Will Manchester City make history in Istanbul?
78 teams were allowed to participate in the UEFA Champions League this season, including all qualifying rounds. Of the eventual 32 clubs that made it through to the group stage, exactly two remain to play for the handle pot at Istanbul’s Ataturk Olympic Stadium on Saturday night.
Currently the eighth largest stadium in Europe, it seats over 75,000 people and was the venue for the final of the top flight back in 2005. On that occasion, Liverpool and Milan drew 3-3 after normal time in an epic match before the English side prevailed in a penalty shoot-out.
2023 will see another clash between England and Italy. Ahead of the final between Manchester City and Inter Milan, betting on the Premier League champions is considered more likely.
The Sky Blues are therefore considered favourites after very dominant performances in the knockout phase so far, but of course they also know that there is hardly a more complicated task than winning the title against a defensively very stable opponent who likes to see themselves in the role of the underdog.
Of course, as so often in finals, it is also a duel between the two coaches. Pep Guardiola is in a Champions League title match for the fourth time and has so far managed to coach his respective team to victory in two out of three attempts. For his opposite number Simone Inzaghi, meanwhile, it is the absolute highlight of his still young coaching career, in which he has already impressively demonstrated that major finals, albeit on the national stage, are one of his specialities.
Manchester City – Statistics & current form
Seldom has a team’s appearance in the final of European football’s premier league been as deserved as it was for Manchester City in 2022/23. The Citizens have not lost any of their 12 matches in the competition to date. They have won seven and drawn five. Meanwhile, it has now been as many as 18 consecutive Champions League matches in which coach Pep Guardiola’s side have remained unbeaten.
After the Sky Blues narrowly lost the 2021 final to Chelsea 1-0, Manchester City could actually become only the third club after Valencia and Atletico Madrid to lose their first two finals for the handle trophy. However, a look at the Manchester City vs. Inter Milan odds paints a completely different picture. The English champions are considered to have the better chances, which is mainly due to the fact that FC Bayern and Real Madrid were recently eliminated in a very convincing manner in the first and second legs.
Pep has matured – City fans hope
Another positive is that Pep Guardiola, who has faced Inter Milan four times as a coach and has kept his team clean on three occasions, has learned. In the past, the Catalan approached many important matches a little too cerebral and tended to unsettle his own team with one or two tactical changes, but the confidence in the current squad is boundless. Especially in view of the fact that Pep can draw almost completely from the full and will field his best formation.
Of course, this includes Erling Haaland, who has already scored twelve goals in the current CL season and could become the first Norwegian since Ole Gunnar Solskjaer (for Manchester United against Bayern in 1999) to score in a final for the Cup of Henkel on Saturday. But Kevin de Bruyne and Ilkay Gündogan are at least as important to the Citizens’ possession game, which borders on perfection.
Will Gündogan be the match-winner again?
While the Belgian already has six assists to his name in the 2022/23 top flight, Gündogan, who may be playing his last game for the sky-blue-and-white, is in absolute top form after his brace in the FA Cup final a week ago against Manchester United (2-1).
Finally, the Citizens, who have won 43 of 60 competitive games this term (ten draws, seven defeats) and can claim the treble at the weekend, have lost just one of their last 27 encounters across the competition (21 wins, five draws). 16 of those 21 wins have come by at least a two-goal difference, so a handicap bet (-1) at top odds of 2.22 also offers some interesting value.
Last matches of Manchester City:
Champions League Final
- 11/06/2023 – Manchester City 1 – 0 Inter Milan
FA Cup
- 03/06/2023 – Manchester City 2 – 1 Manchester United
Premier League
- 28/05/2023 – Brentford 1 – 0 Manchester City
- 25/05/2023 – Brighton 1 – 1 Manchester City
- 21/05/2023 – Manchester City 1 – 0 Chelsea FC
Inter Milan – Statistics & current form
Few experts would have thought Inter Milan would make it to the final in the run-up to this Champions League season. The majority of experts probably even assumed that it would be very difficult for the Italians in a group with FC Bayern and FC Barcelona. Nevertheless, the Nerazzurri qualified for the knockout round behind the Munich team and ahead of the Catalans, where they have been convincing all along the line so far.
