Another clean sheet for the Rhine Hessians?
With only 21 points from 22 league games, FC St. Pauli is not having a good Bundesliga season. Of the last eight promoted teams that had so few points after 22 match days, seven teams were relegated at the end. Due to several underperforming teams, the Kiezkicker still have a comfortable seven-point lead over the relegation place. So the pressure is not too great if the tip for the brown-whites to win a point against Mainz against St. Pauli does not pan out.
The zero fives, on the other hand, are playing their second-best Bundesliga season of all time with 35 points from 22 games and have kept a clean sheet at home three times in a row. In any case, the forecast for Mainz against St. Pauli is that it won’t be a goal-filled game. Only Bayern have conceded even fewer Bundesliga goals in 2024/25 (19) than Mainz (24) and St. Pauli (25).
While the Rhine Hessians not only defend well but also have a lot of offensive power, as evidenced by a 49 percent conversion rate of big chances (league-wide maximum), at FCSP defensive stability is clearly at the expense of offense. The Kiezkicker have already gone twelve games without scoring a goal (most recently two games in a row) and, with just 18 goals scored, have the weakest attack in the Bundesliga.
Mainz vs. St. Pauli prediction AI
In principle, the supercomputer BETSiE also does not consider the Kiezkicker’s chances of scoring an away goal to be too great, which is why the AI does not contradict our human betting recommendation. The Expected Goals value of just 0.72 that BETSiE calculates for St. Pauli is the lowest xG value of all 18 Bundesliga teams. Even the probability of a win for Holstein Kiel against Leverkusen is rated as slightly higher (0.76).
Nevertheless, the AI finds the greater value in the three-way system. Finally, in the Mainz vs. St. Pauli game, the AI forecast sees a 57.3 percent chance of a home win for the red and whites. However, because the odds of 1.85 for tip 1 only suggest a probability of 54 percent, a positive expected value is ultimately obtained.
Mainz – Statistics & current form
With 35 points from 22 league games, 1. FSV Mainz 05 are putting their second-best Bundesliga season ever on the table and are currently in sixth place in the table. Although it will take a lot of work to qualify for a European competition, it could even be the big hit, given that they are only two points behind fourth place.
Jonathan Burkardt’s side has scored five times, and with 13 goals he is well ahead in the club’s scoring chart. He scored twice in the 3-0 first-leg win in Hamburg. A total of eight different players have scored in the league (the lowest number in the league). However, the Rhine Hessians are still accurate, as evidenced by the strong rate of 49 percent of converted big chances. No other Bundesliga club was more efficient.
Mainz allows only a few out of the game
The big asset of the zero fives, however, is the incredibly stable defense. Only Bayern have conceded fewer goals (19) than the red and whites (24), who in turn have conceded only 13 goals from open play, which is the lowest figure of all 18 Bundesliga clubs.
Against this background, it makes a lot of sense to bet on Mainz against St. Pauli that the FSV will once again keep a clean sheet against the Kiezkicker. Not only did they manage to do that in their last three home games in a row, but also in four of the six league games in the calendar year 2025. Meanwhile, the only ten home goals conceded also correspond to the second-lowest value in the top flight of German football.
Predicted Mainz line-up:
St. Pauli – Statistics & current form
Last summer, FC St. Pauli had to let go of successful and promoted coach Fabian Hürzeler to Brighton with gritted teeth. Under Alexander Blessin, it was then the expected difficult season.
Although the mere 21 points from 22 league games are truly not good, the brown-whites are currently benefiting from the fact that with Heidenheim, Bochum and Kiel, three teams have had a season to forget, so that the Hamburg team still has a cushion of seven points to the relegation place.
St. Pauli is far too tame in offense
The Kiezkicker’s defense has also repeatedly proven its Bundesliga suitability. Only Bayern (19) and Mainz (24) have conceded fewer goals than FCSP (25). However, this stability has mostly been at the expense of their offense, which has scored just 18 goals in 22 league games – the lowest in the league.
It’s no wonder, then, that the odds are clearly against Hamburg at Mainz against St. Pauli, with our bet-at-home app offering odds of 4.60 for an away win.
In 12 of their 22 league games, the brown and whites have failed to score a goal – including 0-2 in Leipzig and 0-1 against Freiburg on the last two matchdays. That is the highest number in the Bundesliga.
Predicted St. Pauli line-up:
Mainz – St. Pauli Head to head / H2H record
Head to head: 8 – 10 – 10
A total of 28 meetings have taken place between the two teams so far, with FC St. Pauli leading the direct comparison by a narrow margin with ten wins. However, if you only look at the Bundesliga, the only three duels between the two teams in the top flight of German football have all been won by 1. FSV Mainz 05, who also won the first leg in Hamburg 3-0.
Mainz – St. Pauli betting tip
The betting providers with a German license see the FSV as having a clear advantage, which is why the betting odds for Mainz against St. Pauli tend towards a home win for the Nullfünfer. No wonder, because while the FCSP have again failed to score twice in a row, thus ending twelve league games in 2024/25 without scoring a goal, the Rhine Hessians, in turn, kept a clean sheet in three consecutive Bundesliga home games. Those who are not afraid of risk can, for example, also bet on the Rhine Hessians’ clean sheet with one of the free bets without a deposit.
The fact is, however, that both teams are very solid defensively, which is why the possibility of a goalless draw should definitely be covered. With this in mind, our prediction for the Mainz v St. Pauli game is another goalless game for the Kiezkicker.
