Goals in Africa again scarce?

For lovers of attacking football, the Africa Cup was no real eye-catcher at the beginning of the year. In a total of 52 tournament matches, just 100 goals were scored, i.e. an average of less than two per match. In 26 of the 34 preliminary round matches alone, a bet on the under 2.5 would have paid off. The majority of all matches ended either 0:0, 1:0 or 1:1.

These collected impressions from the continental championship in Cameroon are definitely also an indication that rather few goals are also expected in the upcoming World Cup qualifiers on African soil. In the eagerly awaited first leg of the play-off between Mali and Tunisia, the odds for a match with a maximum of two goals are even below 1.40.

The question of which of the two national teams will ultimately make it to Qatar is not easy to answer. However, judging by their performances in the group phase, the Eagles from West Africa definitely have their work cut out for them. However, the Eagles from Carthage should not be underestimated, especially in view of the fact that they have already had the opportunity to show their colours at several World Cups.

Mali – Statistics & current form

There is hardly a national team on the “black” continent that has such an expensive squad as Mali. Players like Abdoulaye Doucouré, Yves Bissouma, Amadou Haidara, Moussa Djenepo, Diadié Samassekou, Cheick Doucouré and many others earn their money in Europe’s top leagues, for example, and therefore represent a great deal of individual quality.

However, the fact that the footballing class of individual professionals does not necessarily mean that the team is also successful became clear at the Africa Cup. Having started with great ambitions, Mali had already reached the round of 16. After seven points from their first three matches, they were eliminated from the last 16 by Equatorial Guinea on penalties. The disappointment was complete, despite the fact that the defence was once again convincing, conceding only one goal in four matches at the tournament.

Mali once again rely on their own defence

This stability in the game against the ball had already become apparent, as Mali also went without conceding a goal in six matches in the second qualifying stage for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. Five wins, one draw and a goal difference of 11:0 are reasons to bet on the home side between Mali and Tunisia.

Nevertheless, you can of course think about betting that there will be few goals. In 18 of the 20 international matches played since the beginning of 2021, the 2.5 goal mark has not been broken. In 14 cases, a maximum of one goal was scored, and 12 times the score was still 0-0 at the break, which is why the odds on the under 1.5 or another first half without a goal should also be considered for the first leg of the play-off between Mali and Tunisia.

Predicted line-up of Mali:
Mounkoro; Haidara, Kouyate, Fofana, Traore; Haidara, Doucoure, Bissouma; Doumbia, Traore, Kone

Last matches played by Mali:

Africa Nations Cup Final
01/26 2022 – Mali (5)0 – 0(6) Equatorial Guinea

Africa Nations Cup Grp. F
01/20 2022 – Mali 2 – 0 Mauritania

01/16 2022 – Gambia 1 – 1 Mali

01/12 2022 – Tunisia 0 – 1 Mali

WM Qualification CAF – 2nd Round – Grp. E
11/14 2021 – Mali 1 – 0 Uganda

Tunisia – Statistics & current form

The Tunisian national team has qualified for the World Cup finals five times so far. The North Africans also took part in the last edition in Russia in 2018, but failed in the preliminary round, as they did in the previous four attempts. In 2022, however, Jalel Kadri’s team would definitely be happy to make the leap to Qatar.

By the way, Friday will be Kadri’s first international match in charge. The former co-coach succeeds his former boss Mondher Kebaier, who had to resign after the quarter-final exit at the 2022 Africa Cup. After a good two years, there is now a new wind blowing in the air at the helm of the world number 36, who also came out on top in a quite complicated qualifying group with Equatorial Guinea, Zambia and Mauritania and now want to secure their World Cup ticket against Mali after a first leg and a second leg.

Tunisia hope for a good starting position for the second leg

Despite the change in the coaching position, the basic style of the team is unlikely to change much. Similar to their upcoming opponents, the focus will be on defence. Tunisia also conceded only two goals in their six previous qualifiers and never conceded more than one goal in five matches at the Africa Cup. In four of the five matches mentioned, the under 1.5 would have gone through, which is why we are once again betting on a maximum of one goal in the upcoming 90 minutes before the clash between Mali and Tunisia.

The new national coach has not brought any surprises in terms of personnel. Instead, Jalel Kadri is relying on exactly the same squad that could not necessarily live up to the high expectations at the beginning of the year. The best-known player from a German perspective is certainly Ellyes Skhiri from 1. FC Köln, who is supposed to provide the necessary stability in central midfield in front of the defence and establish compactness.

Predicted line-up of Tunisia:
Said; Drager, Bronn, Ifa, Hadadi; Skhiri, Laidouni, Slimane; Jaziri, Msakni, Khazri

Last matches played by Tunisia:

Africa Nations Cup Final
01/29 2022 – Burkina Faso 1 – 0 Tunisia

01/23 2022 – Nigeria 0 – 1 Tunisia

Africa Nations Cup Grp. F
01/20 2022 – Gambia 1 – 0 Tunisia

01/16 2022 – Tunisia 4 – 0 Mauritania

01/12 2022 – Tunisia 0 – 1 Mali

Mali – Tunisia Direct comparison / H2H balance

There have been eleven international matches between these two nations so far. With five wins and one draw each, their record is absolutely balanced. However, this is the very first time that they will meet in the course of a World Cup qualifier. Incidentally, Mali have never lost in three competitive matches (two wins, one draw).

At the Africa Cup at the beginning of the year, the Eagles from West Africa narrowly won 1-0 against the Eagles of Carthage. The score was 0-0 at half-time, but it was a penalty kick that decided a memorable match in which the referee blew his whistle twice too early.

Mali – Tunisia Tip

It was not until January of this year that these two national teams met in the preliminary round of the Africa Cup. The focus of that encounter, however, was on referee Janny Sikazwe, who did not have his best day, blew the whistle twice too early and also caused a tangible scandal with his bizarre decisions.

On Friday, on the other hand, the focus will be on the players. In our eyes, the home side are slight favourites in this first leg in front of their home crowd, as they have more individual quality and went six group matches without conceding a goal in the second round of qualifying. Even a draw would satisfy the Eagles of Carthage. For the X after 90 minutes, betting odds of 3.00 at the top are on offer between Mali and Tunisia

Even more promising in our eyes, however, is a bet that once again very few goals will be scored. Already at the Africa Cup, the defence was mostly in the spotlight. This is unlikely to change in the all-important relegation matches for the 2022 World Cup. All the statistics also point to a low-scoring match.