13th PL home win in a row for City against Aston Villa?
The two leaders in the English Premier League were also in step last weekend, but both teams suffered a defeat. Especially for the defending champions it was extremely bitter that the gap could not be reduced.
Guardiola’s side are home favourites again this weekend at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday. Between Manchester City and Aston Villa, odds of just 1.25 are offered on the hosts.
The Skyblues last lost two league games in a row in 2018. What’s more, the visitors from Birmingham have had a man on the bench for a few weeks who has a disastrous record against his compatriot Pep Guardiola.
Unai Emery has not celebrated a single victory in twelve games. Will 13 really be Pep Guardiola’s unlucky number? If so, there would be a hefty profit waiting, as double-digit odds are on offer between Manchester City and Aston Villa when predicting the visitors.
As was the case last weekend, Manchester City take on rivals Arsenal. The Gunners are already in action on Saturday and can once again increase the pressure on Haaland & Co.
Manchester City – statistics & current form
The last few days have been hard to digest for a Manchester City fan. The club was rarely seen as a sympathetic figure to the outside world anyway, but accusations that the club had breached financial rules on more than 100 occasions could have drastic repercussions. Pep Guardiola always affirmed that he would leave the club if it had deliberately made wrong decisions.
In view of this, it is currently very unlikely that he will fulfil his employment contract, which runs until 2025. Sunday’s home game will be his 250th Premier League game as City coach, having won no fewer than 183 of the 249 previous matches. 73.5% win percentage is, of course, the highest in PL history.
Five points behind with one match more
But it wasn’t just the revelations surrounding this scandal that were a punch in the stomach, it was also their final Premier League appearance. The reigning champions conceded a 1-0 defeat away to Tottenham Hotspurs. Superstar Erling Braut Haaland did not make a single contact with the ball in the opposing 16. The 25-time season goal scorer was a pale shadow for the entire duration of the game.
The defeat meant that Manchester City failed to close the gap on the Gunners. The Citizens are still five points behind, despite having played one game more. With four defeats already this season, there has already been one more defeat in 2022/23 than in the whole of last season.
The preparation for the home game is by no means ideal, but Manchester City can enter the Etihad Stadium with a broad chest. In the last 15 Premier League home games, the reigning champions have collected 40 out of a possible 45 points (13 wins, one draw, one defeat). Moreover, Sunday is a good day for the Citizens, who have won nine of their last ten appearances at the Etihad on Sunday, scoring 39 goals in the process. In all ten games, City scored at least twice. Unsurprisingly, betting on lots of goals is the obvious bet for Manchester City against Aston Villa.
Last matches played by Manchester City:
Premier League
05/02/2023 – Tottenham 1 – 0 Manchester City
FA Cup
28/01/2023 – Manchester City 1 – 0 FC Arsenal
Premier League
22/01/2023 – Manchester City 3 – 0 Wolverhampton
20/01/2023 – Manchester City 4 – 2 Tottenham
14/01/2023 – Manchester United 2 – 1 Manchester City
Aston Villa – Statistics & current form
Unai Emery lost his nimbus of invincibility as Aston Villa coach in the English Premier League last weekend. After the Villans suffered two defeats in their first nine competitive games only in the cup competitions, it was the same in the league at home against Leicester City.
In an entertaining, spectacular game, the hosts lost 4-2, missing out on a move into the top half of the table and leaving Emery’s side in no-man’s land.
Goal threat rediscovered
After ten competitive games, Unai Emery is averaging 1.60 points per game. An acceptable, but by no means outstanding value for the former coach of the yellow submarine from Villarreal.
The biggest difference to predecessor Steven Gerrard, however, can be seen in the forward play. The Birmingham team relies on the same personnel, but the philosophy has changed. Aston Villa are scoring regularly again and have scored in all eight PL games under Emery. In the process, 14 goals have been scored. This compares to the 15 games it took Aston Villa to score 14 goals before.
This much more attacking style of play serves as a further argument to recommend betting on both teams to score on Sunday afternoon when Manchester City take on Aston Villa. Aston Villa have won all of their last three away games and, should they pull off the big upset, Emery would become only the second Villa manager in club history to win his first four away games. A feat previously only achieved by a certain John Gregory (Spring 1998).
Last games played by Aston Villa:
Premier League
04/02/2023 – Aston Villa 2 – 4 Leicester
21/01/2023 – Southampton 0 – 1 Aston Villa
14/01/2023 – Aston Villa 2 – 1 Leeds
FA Cup
08/01/2023 – Aston Villa 1 – 2 Stevenage
Premier League
05/01/2023 – Aston Villa 1 – 1 Wolverhampton
Manchester City – Aston Villa Direct comparison / H2H record
On the last matchday of last season, Aston Villa almost decided the title battle in Liverpool’s favour. Despite leading 2-0 at one stage, the team from Birmingham still lost and City became champions again.
The team was denied a point in the last game of 2021/22, but this was made up for in the first leg of the current season. In front of their home crowd, the Villians achieved a remarkable 1-1 draw. If the champions are now also upset on Sunday, Aston Villa would score in both league games against the Skyblues for the first time since the 2000/01 season.
However, not only is betting on the away win highly unrealistic due to the difference in quality between Manchester City and Aston Villa, but it is also statistically conditional. Aston Villa have won only one of their last 29 away games at the reigning champions (six draws, 22 defeats). The last eight such games have all been lost, goal difference 6:26. Furthermore, Aston Villa have lost all of their last twelve PL away games at Manchester City.
Manchester City – Aston Villa betting tips
For decent odds to be recommended between Manchester City and Aston Villa, a little risk must be factored in. The bare numbers speak a clear language and underline the clear favouritism in favour of the hosts. But the bet on the home win is not lucrative, on the handicap win it becomes at least a little more interesting and such a bet can be found in our top tips.
It will be very interesting if there is no one-way football to be seen on Sunday afternoon, but the guest can also play along. Aston Villa have taken a step forward under Emery, winning all three home games and scoring in all eight league matches. The Skyblues are definitely a little vulnerable at the moment and therefore our betting recommendation on Sunday between Manchester City and Aston Villa is to predict both teams to score.
