Mainz will be looking to improve their record against the Eisernen
Mainz will remember the start of the 2013/14 season very fondly. It was the first and only time that the Nullfünfer started the new Bundesliga season with three wins in a row. The reward was a place in the European Cup after 34 match days. In 2022/23, the Rheinhessen side are preparing to make another perfect start.
After the 2-1 away win in Bochum the previous week, coach Bo Svensson’s side are now looking forward to their first home game. Should FSV be able to build on their outstanding performances in front of a home crowd from pre-season, there is much to suggest that a prediction on the hosts will pay off once again this weekend in the first of two Sunday matches between Mainz and Union Berlin.
However, the guests from the capital should not be underestimated. The Eisernen also celebrated a treble at the start of the season and already seem to be on the right track again after one or two painful departures in the summer. Away from home, however, the Köpenicker have been much weaker than at home in recent years. As a result, we can understand the higher odds on the visitors’ three-goal win ahead of the Mainz vs Union Berlin clash.
Mainz – Statistics & current form
Last season, FSV Mainz 05 were not only one of the positive surprises in the Bundesliga, but also one of the best home teams ever. As many as ten of the 17 games in front of a home crowd were won by the “Nullfünfer”.
Five draws and only two defeats and the fewest goals conceded of all first-division teams (eleven) rounded off the very strong record. Of the past 13 home games in the Bundesliga, only one was lost (eight wins, five draws). For this reason alone, we are not averse to placing a bet on the Rheinhessen side between Mainz and Union Berlin. Possibly also in combination with an under-goal bet.
Mainz want to confirm their home record from last year
The 2-1 opening win in Bochum is also a positive sign, which means that Svensson’s team will go into the first home game of the new season with the right amount of confidence. Incidentally, the Red and Whites have already won three of their last four games. Since matchday 32, no other Bundesliga team has scored more points than FSV. It is quite possible that this remarkable trend will continue this weekend.
Only one or two painful absences are causing the coach a few beads of sweat on his forehead. Among others, Jonny Burkardt has to miss out due to a muscle injury. Danny da Costa and Niklas Tauer are also absent. The offensive hopes rest all the more on Karim Onisiwo, who scored a brace in Bochum but has never scored in consecutive Bundesliga games in his career. Should that change, appealing odds are offered on the Austrian scoring between Mainz and Union Berlin.
Predicted line-up of Mainz:
Zentner – Bell, Hack, Leitsch – Widmer, J.-S. Lee, Kohr, Aaron – Stach, Fulgini – Onisiwo
Last matches played by Mainz:
Bundesliga
06/08/2022 – VfL Bochum 1 – 2 Mainz 05
DFB Cup
31/07/2022 – Erzgebirge Aue 0 – 3 Mainz 05
Friendly club matches
23/07/2022 – Mainz 05 1 – 1 Athletic Bilbao
18/07/2022 – Mainz 05 1 – 0 Newcastle
16/07/2022 – Beşiktaş 1 – 0 Mainz 05
Union Berlin – Statistics & current form
Five years ago, Union Berlin was “only” an ambitious second-division club that played a good role in the 2nd Bundesliga promotion battle every now and then, but often failed. Since Urs Fischer took over as coach in the summer of 2018, however, the development curve has been pointing consistently upwards. In his first season, the team was promoted via the relegation play-off. The subsequent period in Germany’s top division can be described as a sensational success story.
The Eisernen reached their high point last season when they finished fifth in the final standings. In a few weeks’ time, the Red and Whites will represent the capital in the European Cup, or more precisely in the Europa League. Before that, however, the focus is naturally on the Bundesliga, where the Köpenickers immediately put the next exclamation mark on the first matchday with a commanding derby victory over Hertha.
Fourth BL away win in a row for Union?
Last year, however, it was already the case that Union were far more prone to losing points away from home than at home. Two defeats at the Stadion an der alten Försterei were offset by seven defeats away from home. In addition, the number of goals conceded was significantly higher (27-17). The record would have been even weaker, but thanks to a furious finish with three away victories in a row (10:3 goals), a better impression remained.
Despite the fact that the Fischer eleven now have eight Bundesliga games in a row without defeat (seven wins, one draw), we believe that no three points will go to Berlin on Sunday in the tranquil carnival stronghold. Instead, we expect a competitive match between equals in which not many goals will be scored.
Becker and Siebatcheu – the new dream duo in iron skies
And if the ball should still hit the opponent’s box from the Ironmen’s point of view, you can actually be sure that Sheraldo Becker had his feet in the game. The Dutchman has already had four league games in 2022 in which he managed at least one goal and one assist. Only a certain Christopher Nkunku can look back on a similar haul this calendar year.
In Jordan Siebatcheu, the new arrival from Bern, the speedy Becker has also found a perfect recipient in the penalty area. The brawny striker scored in his first two competitive games for the new club and is also one of the first candidates for a potential goalscorer bet this weekend. Changes in personnel are not to be expected. With the exception of Baumgartl, all players are involved.
Predicted line-up of Union Berlin:
Rönnow – Jaeckel, Knoche, Diogo Leite – Trimmel, R. Khedira, Ryerson – Haraguchi, Haberer – Becker, Siebatcheu
Last matches played by Union Berlin:
Friendly club matches
09/08/2022 – Union Berlin 1 – 1 Hannover 96
Bundesliga
06/08/2022 – Union Berlin 3 – 1 Hertha BSC
DFB Cup
01/08/2022 – Chemnitzer FC 1 – 2 Union Berlin
Friendly club matches
23/07/2022 – Union Berlin 1 – 0 Nottingham Forest
16/07/2022 – Udinese 3 – 3 Union Berlin
Mainz – Union Berlin Direct comparison / H2H balance
This is the seventh time this pairing has taken place in the Bundesliga. Four of the previous six meetings went to the Berliners. Only once did Mainz retain the upper hand. Only against BVB do the Rheinhessen have an even lower win ratio than against the Eisernen. Union, on the other hand, have not scored more goals against any other club in the top flight than against FSV. However, the direct comparison does not change our basic idea of making a prediction on the home team between Mainz and Union Berlin.
Mainz – Union Berlin Tip
Mainz and Union Berlin have built up a very good reputation, step by step, with a lot of meticulous work and continuity in important positions. On Sunday, starting at 3:30 p.m., it comes to the eagerly awaited direct duel, before which the home side is slightly favoured.
In the pre-season, the Rheinhessen side was one of the strongest teams in the league at home, conceding only two defeats in front of their own fans and having by far the best home defence in the league. In more than half of all matches, a combined bet on 1X and Under 3.5 would have gone through. For the upcoming clash between Mainz and Union Berlin, the betting odds are a respectable 1.75.
