Will the Sky Blues’ home strength prevail again?
The duel between the defending champions and the record winners enters the next round. After last week’s brilliant 3-3 draw, there could now be another spectacle at the Etihad Stadium. After all, 23 goals have been scored in the last five competitive matches between the two clubs alone – an average of 4.6 goals per game. Accordingly, the betting tip for Manchester City against Real Madrid is that it will be another high-scoring game
The Blancos haven’t had much to play for at the Etihad Stadium recently. Real Madrid have lost all of their last three visits to the Citizens and, after a 1-1 draw in the first leg, went down to a 4-0 defeat in Manchester in the semi-finals last season. As a result, the prediction that Guardiola’s team will knock the Whites out of the competition again is high for Manchester City against Real Madrid
Even historically, there is not much to be said in favor of Real Madrid. Ten times in the history of the Champions League, the Blancos have failed to win the first leg of the knockout stage in front of a home crowd. In just two of the ten cases, they have advanced to the next round with a corresponding away win in the second leg. As a result, we find the greatest value in the bet that Manchester City will win the second leg in regulation time
Manchester City – Statistics & current form
For Manchester City, last week could hardly have gone any better. The Sky Blues secured a 3-3 draw at the Santiago Bernabéu to put themselves in an excellent position for the second leg, before reclaiming top spot in the Premier League.
After the Citizens recorded a commanding 5:1 home win over Luton Town on Saturday, Liverpool FC (0:1 against Crystal Palace) and Arsenal FC (0:2 against Aston Villa) fell to successive defeats at home on Sunday, meaning Pep Guardiola’s side are now back in full control of the title defense
Will Manchester City once again be Real Madrid’s nemesis?
For now, however, it’s all about laying the foundations for defending the title in the top flight, building on their strong home performances. In 2023/24, Manchester City won all four CL home matches and scored exactly three goals in each home game.
As a result, the odds for Manchester City v Real Madrid are now also pointing towards the Sky Blues, who have also won all of their last three Champions League home games against the Spanish record champions and only just beat the Blancos 4-0 at the Etihad Stadium in the semi-finals of the 2022/23 season
Manchester City have yet to lose a home game in 2023/24
The Citizens, who are now approaching their 200th competitive European match and, with 113 wins to date, have achieved exactly as many victories as Real Madrid in their first 200 competitive international matches, are now unbeaten in 27 competitive matches across all competitions (22 wins, five draws).
So far in the 2023/24 season, they have only lost away from home. At the Etihad Stadium, on the other hand, the Sky Blues have remained completely undefeated, scoring 43 goals and conceding just 14 from 17 home games in the Premier League alone, picking up 41 out of a possible 51 points.
Predicted Manchester City line-up:
Real Madrid – Statistics & current form
Real Madrid are the undisputed record winners of the Champions League with 14 overall victories and last won the trophy in the summer of 2022. Last season, they once again reached the semi-finals, but Manchester City were their final opponents.
In two of the last three meetings in the knockout rounds, the Blancos have failed to beat the Sky Blues, who they must now beat on the road. Not an easy task, as the Galactic side have not won a single game in their five previous visits to the Etihad Stadium (two draws, three defeats).
Real Madrid won all four away CL matches in the 2023/24 season
Real Madrid have actually lost all of their last three away games at Manchester City. At least at the weekend, however, the La Liga leaders had a successful dress rehearsal. The Merengues won 1:0 at Mallorca. The record Champions League winners thus remained unbeaten for the 15th consecutive competitive match (ten wins, five draws).
They have already dropped five points in 16 La Liga games (four draws, one defeat). At least internationally, however, the Blancos have impressed in all forms. The Whites have won all four Champions League away games in the 2023/24 season. Their last defeat away from home came in last year’s semi-final in a 4-0 loss at the Etihad Stadium
Without a home win in the first leg, it was always going to be tight for Real Madrid
Without a win at home to Real Madrid in the first leg, the odds are still stacked against Carlo Ancelotti’s side. Historically, it has always been problematic for the Merengues when they have failed to win the first leg in front of a home crowd.
The Madrilenians have failed to win the first leg at home in a knockout round ten times. Only twice have they subsequently progressed with a corresponding away win. Nevertheless, the Whites have comeback qualities. Real Madrid have trailed for just 43 minutes and 48 seconds in the current Champions League season – shorter than any other team in the competition.
Predicted Real Madrid line-up:
Manchester City – Real Madrid head-to-head comparison / H2H result
Head to head: 4 – 4 – 3
Eleven competitive matches have been played between the two clubs so far and Manchester City lead the head-to-head with four wins. The Sky Blues already eliminated the Blancos from the top flight last season. A draw at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu was followed by a commanding 4-0 home win. The Citizens have thus won all of their last three Champions League home games against Real Madrid.
Manchester City – Real Madrid betting tip
All things considered, our prediction for Manchester City v Real Madrid is a home win for the Citizens, who would end the Blancos’ Champions League campaign for the second year in a row. After all, the Sky Blues have been too dominant in recent months, while it has usually been too much of a burden for the Whites not to win the first leg at home. In only two of the ten cases in which the Merengues failed to win at home in the first leg of a knockout stage did they progress to the next round.
Manchester City have also won all four of their Champions League home games this season, scoring exactly three goals each time. The last home defeat dates back to November 12, 2022 (1:2 against Brentford). It is therefore a good bet that Guardiola’s side will not let anything slip at the Etihad Stadium again
