL final with the necessary seriousness and earnestness. If they manage to do so, there is a lot to suggest that the prediction for the German visitors in the Manchester United v Bayern duel will go through.

Manchester United – Statistics & current form

Manchester United Football Club hit a new low on Saturday afternoon. After a very poor performance, the English record champions lost their home game against relegation candidates Bournemouth 0:3 and had to endure malice from their own supporters following this disastrous performance. A week earlier, the Red Devils had already lost 1-0 on their visit to Newcastle, where the Magpies were severely short of substitutes, meaning that they are losing sight of the top four they were aiming for. In sixth place, they are already six points off fourth-placed rivals Manchester City.

Almost more worrying than the results are the performances of the star ensemble from the industrial city. Even during a temporary positive run in the Premier League, United failed to impress in footballing terms. Of the top 14 teams in the English top flight, no team has scored fewer goals than ten Hag’s side, who have scored a measly 18 goals after 16 matchdays. Incidentally, seven of the 16 league games mentioned were lost, which is also by far the highest figure in the top half of the table

Manchester United in danger of dropping out of Europe

The Dutch head coach’s situation is tricky. The management is willing to give the coach the time he needs to form a functioning team after a personnel shake-up in the summer. However, the recurring low points are creating a great deal of external pressure, which could become even greater after Tuesday evening’s game. If the odds on an away win pay off on matchday six of the Champions League group stage between Manchester United and Bayern, the Red Devils’ international adventure in 2023/24 would be over for good.

In order to dream of reaching the round of 16 in the top flight after all, or at least to spend the winter in the Europa League, they need a home win. So far in the current group stage, however, Bruno Fernandes and Co. have provided few arguments to believe in such a success. They have already conceded 14 (!) goals in five games. Only Antwerp, who have no points, have conceded more. They have scored twelve goals themselves, five of which were scored by Rasmus Hojlund, who could break the all-time MUFC record of Ruud van Nistelrooy, who scored six goals in his CL debut season for United.

However, with the Red Devils under pressure to win on Tuesday evening, the visitors from Munich will have plenty of chances to test the fragile and injury-plagued defense of coach ten Hag, who once coached FCB’s reserves. With a lack of confidence and United only winning on matchday six of the preliminary round in two of the last nine CL seasons, we are far from predicting the home side in the Manchester United v Bayern game.

Predicted Manchester United line-up:

Bayern – Statistics & current form

A few days after the embarrassing 1:5 in Frankfurt, those responsible at Säbener Straße are still trying to clear things up. Whether it is the right approach to point out that they actually had a good chance of leaving the pitch as winners in terms of the expected goals value (xG) seems questionable to say the least. However, this is exactly what coach Thomas Tuchel tried to make the media representatives believe after the dismantling. In general, the former Dortmund player took refuge in excuses, took the blame and possibly prevented an even more critical handling of the heavy defeat.

It will be all the more interesting to see how Munich strike back on Tuesday evening. If Thomas Müller, who has recently been relegated to the reserve role, has his way, the German record champions will turn on the “rage engine”. The bottom line is that we are also convinced that the defeat in the Main metropolis has significantly increased the chances of a positive result in the Champions League. The fact that nothing is at stake in sporting terms for the already certain group winners will play a lesser role in view of the desire for revenge. This is one of the reasons why we see the more appealing value in the odds on the Tuchel team between Manchester United and Bayern

Bayern’s CL group statistics make surreal reading

Statistically, there are also plenty of indications that the pendulum is swinging more in favor of the men from the Isar. For example, FCB have now gone 39 (!) group games in the UEFA Champions League without defeat. They have even won 35 of these 39 matches. Munich have not lost any of their last 19 CL group games away from home (17 wins, two draws). They have won all eight of their most recent CL group stage matches away from home

In addition, if we had assumed that Coach Tuchel would perhaps bring in some supplementary players from the start at Old Trafford in a normal/regular course of events in recent weeks, the situation has also changed in terms of personnel. Against the backdrop of the match against Union Berlin being called off, the early cup exit against Saarbrücken and the defeat in Frankfurt, it will also be important for the regular players to regain their rhythm just two weeks before Christmas. That’s why we don’t believe in a complete B-Eleven.

Harry Kane in particular will probably have told his manager that he wants to be in the starting eleven on the island. In his last eleven matches against the Red Devils, the England captain has been involved in nine goals. Kane has also scored four goals in the last five games at Old Trafford. After the 0-0 draw against Copenhagen two weeks ago, FCB will not want to tip the scales again in this group and incur the lasting wrath of the (opposing) soccer fans. The desire to make amends is huge!

Predicted Bayern line-up:

Manchester United – Bayern Direct comparison / H2H result

In the top flight, the Manchester United v Bayern match-up is a real evergreen. The giants have already faced each other twelve times in the most important club competition at UEFA level. With five wins, five draws and only two defeats, Bayern lead the direct comparison.

However, one of the two defeats was probably the most painful in Munich’s club history. We are of course talking about the lost CL final in 1999, when Sheringham and Solskjaer both turned a 1-0 deficit into a 2-1 victory in stoppage time. The first leg in the current season was also not for the faint-hearted. In the end, however, Bayern deserved to win 4:3 at home

Manchester United – Bayern betting tip

Ahead of the last matchday in Group A, one ticket for the round of 16 is still up for grabs. While FCB are already certain group winners, the other three teams still have every chance of finishing second. However, the English record champions have by far the worst starting position. Erik ten Hag’s side not only need a win of their own against a furious Munich side, but also a draw in the parallel match between Copenhagen and Galatasaray.

Our doubts are also considerable, as the home side’s tree is already on fire just two weeks before Christmas. They suffered a 3-0 defeat at home to Bournemouth at the weekend. The Dutch coach is on the verge of being sacked and the players also do not give the impression that they still believe in a miracle in the top flight. To make matters worse, Andre Onana, who has looked very insecure of late, has already conceded 14 goals in this group stage

The visitors from Bavaria are also far from top form, but their defeat in Frankfurt on Saturday (1:5) could lead to a reaction. In view of the recent very quiet phase of the season, Tuchel will probably field a powerful team that should definitely be able to snatch three points at Old Trafford.