In all six matches from the round of 16 onwards, the Lombards remained without defeat. In fact, the only defeats in the tournament so far came in the group stage, both times against Bayern, coached by Julian Nagelsmann. Because they also lost their opening match against the German record champions, Inter have now become only the fourth club to reach the final after a defeat in their first match.
Inter must be able to rely on their defence
Mainly responsible for the somewhat surprising run to the final was the extremely stable defence, which has gone without conceding a goal in eight of 12 CL games this season and in five of six knockout encounters. It will be exciting to see whether the defence around goalkeeper Andre Onana, who has been credited with the most goalscoring opportunities, can hold its own against the Citizens’ attacking power.
Just how important it will be to score the first goal on Saturday night becomes clear from some exciting statistics. Inter Milan are now unbeaten in 15 CL games when they have taken a 1-0 lead. City have even lost only one of their last 32 matches in the top flight when they opened the scoring.
The Inzaghi eleven desperately needs relief
With a clear conscience, we therefore dare to predict between Man City and Inter Milan that the team that gains the first advantage in the form of a goal will ultimately have a good chance of lifting the trophy into the Istanbul night sky. Given that we don’t expect to see a goal spectacle due to the Italians’ probably rather cautious approach, it may also be worth considering combining the Citizens’ favourite win with the Under 3.5/Under 4.5.
On the offensive side, hopes are pinned on Lautaro Martinez, who has been in remarkable form of late, including having a hand in Milan’s Coppa Italia triumph. He is likely to be replaced by ex-City pro Edin Dzeko, despite the fact that the brawny Belgian is the only Inter player to have scored at least one goal in all the rounds so far (group stage to semi-final). All in all, Lukaku only needed 144 minutes and not a single (!) starting appearance to do so.
Last matches of Inter Milan:
Champions League Final
- 11/06/2023 – Manchester City 1 – 0 Inter Milan
Serie A
- 03/06/2023 – FC Torino 0 – 1 Inter Milan
- 28/05/2023 – Inter Milan 3 – 2 Atalanta Bergamo
Coppa Italia
- 25/05/2023 – AC Florence 1 – 2 Inter Milan
Serie A
- 21/05/2023 – SSC Napoli 3 – 1 Inter Milan
Man City – Inter Milan Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
The direct comparison is dealt with very quickly, as this is actually the first time the clubs have faced each other in an official competitive match on Saturday night. It is nevertheless exciting to note that 15 English teams have made it to the final in the Champions League era, but only six have ultimately won the title.
Inter, meanwhile, will be playing in a title match on the international stage for the 14th time. Their current record is positive, with eight wins and five defeats. The last Italian team to win the trophy was Inter Milan. In 2010 under Jose Mourinho against the favoured Bayern…
Man City – Inter Milan Tip
Pep Guardiola vs Simone Inzaghi, Hakan Calhanoglu vs Ilkay Gündogan, Erling Haaland vs Lautaro Martinez, England vs Italy – Saturday night’s Champions League final in Turkey is also a showdown of numerous explosive and high-class individual duels. Europe’s throne is at stake.
Who will succeed Real Madrid? Will a club from the motherland of football make it again after 2021 or will Inter repeat the surprising final success of 2010? The answer will be revealed on Saturday at 21:00.
In the run-up to the Manchester City vs. Inter Milan match, the betting odds are clearly in favour of the English side, who have not lost a CL match in 2022/23, are in a very good state of fitness and have made by far the best impression of all the teams in the competition.
Both the statistics and specific aspects with a view to tactics or the expected course of the game underline the Sky Blues’ understandable role as favourites in our eyes. We therefore recommend betting on a victory for Guardiola’s team after 90 minutes between Manchester City and Inter Milan and risk eight out of ten possible units at top odds of 1.50.
