Who values the League Cup more?
It’s been just five days since Argentina, with Lionel Messi, beat France in a memorable final to become the new world champions. However, there is not much time to breathe in European club football, because in France, Italy, Spain and England the winter break is already a thing of the past. In the Premier League, Boxing Day traditionally takes place on Boxing Day. Before that, however, some of the top teams are already in action in the League Cup.
The round of 16 will feature a real thriller. On Thursday evening, the two best English club teams of recent years will face each other in a direct duel. Manchester City are favourites against Liverpool according to the odds. From an objective point of view, this assessment is certainly justified due to the impressions of the season so far and the home advantage.
But considering the fact that both Pep Guardiola and Jürgen Klopp have to or want to do without numerous key players, this encounter takes on a completely new and special perspective. It is therefore all the more difficult to make a prediction on who will reach the next round in the run-up to the Manchester City v Liverpool match. In our eyes, the starting position is completely even, which would rather argue for placing the value with bets on the Reds.
Manchester City – Statistics & current form
It is definitely an unusual picture for the Manchester City managers not to be leading the English Premier League standings just a few days before Christmas. The Sky Blues are currently five points behind Arsenal. In particular, the 1-2 home defeat against Brentford just before the start of the World Cup break hurt coach Pep Guardiola’s team extremely.
It will be exciting to see how the Citizens approach the re-start and, above all, what significance the Carabao Cup has in this context. The fact is that the reigning national champions have won the competition six times since 2014. Four of the five most recent editions alone went to the Sky Blues from Manchester. Last year, however, the upcoming opponents from Liverpool were able to snatch the title.
Guardiola likely to back a child bar
In the course of the World Cup, the Citizens only played one test match, which was won 2-0 against Girona a few days ago. The fact that many key players only reached the quarter-finals at the tournament in Qatar could also have a positive effect on the rest of the season. Others were eliminated in the round of 16 or in the preliminary round, which is why all players, with the exception of world champion Julian Alvarez, are expected to be back on the pitch in the City jersey as soon as possible.
For the match on Thursday evening, however, coach Pep Guardiola has already announced that he will bring in a maximum of four to five regular players from the start. The defence in particular will probably consist exclusively of reserve or youth players. The goal will be kept by ex-Bielefeld player Ortega.
But we can look forward to Gündogan, de Bruyne, Mahrez or Haaland, who at least offensively will exude a lot of danger. Looking at the predicted line-up, it quickly becomes clear why we are predicting a high number of goals between Manchester City and Liverpool. Furthermore, we would rather refrain from betting in favour of the Sky Blues – despite the home advantage – as they are a little too clear favourites in our eyes.
Predicted Manchester City line-up:
Ortega; Lewis, Katongo, Charles, S. Gomez; Palmer, Gündogan, De Bruyne; Mahrez, Haaland, Borges
Last matches played by Manchester City:
Friendly club matches
17/12/2022 – Manchester City 2 – 0 Girona
Premier League
12/11/2022 – Manchester City 1 – 2 Brentford
Carabao Cup
10/11/2022 – Manchester City 2 – 0 Chelsea FC
Premier League
05/11/2022 – Manchester City 2 – 1 Fulham
Champions League Grp. G
03/11/2022 – Manchester City 3 – 1 Sevilla FC
Liverpool – Statistics & current form
It must have been equally bitter for Jürgen Klopp and his charges to be constantly confronted with the table during the World Cup break. The Reds are currently only in sixth place, but are already 15 points (!) behind the leaders from London and also seven points off the last Champions League place. Only six of the 14 matches so far have been victorious. In addition, there have been four draws and four defeats.
At least LFC had two Premier League victories against Tottenham and Southampton, as well as progressing in the EFL Cup against Derby County, to end the month-long break on a positive note. With the Merseyside giants not having a single World Cup winner in their ranks and their own internationals failing relatively early on, the omens are not bad at all for a bounce-back campaign in the coming weeks and months.
With Mo Salah and Co. a good rest of the season should be ushered in
Similarly to the opponents from Manchester, however, the question arises as to how important the far less important of the two English cup competitions, the EFL Cup, is taken. The fact that the title was won last year should not obscure the fact that Jürgen Klopp has used the League Cup in the past exclusively to fully exploit his squad.
This time the situation is a little different, as the German coach will be able to call on a number of important players on Thursday evening who did not take part in Qatar and are therefore eager to return to competitive action. The best example is Mo Salah. Joe Gomez, Harvey Elliott, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Roberto Firmino or Kostas Tsimikas are also expected to be in the starting eleven, which is why we don’t necessarily d’agree with the odds on the three-way market ahead of the Manchester City v Liverpool match.
In our eyes, the Reds definitely have a real chance of reaching the quarter-finals. Particularly if the attack has a good day against the inexperienced City defence and remembers that the first two official direct duels this season also went to LFC with 1-0 in the league and 3-1 in the Super Cup.
Predicted Liverpool line-up:
Kelleher; Ramsay, J. Gomez, Phillips, Tsimikas; Elliott, Bajcetic, Oxlade-Chamberlain; Salah, Firmino, Carvalho
Last matches played by Liverpool:
Friendly club matches
16/12/2022 – Liverpool FC 4 – 1 AC Milan
11/12/2022 – Liverpool FC 1 – 3 Lyon
Premier League
12/11/2022 – Liverpool FC 3 – 1 Southampton
Carabao Cup
10/11/2022 – Liverpool FC (3)0 – 0(2) Derby
Premier League
06/11/2022 – Tottenham 1 – 2 Liverpool FC
Manchester City – Liverpool Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
As mentioned earlier, this is the third time the two teams have faced each other this season. In the English Community Shield, Liverpool prevailed 3:1 and in the league, too, the Klopp protégés somewhat surprisingly kept the upper hand with a 1:0 goal by Mo Salah. In the seven League Cup matches so far, City have only managed to win the very first one in normal time (three draws, three defeats).
It is also exciting to note that in seven of the past nine meetings between Manchester City and Liverpool, the prediction of at least four goals in the course of the game would have paid off. Can we look forward to another open battle with plenty of attacking highlights at the Etihad on Thursday?
Manchester City – Liverpool Tip
Two of the best club teams in Europe will duel in an official match just five days after the 2022 World Cup final. This fact alone is an impressive illustration of the time pressure the professionals are confronted with. However, it is also clear that it will not be a typical top match. Both sides will have a mixed team with a few stars and several supplementary players on the pitch.
Because we are unable to gauge at this stage exactly what the starting line-ups of coaching aces Guardiola and Klopp will look like, we would not consider betting odds on the three-way market between Manchester City and Liverpool for the time being. However, if we had to settle on one team reaching the quarter-finals, the choice would tend to fall on the Reds. Primarily due to the much higher odds, which bring with them an appealing value.
Equally, though, we could well see betting on at least four goals in regulation time paying off in the EFL Cup Round of 16 clash between Manchester City and Liverpool. Both teams will primarily rely on inexperienced players in defence. In the forward play, on the other hand, we are looking forward to Salah, Haaland, De Bruyne or Firmino.
