Low-scoring basement duel in Rhineland-Palatinate?

Last season, both opponents were still fighting for a place in a European competition, which only Berlin managed to reach. However, FSV were also very satisfied with their 2022-23 season, finishing ninth in the final table. In the new season, both clubs find themselves in the relegation battle. The Köpenickers are in a much better starting position. If Mainz win against Union Berlin, the betting tip on the Iron team picking up a point would leave them at least six points clear of a direct relegation spot

The Nullfünfer, meanwhile, are in 17th place with just eleven points from 19 league games. FSV have won just one of their last 24 Bundesliga games this season (nine draws, 14 defeats). In principle, it is therefore consistent that the forecast for Mainz against Union Berlin tends to favor the visitors from the state capital, who are also stuck so deep in the cellar because things have not gone too well on foreign pitches

Not only are both teams very weak offensively – Köpenick’s 18 league goals are only bettered by Cologne and 1. FSV Mainz 05 (14 each) – but they are also definitely not in their element on Wednesday evening. No other Bundesliga side has scored as poorly at home as the Rheinhessen, who have picked up just five points at home with only six goals scored. And no other German first division team has lost as often away from home (eight times) and scored as few points away from home (just four) as the Ironers.

In view of the fact that the two teams with the Bundesliga’s weakest chance conversion rate (Mainz 24%, Union Berlin 21%) will clash here, we expect a correspondingly low-scoring basement duel. We recommend betting on under 2.5 goals.

Mainz – Statistics & current form

1. FSV Mainz 05 are still deep in the relegation battle. The Rheinhessen side have won just one of their last 24 Bundesliga games this season (nine draws, 14 defeats) and have gone nine consecutive games without a win (five draws, four defeats) since the change of manager.

In total, they have just eleven points from 19 league games. In the Bundesliga, the Nullfünfer were only worse in the 2020/21 season (ten points), but then held on to the class in the end under Bo Svensson in the course of a strong catch-up race

No team has scored fewer points at home than Mainz

Now the last remaining Bundesliga team from Rhineland-Palatinate needs a miracle similar to the one they pulled off three years ago. After all, they are already six points behind the first non-relegation place, which is held by today’s visitors from the state capital of all places.

So if Mainz win at home against Union Berlin, FSV would be back in the game in one fell swoop. However, the omens are not really favorable, as the “Nullfünfer” are the weakest team in the entire top tier of German soccer with just five points at home

Mainz is defensively stable, but too tame offensively

With just six home goals and 14 league goals in total, FSV also have the weakest attack in the Bundesliga. The only ray of hope: Since Jan Siewert took over as coach at Bruchweg, things have been noticeably better defensively.

Just seven goals have been conceded in the ten league games under Bo Svensson’s successor, with FSV not conceding more than one goal per game in any of these ten league matches. Conversely, however, because they failed to score on six occasions, the opponent’s one goal was almost always enough to secure a point. Mainz have also lost the last two league games in a row against Frankfurt and Bremen by 0:1…

Predicted Mainz line-up:

Union Berlin – Statistics & current form

1. FC Union Berlin got off to a confident start to the 2023-24 season with two 4-1 victories, including a 4-1 win over their current opponents from Rhineland-Palatinate on August 20, 2023. Since then, however, things have clearly gone downhill for the Köpenickers.

After an unprecedented series of defeats, icon Urs Fischer also had to pack his bags. Under his successor, Nenad Bjelica, the Ironers were at least able to make the leap back to the safety zone. However, just 17 points from 19 league games, which is currently enough for a shaky 15th place in the table, is by far the weakest Bundesliga haul of all time for the capital team.

On average, only one goal per Union Berlin game in 2024

The Berliners recently suffered two consecutive away defeats at Bayern (0:1) and RB Leipzig (0:2). In between, they did manage to narrowly win the basement clash against Darmstadt 98 (1:0). There was also a goalless draw against Freiburg at the start of the year. This means that a total of just four goals were scored in four Bundesliga matches in 2024.

In our opinion, the odds for Mainz v Union Berlin are correspondingly interesting for another match in which a maximum of two goals are scored, especially as the capital city side are also finding it very difficult to break down their opponents’ defensive lines. With just 18 goals from 19 league games, the Köpenickers have the third weakest Bundesliga offense

Union Berlin is the weakest away team in the Bundesliga

In addition, 1. FC Union Berlin has remained very pale away from home. No team has lost as often away from home as the Berliners (eight times) and no team has picked up as few points away from home as the Ironmen (just four).

The only team to have scored fewer away goals in ten away games in the Bundesliga is 1. FC Köln (five). The capital city club must work in particular on converting big chances. Just one in five big chances was converted into a goal in 2023/24. The exact figure of just 21% is the weakest of all 18 Bundesliga clubs.

Predicted line-up of Union Berlin:

Mainz – Union Berlin head-to-head comparison / H2H result

Head to head: 5 – 3 – 7

A total of 15 meetings have taken place between the two teams so far, with 1. FC Union Berlin leading the direct comparison with seven wins. Although the Ironmen have lost four of their first five encounters with 1. FSV Mainz 05, they have only lost one of the last ten meetings. The Köpenickers are currently unbeaten in five matches with the Rheinhessen side (four wins, one draw)

Mainz – Union Berlin betting tip

Although the betting odds for Mainz v Union Berlin lean towards the home side, we believe the visitors from the German capital have a slight advantage, also due to the “head to head” comparison. The team from Köpenick already won the first leg brilliantly with 4:1, but have a disastrous away record. In addition, the club from Rheinhessen have been much more stable defensively of late. They have conceded just seven goals in their last ten league games

The Irons are also really good defensively and have only conceded three more goals in their last five league games. It is therefore very reasonable to predict that Mainz will not score too many goals against Union Berlin at the Mewa Arena.