Will the Sky Blues make it to the final?
In two of the last three times Manchester City reached the semi-finals of the Champions League, the Sky Blues failed to beat Real Madrid. Now, the competition’s record winners could again become the Citizens’ nemesis, becoming the first team in the competition to fail to reach the semi-finals against the same opponent in two successive seasons. For that to happen, however, after last Tuesday’s 1-1 draw at Manchester City against Real Madrid, the betting must be on the Blancos to win, and they would have to prevail in a penalty shootout at the latest.
The Spanish record champions have progressed in eight of the ten cases in which a knockout match in the Champions League was first drawn in the first leg. The Blancos also have a good record against English clubs, having not lost any of their last seven Champions League matches (six wins, one draw). Nevertheless, the bookmakers’ prediction for Manchester City against Real Madrid clearly leans towards the Sky Blues.
The fact that Manchester City will reach the final of the Champions League for the second time since 2021 under Pep Guardiola is not only supported by the fact that the Catalan coach has won three of the five competitive matches against Real Madrid (one draw, one defeat), but also by the Sky Blues’ extremely strong home record. City have not lost at the Etihad Stadium for 25 Champions League games (23 wins, two draws).
For the Blancos, the road to success can therefore only lead through a united defensive performance, which could also force extra time. Many eventualities can be covered by betting on a not too high-scoring second leg.
Manchester City – Statistics & current form
In the meantime, it looked like Manchester City would have to give way to Arsenal FC in the Premier League this summer after four league titles from the past five seasons. However, partly because of such consistent results in recent weeks and months, the Sky Blues now lead the table again by four points.
Overall, even the big triple is still possible in the 2022/23 season. The Citizens were surprisingly defeated by relegated Southampton in the quarter-finals of the EFL Cup. However, in addition to the Champions League, Guardiola’s team also has the chance to win the FA Cup on 3 June.
Unbeaten in 25 Champions League home games
Of course, the most important thing for those in charge is the Handle Cup, which they already failed to lift in the 2021 final. In addition, they have missed two chances to reach the final, both in 2015/16 and 2021/22, which were won by today’s guests from the Spanish capital.
However, after the 1-1 draw in the first leg, the Sky Blues are now in a much better position. The odds on Manchester City against Real Madrid also swing in the Citizens’ favour because the Premier League leaders have not lost a single of their last 25 Champions League home games (23 wins, two draws).
Will Haaland make the difference again?
In addition, goal machine Erling Haaland in particular is almost unstoppable. The Norwegian now stands on 35 goals in 28 appearances in the top flight and not only broke the Premier League goalscoring record in the 2022/23 season, but also scored an incredible 52 goals in 48 competitive games for the Sky Blues.
It will also depend on the 22-year-old if Pep Guardiola’s side, who as City coach still managed to win three of their five competitive games against Real Madrid (one draw, one defeat), can eliminate the record winners this year.
Last Manchester City games:
Premier League
- 14/05/2023 – Everton 0 – 3 Manchester City
Champions League Final
- 10/05/2023 – Real Madrid 1 – 1 Manchester City
Premier League
- 06/05/2023 – Manchester City 2 – 1 Leeds
- 04/05/2023 – Manchester City 3 – 0 West Ham
- 30/04/2023 – Fulham 1 – 2 Manchester City
Real Madrid – Statistics & current form
Real Madrid are 14 points behind FC Barcelona in La Liga and no longer have a chance of winning the league. As a result, they have shifted their focus to the Copa del Rey, where they won the title for the first time in nine years against Osasuna, and the Champions League.
At the same time, the Blancos lost two out of three league games and even Atlético Madrid overtook them in the standings. However, Carlo Ancelotti’s side returned to second place on Saturday with a narrow 1-0 home win over Getafe.
Still winless in four Etihad Stadium visits
Now the Merengues must win at the Etihad Stadium after the 1-1 draw in the first leg if they are to reach the final of the top flight again. Carlo Ancelotti’s side have not lost any of their last seven Champions League games against English teams (six wins, one draw).
However, not only did Real’s last defeat against a Premier League team come in an away match at Manchester City (3:4 in the semifinals of the 2021/22 season), but they have also never won at the Sky Blues in four attempts (two draws, two defeats). Only AC Milan have hosted Real more often without ever recording an away win (seven times).
Scored in 23 of the last 24 Champions League matches
While the Galactics also have potent attacking weapons in Karim Benzema and Vinicius Junior, who has been directly involved in 12 goals in 11 Champions League appearances in 2022/23 (seven goals, five assists). Moreover, the Blancos have scored at least one goal in 23 of their last 24 Champions League matches.
However, if they are to make it to the final, they will first and foremost need a lot of defensive stability to keep the Sky Blues at bay. We expect the Merengues to be defensively solid at the Etihad Stadium, which is why betting on less than 3.5 goals in normal time is a good bet for Manchester City against Real Madrid.
Last matches played by Real Madrid:
La Liga
- 14/05/2023 – Real Madrid 1 – 0 Getafe
Champions League Final
- 10/05/2023 – Real Madrid 1 – 1 Manchester City
Copa del Rey
- 07/05/2023 – Real Madrid 2 – 1 Osasuna Pamplona
La Liga
- 03/05/2023 – Real Sociedad 2 – 0 Real Madrid
- 29/04/2023 – Real Madrid 4 – 2 Almeria
Manchester City – Real Madrid Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to head: 3 – 3 – 3
After nine meetings between the two teams, the record is completely even with three wins and three draws each. However, Manchester City are unbeaten in four home games against Real Madrid at the Etihad Stadium (two wins, two draws) and have most recently won two in a row against the Blancos in 2019/20 (2-1) and 2021/22 (4-3).
Manchester City – Real Madrid Tip
The betting odds on Manchester City against Real Madrid are remarkably clearly in favour of the home side, although there are several factors in favour of the visitors from Spain. From the experience of the well-rehearsed team to the fact that the Blancos have advanced in eight out of ten cases after a draw in the first leg, to the seven-game unbeaten streak against English clubs (six wins, one draw). So betting on the home-strong Citizens, who are unbeaten in 25 Champions League home games (23 wins, two draws), is not a no-brainer.
At the moment, we also see Guardiola’s eleven in the role of favourites. However, in view of the defensive qualities of the Blancos, who under Carlo Ancelotti have no problems defending with commitment and letting their opponents play the game, we think that betting on a maximum of three goals in normal time offers a little more value.
