Will the home-strong Pirates hold their own against Los Che?

While RCD Mallorca, with 44 points under their belt, can already start planning for next season’s La Liga campaign, Valencia CF still have some watching to do. With 40 points, the lead over the first relegation place is five points. With three games left to play, however, the Murciélagos should score once more to be completely safe. However, there is little to be said for betting on Mallorca against Valencia.

The fact that the Blanquinegros have just 40 points on their account is primarily due to their poor performance on away grounds. Los Che have lost a full eleven of their 17 away games in La Liga (three wins, three draws), scoring just 14 goals away from home. Considering that the Mallorcans have the second-best home defence in La Liga, our prediction leans towards the home side in Mallorca vs. Valencia.

Although the Murciélagos lead the direct comparison very clearly. In the recent past, however, this duel has been predominantly in the hands of RCD Mallorca. The Pirates have only lost four of their last 14 La Liga games against Valencia CF (six wins, four draws) and already celebrated a 2-1 victory in the first leg. Accordingly, there is a lot of value in betting that the Bermellones, who are strong at home, can now follow up with a win at the Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.

If the bet on a home win for the Mallorcans seems too risky, you can alternatively either bet on a low-scoring match (possibly also in conjunction with the double chance 1X) or hedge the win bet by using a free bet to place your bet.

Mallorca – Statistics & current form

Real Club Deportivo Mallorca – once overall Copa del Rey winners in 2003 – returned to La Liga in the summer of 2021. There, the Pirates narrowly stayed in the league in 16th place in the final table. A correspondingly tight year was also predicted for the Bermellones in the 2022/23 season.

However, with 44 points to their name, they can now confidently start planning for another year in Spain’s top flight, thanks in particular to the Mallorcan side’s home form.

Nowhere were there so few goals scored as at Son Moix

At home at the Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, RCD scored almost nothing. The Bermellones have lost just four of their 17 home La Liga games (eight wins, five draws), with only new champions Barcelona conceding fewer goals at home (just four) than Mallorca (twelve).

However, the second-best home defence in La Liga is matched by the second-weakest home attack. With 18:12 goals from 17 home games, it should also be noted that in no other stadium in La Liga were there so few goal participations as in the Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, where on average only 1.76 goals were scored per game.

Lost three of last five league games

While in the home stretch of the season, the Pirates have faltered somewhat of late. The recent 0:3 at Almeria was already the third defeat among the last five league games (one win, one draw), from which only four of 15 possible points were taken.

Nevertheless, the odds are very much in favour of a home win for the Bermellones against Valencia. After all, the Mallorcans have recently gone unbeaten in five consecutive league games at home (two wins, three draws), thus confirming their home strength.

Valencia – Statistics & current form

After a sobering ninth place in the final table of the 2021/22 season and the loss of the Copa del Rey final, it was clear that Valencia Club de Fútbol would not play internationally for the 2022/23 season.

Accordingly, the objective for the new season was clear: to return to the top third of the table. Three matchdays before the end of the season, however, Los Che have not only missed this target, but they still have to fear for their membership in La Liga.

13 points from a possible 18 from their last six league games

With a five-point lead over the first relegation place, not much is missing to keep the team in the league. Nevertheless, it has to be said that things did not go too well under coach Rubén Baraja, who was appointed in February.

The Blanquinegros only managed to win two of the first eight league games under the 47-year-old, before the knot broke in the last few weeks. Valencia CF recently picked up 13 of a possible 18 points from their last six games, but also lost 2-1 at relegation-threatened Cádiz CF during this period.

Eleven of the 17 away games lost in La Liga

All in all, it was the Murciélagos’ away weakness that has been a common thread throughout their complicated 2022/23 season. Only Valladolid, Almeria and Elche (13 each) have suffered more away defeats than Valencia (eleven).

It is therefore surprising that the odds on Mallorca against Valencia are swinging in the direction of the Blanquinegros, who apart from the momentum they have built up recently actually have very little to put on the line. Even historically, only four of the last 14 duels with the Mallorcans in La Liga have been won (four draws, six defeats)…

Mallorca – Valencia Direct Comparison / H2H Record

Head to head: 15 – 13 – 37

There have been a total of 65 meetings between the two teams so far and overall Valencia clearly leads the head-to-head comparison with 37 wins. Most recently, however, the Murciélagos have won only one of their last 14 La Liga duels against Mallorca (four draws, six defeats). Mallorca also won the first leg 2-1 at the Mestalla.

Mallorca – Valencia Tip

For Mallorca against Valencia, our prediction goes to the home-strong Pirates, who have lost just four of their 17 home La Liga games in the 2022/23 season and have the second-best home defence behind champions Barcelona (four), conceding just 12 goals. It is true that the Murciélagos have always scored against Mallorca in 14 of their last 15 La Liga meetings. However, considering that Los Che have lost 11 of their 17 away games this season and have scored just 14 away goals, it might be difficult for the visitors to score already.

Accordingly, we find a lot of value in betting on a home win for the Mallorcans, who have already won the first leg 2-1 and have only lost two of their last nine La Liga games, which came on a Thursday (five wins, two draws).