Does ex-Mainz Schwarz pick up points in Rheinhessen?

The sacking of Thomas Tuchel at Chelsea FC has triggered a domino effect in the coaching business that could possibly reach as far as Mainz. While Brighton coach Graham Potter has been unveiled as the Blues’ new manager, current Zero Five coach Bo Svensson is on a shortlist of potential successors at the Seagulls. However, there is said to be no contact between Brighton and Svensson yet.

In any case, there is not much to suggest that the ex-professional would want a new challenge on the island in the middle of the season. His focus is much more on his FSV’s home game on Friday night against the “old lady” from the capital. If we look at the bookmakers’ odds before the match between Mainz and Hertha, the Rhinelanders are clearly favoured. At the top, the odds are currently 1.75 for a home win.

This relatively one-sided assessment is based, among other things, on the fact that the Red and Whites have not lost to the “Big City Club” in six direct duels. In front of their home crowd, they have even gone without defeat in the past seven matches against the Berliners.

Although the Schwarz-Elf recently recorded four points from two games and thus proved their slightly upward form curve, the capital club is rightly treated as an underdog in our eyes. Consequently, a prediction on a three-goal win for the visitors is not our first betting option in the match between Mainz and Hertha.

Mainz – statistics & current form

Generally, those responsible at FSV Mainz 05 can be satisfied with their club’s start to the season. With ten points after six games, the “Nullfünfer” are in a strong sixth place. They are already five points clear of the relegation zone.

Nevertheless, there was a bitter setback to cope with last weekend, as the Svensson team, playing on a deficit, lost 1:4 in the away match at TSG Hoffenheim and conceded four goals in just one half for the first time since January 2021. This defensive breakdown after the break came as a surprise in that the Red and Whites had not conceded a single goal in their previous five Bundesliga games this season from minute 46 onwards.

Mainz aim to regain old home strength

After three wins in three away games, the Rheinhessen side also lost on the road for the first time in 2022/23. While the weakness in foreign stadiums was still the biggest problem for FSV last season, this problem has now shifted to their own stadium. The Mainz team has only one point in the home table. However, the club from the carnival stronghold has only played two matches in the MEWA Arena – 0:0 against Union and 0:3 against Leverkusen.

Should a bet on double chance X2 pay off in the match between Mainz and Hertha on Friday evening, it would still be the fourth home match in a row that the Svensson team has failed to win. It would be only the third time since 2005/06 and 2020/21 that the Nullfünfer would start a season with three home games in a row without a win.

Considering the good record against the upcoming opponents, the consistent performances, especially in defence, and the fact that FSV is by no means weaker than the “old lady” in terms of quality, we still think the lower odds between Mainz and Hertha are understandable and well playable. However, the expected absence of Jonny Burkardt, who has not yet been able to train with the team after his laceration, weighs heavily. Alexander Hack, meanwhile, will have to serve his red suspension. Stach and Ingvarsten are still question marks.

Predicted line-up of Mainz:
Zentner – Tauer, Bell, Leitsch – Widmer, Kohr, Aaron – J.-S. Lee, Barreiro, Burgzorg – Onisiwo

Last matches played by Mainz:

Bundesliga
10/09/2022 – Hoffenheim 4 – 1 Mainz 05

04/09/2022 – Gladbach 0 – 1 Mainz 05

27/08/2022 – Mainz 05 0 – 3 Bayer Leverkusen

20/08/2022 – Augsburg 1 – 2 Mainz 05

14/08/2022 – Mainz 05 0 – 0 Union Berlin

Hertha – Statistics & current form

For Hertha coach Sandro Schwarz, the upcoming match in Mainz is naturally a very special one. The 43-year-old is not only returning to the city of his birth, but also to the club to which he owes a lot in his career. As a player, he spent nine successful years at FSV, and as a coach he returned first to the youth ranks and then to the professional ranks in 2013. In 79 Bundesliga games, the former teammate of Jürgen Klopp was on the sidelines with the Rheinhessen side from 2017 to 2019, achieving an average of 1.1 points per match.

Since this season, the football coach has been under contract in the capital, where he has not yet been able to bring the aforementioned points average to the pitch at Hertha. After six matchdays, the Berliners have only five points on their account and are thus in 15th place in the intermediate rankings. Another season full of worries is looming. Once again, Hertha are among the hottest candidates for relegation in the Bundesliga.

Is the upward trend coming to an abrupt end?

Over the past two weekends, however, the “old lady” has been able to deliver some positive performances. First, the important away match at FC Augsburg was won 2-0, before a 2-2 draw was fought out against Champions League participants Leverkusen the previous week. For the first time in the calendar year 2022, the “Big City Club” scored at least two goals of its own in two consecutive Bundesliga matches.

After a poor start to the season with only one point from the first four games, the Black Eleven seem to have slowly found their feet. However, this does not change their role as outsiders at the MEWA Arena, as the capital city side have now waited seven Bundesliga games in Mainz for a three-goal win.

In addition, the team structure with the many newcomers still has to prove that it can function over a longer period of time. It is precisely this stabilisation process that has faltered from time to time in the past, especially when it came to teams against which the team was actually expecting something in advance. Sandro Schwarz will have to change the starting line-up in any case, as Suat Serdar will be absent. Selke, Gechter and Nsona are also unavailable. Six players from the probable first eleven were new in the summer. Among them is ex-Mainz player Jean-Paul Boetius.

Predicted line-up of Hertha:
Christensen – Kenny, Uremovic, Kempf, Plattenhardt – Sunjic – Tousart, Boetius – Lukebakio, Kanga, Ejuke

Last matches played by Hertha:

Bundesliga
10/09/2022 – Hertha BSC 2 – 2 Bayer Leverkusen

04/09/2022 – Augsburg 0 – 2 Hertha BSC

27/08/2022 – Hertha BSC 0 – 1 Borussia Dortmund

20/08/2022 – Gladbach 1 – 0 Hertha BSC

13/08/2022 – Hertha BSC 1 – 1 Eintracht Frankfurt

Mainz – Hertha Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

We already discussed the direct comparison of these two teams at the beginning. Mainz were extremely fond of playing Hertha recently. The “Nullfünfer” are already six Bundesliga games without defeat against the “old lady”.

At home, FSV’s unbeaten streak has even reached seven matches. Last season, the Rheinhessen side won their home match against Berlin 4-0, which was both the highest Bundesliga home win against the “Big City Club” and also the highest success under Bo Svensson to date.

Mainz – Hertha Tip

We didn’t get to see much spectacle on the last four Friday nights in the Bundesliga. In the most recent four “opening games” of the respective matchday, only one goal was scored. In our opinion, it is anything but unlikely that there will be a goal festival in the MEWA Arena this coming Friday from 8:30 pm. Three goals in the course of the match are probably the maximum of feelings.

We go along with the bookmakers when it comes to the outcome of the game. For us, too, the Rheinhessen are slightly favoured due to the home advantage, the strong record against the “old lady” and the desire to make amends. Between Mainz and Hertha, the tip on the home win is therefore our first preferred choice.

There are, however, other betting odds in the aforementioned Mainz vs. Hertha match that we should take a closer look at. In order to reduce the risk somewhat, but to remain in the same range in terms of odds, we recommend, for example, the combined bet on 1X & Under 3.5.

For the more risk-averse bettor, on the other hand, a Mainz win without conceding a goal might be worth considering. And who knows, maybe the final score will be 1:0, as it has been on the last few Fridays. In any case, coach Bo Svensson would sign this result immediately. After all, in case of success, a temporary jump to third place beckons.