Will Malmo pull themselves out of a tight spot?

Never before has a Lithuanian football team qualified for the group stage of the UEFA Champions League. It is extremely unlikely that this will happen for the first time in 2022/23, of all years, although the reigning champions from A Lyga look set to pull off a huge surprise coup in the second qualifying round on Wednesday night.

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Because the first leg between Malmö and Zalgiris a week ago proved a prediction for the underdog’s success and the Baltic side could now realise a place in the third qualifying round with just a draw thanks to a 1-0 win in front of their home crowd, excitement is on the cards in Sweden’s third largest city on Wednesday night. Tension that one would not necessarily have expected in the run-up to this pairing and given the qualitative differences.

Despite the aforementioned defeat from the point of view of Milojevic’s side, who were still in the group stage of the top flight last season, Malmö are still favourites to progress against Zalgiris according to the odds ahead of the second leg. Quotes of 1.30 on average on the “To-Qualify” market prove that the bookmakers even expect a higher success of the Scandinavians.

Malmö – Statistics & current form

After a six-year drought, Malmö finally secured the right to compete in the 32-team Champions League main draw in pre-season. After five wins, two draws and only one defeat in a total of eight qualifying matches against Riga, HJK Helsinki, Glasgow Rangers and Ludogorez Rasgrad, their participation was certain. The fact that the Scandinavians had to pull out immediately with only one point and one goal scored in six group matches was almost a minor matter in view of the adventurous character.

Nevertheless, the Swedish record champions smelled a rat and impressively proved that they can fight their way through tough qualifying rounds. It is precisely this combative attitude that is needed now to avoid “getting knocked on the head” in round two against the Lithuanian outsiders and “relegated” to the Europa League.

Malmö must improve

A week ago, coach Milojevic’s side fell far short of their own expectations, having more possession than Zalgiris and also launching more attacks, but the bare final score (0:1) and also the double number of shots in favour of the Lithuanians underpinned the poor performance of the favourites, who reached the Europa League Intermediate Round in 2020 and 2019 respectively and thus enjoy a very different reputation on the international stage than their opponents.

On the other hand, the fact that the form curve in the league has been pointing in the right direction recently gives hope for a significant improvement in performance on Wednesday evening. After all, five of the last six games in the Allsvenskan have been victorious. In the last three matchdays, there were even three victories; the dress rehearsal also went according to plan at the weekend with a 3:1 home victory against Sirius, so that the gap to the top of the table could be reduced to two points.

Apart from that, home strength should play into the Light Blue and White’s hands. In 2021/22, all four qualifying matches were won at home. In the current league season, the reigning Swedish champions have six wins from eight home matches. Four of those six wins have come in the first leg, so we’re not averse to betting on a double HT1/FT1 result between Malmö and Zalgiris.

Predicted line-up of Malmö:
Dahlin; Beijmo, Hadzikadunic, Moisander, Olsson; Christiansen, Siby, Pena; Berget Thelin, Birmancevic

Last matches played by Malmö:

Allsvenskan
23/07/2022 – Malmö FF 3 – 1 Sirius

Champions League Qualifier
19/07/2022 – Zalgiris Vilnius 1 – 0 Malmo FF

Allsvenskan
16/07/2022 – IFK Norrköping 0 – 2 Malmö FF

Champions League Qualifier
13/07/2022 – Vikingur Reykjavik 3 – 3 Malmö FF

Allsvenskan
09/07/2022 – Malmö FF 3 – 0 Varbergs BoIS FC

Zalgiris – Statistics & current form

Zalgiris Vilinus can really do something historic on Wednesday night. Never before has the capital club qualified for an international group stage. But if a prediction on the underdog now pays off in the second qualifying round between Malmö and Zalgiris, the Balts would not only be safe in round three, but would also have automatically punched their ticket to the Conference League group stage, even if they lost their upcoming matches in the CL and EL qualifiers.

Despite the 1-0 win, however, coach Vladimir Cheburin’s team are still considered outsiders. No wonder, because you won’t find any big names in the Lithuanian line-up. Not a single player is worth more than one million euros. Malmö’s squad is worth five times as much in total, which implies a clear difference in quality.

Zalgiris no longer know how to lose

It is also worth mentioning a very interesting statistic: in Champions League qualifying, the northern Europeans have played a total of six second legs in the second round this millennium and have always lost out. In ten of the eleven knockouts in qualifying, the second leg was lost. In half of all cases, the Lithuanians even failed to score a goal of their own. From a purely statistical point of view, it is therefore conceivable to take a closer look at the odds on a home win to nil in the clash between Malmö and Zalgiris.

The underdog’s goal will of course be to keep the defensive zero for as long as possible. A draw would be enough for a surprising progress. However, if the Cheburin eleven, who lost 0:2 and 1:3 against Ferencvaros in last year’s second qualifying round, concedes an early goal, we do not rule out a higher home victory for the Swedes. So a lot depends on the first 45 minutes.

In any case, there will be no lack of confidence, as in the entire calendar year 2022 only two of 25 competitive matches were lost. Zalgiris remained unbeaten away from home 16 times in a row. However, these impressive records are not really meaningful, because the home A Lyga does not come close to the calibre that awaits the Swedish record champions on Wednesday evening. Changes in personnel are not to be expected. Why should they? Coach Cheburin could be extremely pleased with the performance of his boys a week ago.

Predicted line-up of Zalgiris:
Gertmonas; Bopesu, Pavelic, Ljubisavljevic, Mamic; Buff, Milickovic, Gorobsov, Ourega; Oyewusi, Oliveira

Last matches played by Zalgiris:

Champions League Qualifier
19/07/2022 – Zalgiris Vilnius 1 – 0 Malmo FF

12/07/2022 – Zalgiris Wilna 1 – 0 Ballkani

06/07/2022 – Ballkani 1 – 1 Zalgiris Vilnius

A Lyga
01/07/2022 – Zalgiris Vilnius 2 – 1 Hegelmann

26/06/2022 – Suduva 0 – 5 Zalgiris Vilnius

Malmö – Zalgiris Direct comparison / H2H balance

The teams already met in the second round of Champions League qualifying in 2015/16. After a 0-0 draw in the first leg, Malmö won the return leg 1-0 in Lithuania and managed to advance to the next round. This time, the Swedes have to overturn a 0:1 deficit, but they get to play in front of their home crowd. It will be only the fourth meeting for the Light Blue and White against a Lithuanian representative.

Malmö – Zalgiris Tip

Malmö will fight against early elimination in the Champions League qualifiers on Wednesday evening. After the disappointing 0:1 defeat in the first leg in Lithuania, the Swedish record champions are under pressure and must show a completely different face than a week ago.

The bookmakers, however, definitely believe that last year’s group stage participants can improve their performance and therefore offer significantly lower betting odds on a home win before the second leg of the Malmö vs Zalgiris match. The top odds on the three-way market are a meagre 1.22, so we’ll have to get a little creative to generate decent value.

We therefore switch to a combined bet and say, on the one hand, that the Milojevic eleven will reach the next round and, on the other, that they will record a start-finish victory. For the Malmö vs. Zalgiris bet on “Malmö TQ & HT1/FT1”