Do the Mallorcans underline their home strength?
Last weekend was the first matchday in the Spanish football top flight. The teams were stingy with many goals, because in only three of the ten games was the bet on a score of over 2.5 the right decision. The first match on the second matchday will take place on Germany’s favourite island. On Friday evening, Mallorca and Villarreal will offer balanced betting odds on the outcome of the match.
The visitors are rated higher in terms of quality, but they conceded two defeats against the islanders last season. In addition, Javier Aguirre’s team is considered very strong at home, which is also an argument between Mallorca and Villarreal for a prediction in the direction of the home side. Mallorca started the new season with a 1-1 draw at UD Las Palmas, while Villarreal narrowly lost 2-1 to Betis Sevilla due to a late goal.
There is no real showdown on the second matchday in the Spanish football top flight, but on Sunday the grand final of the Women’s World Cup 2023 is on the agenda. Spain will meet England in the final.
Mallorca – Statistics & current form
There is a myth in many quarters that the second year after promotion is the most difficult. Javier Aguirre’s team could not confirm this thesis last year. On their return to LaLiga, the team finished in 16th place and managed to top this result by finishing in ninth place with a total of eleven points more. In the final standings, RCD Mallorca were just three points short of qualifying for the UEFA Europa Conference League
Mallorca convince especially at home
Mainly responsible for this strong season were the performances in front of the home crowd. Ten of the 19 home games were won and only four teams were able to return home from the holiday island with a victory in their luggage. The last home defeat dates back to 4 March 2023, a surprising 1-0 loss against Elche. The Mallorcans have now been unbeaten at Son Moix for seven LaLiga matches. This strong home record ensures that the higher odds on a home win in Mallorca vs. Villarreal are not understandable.
Compared to last year, the squad of the Majorcans has once again gained in quality. Especially the signings of former international Sergi Darder and striker Cyle Larin are real reinforcements. With Muriqi and Larin, the Mallorcans now have two accurate strikers who will cause problems for the opposing defence. However, the basic philosophy is relatively defensive. With a five-man backline, the defence is stabilised and therefore games with few goals are not uncommon. In 2022/23, there was an average of only 2.11 goals per game and only twelve games ended with a score above 2.5.
There were only two goals, equally distributed on both sides, in the league opener at UD Las Palmas. Mallorca rallied from a second-half deficit to at least start the season with a point.
Predicted Mallorca line-up:
Mallorca (Expected line-up) 3-4-2-1
Villarreal – Statistics & current form
There is no great euphoria among the fans of the yellow sub at the moment. This is not because the league opener was narrowly lost against a direct competitor, but the transfer policy is souring many fans. The transfer window so far has certainly paid off financially, after all, the club has already generated over 100 million euros in transfer income. However, the price was a clear loss of quality, because players like Pau Torres, Samu Chukwueze or Nicolas Jackson are difficult to compensate.
Especially since the transfer income has not been reinvested so far. Ben Brereton Diaz (Blackburn Rovers), Santi Comasena (Rayo Vallecano) or Alexander Sörloth (Leipzig/Real Sociedad) are not so-called “game changers”. Moreover, many fans are still missing a goalkeeper, as the 21-year-old Dane Filip Jörgensen is not considered a worthy number one. From a sober point of view, the yellow submarine has yet to show the quality it had last year.
Setien not dissatisfied despite defeat
Low in stoppage time, Willian Jose was completely free to head home last week and netted to make it 2-1. The problems in the defence were clearly visible in this action, because the allocation was not right at all. This was already evident in the preparation, as the results were sobering. A 1:6 against FC Sankt Gallen in the first test match could still be glossed over with a little imagination, but the yellow submarine was also unable to convince against Sporting Lisbon (0:3), Newcastle (0:4) or Nice (1:1). The only victory came against Austrian representative Cashpoint SCR Altach.
The fans feel that their worries are currently confirmed. And indeed, it is hard to believe that the home-strong Mallorcans will be able to break the deadlock. In terms of quality, Villarreal are stronger despite the departures, but the current weak form suggests that the prediction on the double chance 1X or “Draw No Bet 1” are worth a recommendation for Mallorca vs. Villarreal.
Predicted Villarreal line-up:
FC Villarreal (Expected line-up) 4-3-1-2
Mallorca – Villarreal Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
In the final standings of last season, the yellow submarine ranked ahead of the island kickers from Mallorca, but there was no reason to cheer in the direct comparison. The Mallorcans first celebrated a 2:0 victory away from home before winning the home match in thrilling fashion with 4:2. Such a goal festival is rare at Mallorca Son Moix; last year there were only 34 goals in total, six of them in this duel.
Despite these two victories, the historical direct comparison in the Spanish football top flight between Mallorca and Villarreal favours a prediction on the yellow submarine. Villarreal won 14 of their 32 games (nine draws, nine defeats).
Mallorca – Villarreal prediction
Based on the starting situation, the role of favourites for the visitors around head coach Quique Setien does seem a little surprising. A close game is to be expected in which nuances will decide the outcome. The yellow submarine’s poor performances in preparation for the second LaLiga matchday between Mallorca and Villarreal mean that the tips are leaning towards the home side.
We would definitely rate an away win for Villarreal as a surprise. However, between Mallorca and Villarreal, predicting a home win in the 1X2 market also seems too risky to us. Mallorca will focus a lot on defensive work, Villarreal lack the confidence to pull up their strong passing game. It wouldn’t be surprising if we find few scoring opportunities in this game and both teams settle for a draw as the match progresses. Therefore, low three units bet between Mallorca and Villarreal at odds of 3.15 for the prediction of a draw.
