Do the north Londoners upset the champions again?

After losing 2-1 in the Manchester derby, defending champions Manchester City have lost further ground in the Championship. The Sky Blues are already eight points behind leaders Arsenal. Now, of all times, they have to face Spurs, against whom City already lost the first and second legs last season. Still, the bookies see Manchester City vs Tottenham in tip 1 as the most likely scenario.

It should be noted, however, that the Lilywhites have been particularly strong away from home. Spurs have lost only two of their last 14 Premier League away games (seven wins, five draws) and have scored a total of nine goals in their last three away games.

These figures must also be factored into the prediction for Manchester City against Tottenham, as must the aspect that while the Sky Blues have won 11 of their last 13 Premier League home games, they have only gone without conceding a goal in five of those 13.

This makes it interesting to bet on both teams scoring in this clash. There is a lot to be said for a very tight affair anyway, as Spurs, who are strong away from home, have always been very strong at the reigning national champions. The north Londoners have won four of the last nine Premier League away games in which they have played the champions (two draws, three defeats).

The biggest value in our eyes is therefore the Asian handicap of +1.5 on Spurs. That includes any City win with a maximum one-goal difference, in addition to any points won by the Lilywhites.

Manchester City – Statistics & current form

Manchester City won the Premier League in four of the last five seasons and advanced to the top of the league at national level during this period, which also saw them win the national cups on several occasions. Only the Champions League has so far eluded them.

In the new season, however, the Sky Blues seem to have lost their national supremacy. After 18 league games, of which Pep Guardiola’s team has won 12 (three draws, three defeats), the second-placed team is already eight points behind leaders Arsenal.

Last season with zero points against Tottenham

Lately, the Sky Blues experienced a completely used English week, which first included a 2-0 defeat in the EFL Cup against Southampton, before also losing the Manchester derby 2-1. This is the first time since December 2018 that the Citizens have lost two competitive games in a row.

Tottenham, the team against whom the reigning champions lost both the first and second legs in the previous season, is coming to the Etihad Stadium. In other words, Spurs were responsible for 67% of the Sky Blues’ 2021/22 Premier League defeats.

Eleven of the last 13 Premier League home games won

While Guardiola’s eleven last went winless in two consecutive home Premier League games (one draw, one defeat). However, the eleven previous home games in league action were all won. The Sky Blues have also always scored in their last 23 Premier League home games.

Nevertheless, the fact that City have kept a clean sheet in only five of their last 13 home games is problematic. It is therefore somewhat questionable that the bookmakers see the Sky Blues as such clear favourites. For Manchester City against Tottenham, betting odds of 1.40 are available for a home win for the reigning champions.

Predicted Manchester City line-up:
Ederson – Gómez – Aké – Laporte – Walker – Gündogan – De Bruyne – Foden – Grealish – Mahrez – Haaland

Last matches played by Manchester City:

Premier League
14/01/2023 – Manchester United 2 – 1 Manchester City

Carabao Cup
12/01/2023 – Southampton 2 – 0 Manchester City

FA Cup
08/01/2023 – Manchester City 4 – 0 Chelsea FC

Premier League
06/01/2023 – Chelsea FC 0 – 1 Manchester City

31/12/2022 – Manchester City 1 – 1 Everton

Tottenham – Statistics & current form

Tottenham Hotspur play a leading role in the Premier League from time to time, but have never won the competition, which was founded in 1992. Both national championships of the Londoners go back to the time before that and date back to the years 1951 and 1961.

Apart from the EFL Cup in 2008, Spurs have not won a title since the Premier League was founded. This is sobering in that there would have been numerous opportunities to do so. Mention should be made in this context of the 2019 Champions League final or even the 2016/17 Premier League season, when 86 points were taken with only four defeats.

Only one win in their last four league games

The Lilywhites are by no means on course for the title, but they are still in fifth place in the current table. There is a gap between them and the Champions League places. However, Spurs still have a chance of reaching the top four, although they have only picked up four of a possible twelve points in league play since the World Cup break.

A curious fact is that both home games since the re-start have been lost, while away games have yielded four points out of six. In any case, the Londoners have their strength away from home. Away from London alone, Tottenham have won six of their last eight Premier League away games, scoring 17 goals in those six victories.

Won four of their last five Premier League games against Manchester City

Never the less, the bookmakers have little in favour of tip 2 for Manchester City against Tottenham, even though Spurs also won the first and second legs against the Sky Blues last season. Overall, Tottenham have won four of their last five Premier League games against the Citizens (one defeat).

However, the club from the north of London needs to improve in defence. After all, six of the 19 league games in the 2022/23 season were lost primarily because 27 goals were conceded. That’s just about the eleventh best figure of all 20 teams in the Premier League….

Predicted Tottenham line-up:
Lloris – Lenglet – Dier – Romero – Skipp – Höjbjerg – Perisic – Doherty – Son – Gil – Kane

Last matches played by Tottenham:

Premier League
15/01/2023 – Tottenham 0 – 2 FC Arsenal

FA Cup
07/01/2023 – Tottenham 1 – 0 Portsmouth

Premier League
05/01/2023 – Crystal Palace 0 – 4 Tottenham

01/01/2023 – Tottenham 0 – 2 Aston Villa

26/12/2022 – Brentford 2 – 2 Tottenham

Manchester City – Tottenham Direct comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 65 – 36 – 65

There have been a total of 156 meetings between the two teams and with 65 wins each, the head-to-head comparison is completely even. In the Premier League, however, this duel has been clearly in the hands of Spurs, who have won four of their last five league games against the Citizens.

Manchester City – Tottenham Tip

Grundätzlich geht bei Manchester City gegen Tottenham die Prognose zwar zum Heimieg der Sky Blues, die 11 ihrer letzten 13 Premier League Heimspiele gewonnen und in den letzten 23 Heimspiele im Ligabetrieb immer ziel haben. However, another coup by the Lilywhites, who have won four of their last five Premier League duels with the Sky Blues, is not out of the question. After all, the Londoners presented themselves very strong, especially away from home.

It is therefore appropriate to bet on Spurs with an Asian handicap of +1.5. This includes not only every point won by the North Londoners, but also every home win for the Citizens with a maximum of one goal difference.