Will Atletico Madrid conquer Old Trafford?
The last few days have undoubtedly been the days of the “GOATs”, that is, the “Greatest of all time”. In the NBA, LeBron James provided at least 50 points in two home games in a row, in the NFL Tom Brady announced his comeback for the Tampa Bay Bucs and Cristiano Ronaldo also fell into the fountain of youth in his team’s 90 minutes. The Portuguese marked all three goals in a 3-2 home win over Tottenham to secure a big point for United in their fight for the CL ranks.
On Tuesday evening, Ralf Rangnick’s hopes will once again rest on the multiple world footballer. The second leg of the round of 16 in the top flight will be played on Tuesday evening. Ahead of the Manchester United vs Atletico Madrid match, the odds for the home win after 90 minutes are just under 2.30 at the top. The progress of the English record champion is therefore considered more likely after the 1-1 draw in the first leg.
In this assessment, the bookmakers could possibly refer to an interesting statistic, because in 69% of all cases in which the home team drew the first leg in the Champions League, it went out in the second leg. However, of the last ten teams that managed to advance to the next round despite a home draw in the first leg, six of them did it against English opponents! A good omen for the reigning Spanish champions?
Manchester United – statistics & current form
Manchester United’s 1-1 draw in the first leg secured a promising starting position for the second leg at home. They definitely have a chance to reach the quarterfinals of the Champions League for the first time since 2019 and only the second time ever since 2015. However, due to the elimination of the away goals rule, the task against Atletico Madrid could be more complicated than many experts might think.
This is due, among other things, to the recent past, because in the past three knockout duels in the top flight, in which United played the first leg to a draw, they finally had to give up the sails, most recently in 2017/18 in the round of 16 against Sevilla. Apart from that, the general home record against Spanish clubs is anything but optimal. Only two of the most recent eight CL home games against La Liga clubs have been victorious (three draws, three defeats).
United often remains a surprise package
A further complicating matters is the fact that the English record champions have lacked consistency somewhat in recent weeks and months. In 19 games under Ralf Rangnick, United have only won two competitive games in a row twice. There have not been three consecutive victories at all. There is also a question mark over the club’s current form, as only one of the last four matches has been won. In the dress rehearsal against Spurs at the weekend, the pleasing result (3:2) should not obscure the fact that the visitors from London set the tone for long stretches.
In view of the above, we believe that betting on a home win after 90 minutes between Manchester United and Atletico Madrid does not offer particularly high value. Only six wins in eleven home games under Rangnick, as well as the fact that the soccer giants from the English industrial city did not fire a single shot on Jan Oblak’s goal in the first leg three weeks ago until Elanga equalized in the 80th minute of the match, underline our thesis and at the same time provide arguments to refrain from making a corresponding prediction on the home side advancing.
CR7 should take responsibility
To conclude by picking up on the personnel matter of Cristiano Ronaldo, caution is of course called for from the Spaniards’ point of view, because although the Portuguese claims of himself that he doesn’t really like playing against the Rojiblancos, he has scored 13 times in his last 15 home games against Atletico. CR7 also celebrated a goal in his two completed home games for United in the current CL season.
Personnel-wise, the German coach is spoilt for choice. At the moment, there are signs that Bruno Fernandes, Scott McTominay and Luke Shaw, who have been injured recently, will all be available again and have a good chance of returning to the starting eleven immediately. It is quite possible that Paul Pogba, among others, will have to make way and take a place on the bench.
Predicted lineup of Manchester United:
De Gea; Dalot, Varane, Maguire, Shaw; Fred, McTominay; Sancho, Fernandes, Pogba; Ronaldo
Last matches played by Manchester United:
Premier League
03/12 2022 – Manchester United 3 – 2 Tottenham
03/06 2022 – Manchester City 4 – 1 Manchester United
02/26 2022 – Manchester United 0 – 0 Watford
Champions League Final
02/23 2022 – Atletico Madrid 1 – 1 Manchester United
Premier League
02/20 2022 – Leeds 2 – 4 Manchester United
Atletico Madrid – Statistics & current form
2014 and 2016 Atletico Madrid still stood in the final of the Champions League, but had to succumb to city rivals Real in both finals then. In recent seasons, the reigning Spanish champions have not really been able to convince in Europe’s most important club competition. On Tuesday evening, the team faces elimination in the round of 16 for the third time in the past four years.
To avert this, the Colchoneros will have to break two spells in particular. On the one hand, the Madrid side has been eliminated from the top flight in three of the last four years when the first leg was not won in front of a home crowd. Secondly, the last two away appearances in the Champions League in England were also lost. Incidentally, the red-and-whites have not won any of their eight guest games on the island. In the current season, too, there have been six CL matches in a row without a clean sheet to marvel at.
Atletico with a lot of momentum
The reason why we have nevertheless targeted the odds on the guest between Manchester United and Atletico Madrid is partly because Diego Simeone’s teams are traditionally made for such big and important matches. Like hardly any other coach, “Cholo” can prepare his charges for “do-or-die” matches. With this background alone, the Spanish capital club can be expected to do a lot at Old Trafford, especially, of course, if they manage to take a 1-0 lead.
Another positive aspect that must be mentioned is the rising form curve. In La Liga, for example, there have recently been four wins in a row with a total of only two goals conceded. Of the last seven games in the competition, only one has been lost.
However, the Argentine coach will probably have to do without his compatriot Jose Gimenez in defense due to injury. In return, the important center player Koke is fit for action again. On the offensive side, however, the family man has several options. As of now, it can’t even be ruled out that both Luis Suarez and Antoine Griezmann will only come off the bench. Good to him who can still substitute such highly decorated stars in the course of a game….
Predicted lineup of Atletico Madrid:
Oblak; Savic, Felipe, Reinildo; Llorente, De Paul, Koke, Herrera, Lodi; Felix, Correa
Last matches played by Atletico Madrid:
LaLiga
03/11 2022 – Atletico Madrid 2 – 1 Cadiz
03/06 2022 – Real Betis 1 – 3 Atletico Madrid
02/26 2022 – Atletico Madrid 2 – 0 Celta Vigo
Champions League Final
02/23 2022 – Atletico Madrid 1 – 1 Manchester United
LaLiga
02/19 2022 – Osasuna Pamplona 0 – 3 Atletico Madrid
Manchester United – Atletico Madrid Direct comparison / H2H record
The first leg three weeks ago was one of only three meetings so far between these two clubs at international level. Joao Felix gave the Rojiblancos an early lead after seven minutes and even missed the 2:0 afterwards. Finally, it was youngster Elanga who marked the flattering equalizer for the 1-1 final score in the closing stages.
In the third meeting between these teams, as mentioned above, the Red Devils once again remained without a win. Thus, between Manchester United and Atletico, a prediction of a full success for the Englishmen has never paid off (two draws, one defeat).
Manchester United – Atletico Madrid tip
Even before the start of the round of 16 matches in the Champions League, we talked about the fact that in the Manchester United vs Atletico Madrid match there is an extremely balanced and exciting constellation. After the first leg, which ended 1-1 in the Spanish capital, we see this confirmed.
Before the second leg next Tuesday, everything is open, although Manchester United against Atletico Madrid is considered the favorite for the home match at Old Trafford according to the betting odds. However, this assessment has to be questioned at least critically, as the Red Devils have lacked consistency recently and have generally not been able to pull off much in the top flight in recent years.
In addition, the guests of coach Cholo Simeone are in good shape, celebrated in La Liga last four wins in a row and also proved in the first leg that they do not need to hide from the English record champion. Although many statistics tend to point in the direction of Rangnick’s eleven, we think a “surprise” by the Madrid team is quite possible. Admittedly, however, there is also a bit of subjective gut feeling involved.
