Mainz in front of the chest, Sofia in the back of the head

Thursday Sofia, Sunday Mainz, Thursday Sofia. Although the new season of competitive matches in Germany is just over two weeks old, the double burden is already hitting Frankfurt Eintracht full on.

The Hessians would have loved to return to the Main metropolis from the Bulgarian capital with a commanding victory, but it was only enough for a sobering 1:1 in the first leg of the Conference League playoff. The task in the return match next Thursday in their own stadium is therefore not completely without danger.

Before coach Dino Toppmöller and Co. turn their focus back to Levski Sofia, the Rhine-Main derby is on the agenda on Sunday afternoon. Only in one of Mainz’s last 15 home games against Frankfurt would the prediction of an away win for the SGE have paid off. Accordingly, the MEWA Arena and also the old Bruchwegstadion have rarely been good venues for the 2022 Europa League winners.

Whether the negative run of the eagle bearers at the small neighbor in the carnival stronghold now continues in the context of the second matchday in the Bundesliga, will certainly also be related to the extent to which the saga around Randal Kolo Muani changes in the coming days / hours.

Mainz – statistics & current form

Besides Randal Kolo Muani, there was another French attacker who made headlines last week. We’re talking about Ludovic Ajorque, who became the first Bundesliga player ever to miss two penalties in one game. It was symptomatic of the performance of the Nullfünfer, who were beaten 4-1 by Union Berlin and are now fighting against the false start in their first home game of the young season.

The fact that FSV had a relatively solid home record last season gives hope. With six wins, six draws and five defeats, a respectable 24 points were recorded in their own stadium. In addition, the club has always scored at least one goal in its last eleven Bundesliga games in front of a home crowd. Twelve consecutive BL home games with at least one own goal would be tantamount to the club record.

Mainzers on course for redemption

It has to be said, however, that the Rheinhessen team lost its ease in the final phase of the last season. The team of coach Bo Svensson has been waiting for six league games for a three-pointer. Five of these six matches have even been lost. After an actually positive preparation with many good test match successes, it will now be exciting to see whether the Red and Whites can return to winning ways at home.

We are confident that last year’s ninth-placed team, which was only four points short of an international berth, can achieve a good result on Sunday and also argue that FSV has only lost one of its 15 home games against Eintracht in the German top flight. Only away in Leipzig do the kickers from the Main metropolis have an even lower win rate to show for it than at the Nullfünfern.

An act of defiance by Svensson’s team is to be expected. The odds of 2.50 on a home win between Mainz and Frankfurt therefore offer attractive value. This can be played at Interwetten.

Predicted lineup of Mainz:

Mainz 05 (Expected lineup) 3-4-1-2

Frankfurt – statistics & current form

For the first time since 2019/20 Eintracht Frankfurt was able to win the opening game of a new Bundesliga season in the previous week. Against the promoted Darmstadt 98, the Eagles struggled to a lackluster 1-0 victory and could once again thank Randal Kolo Muani, who now stands at 27 (!) Scorer points since the start of the season 2022/23 and thus in the highest German league in this period was involved in more goals than any other player.

Currently, it is not yet one hundred percent certain that the international, who was heavily courted by Paris St. Germain, will still wear the SGE jersey on Sunday. Since the transfer fee demand of Hesse is currently still significantly different from the offer of the French title holder, an agreement is likely to drag into the coming week. It would be important for the black-red-white, because also during the week in the 1:1 at Levski Sofia Kolo Muani marked the only Frankfurt goal.

Frankfurt are still a long way from their own top form

Similar to their performance at home against Darmstadt, the 2022 Europa League winners disappointed in the first leg of the Conference League playoffs in Bulgaria, missing the 2:0 several times after taking a somewhat fortunate lead and getting the equalizer with virtually the last action of the game via a Sunday shot. Levski had many more good scoring opportunities, but they remained unused. In a comparable away performance on Sunday in the MEWA Arena, the forecast for a home win between Mainz and Frankfurt could well come true.

Incidentally, this is also supported by the fact that the cup finalist has not won any of the last eleven (!) away games in the Bundesliga. Two wins on the first two matchdays in the top flight have also not been seen for eleven years. Meanwhile, the last coach to start a tenure at Eintracht with three competitive match wins was Ivan Horvat in 1964.

So in a way, Dino Toppmöller could be making history, but he also faces the task of finding a balance between international duty and everyday league life. The SGE only returned from Bulgaria on Friday, and the important return match is already scheduled for Thursday. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that a few percentage points are missing in the back of the head and/or in the legs. So, in our eyes, it is too risky to play the odds on the double chance X2 or even on the away win in the Rhine-Main derby Mainz vs. Frankfurt.

Predicted lineup of Frankfurt:

Eintracht Frankfurt (Expected lineup) 3-4-2-1

Mainz – Frankfurt Direct comparison / H2H balance

30 matches were played between the two clubs in the Bundesliga. The majority of these encounters actually ended in a draw (twelve). There were also nine wins each for Mainz and Frankfurt. Last season, the teams parted with a 1-1 draw at the MEWA Arena.

At Deutsche Bank Park, the Eagle Bearers retained the upper hand with a commanding 3-0 win. Only in four of the most recent ten BL duels would the over 2.5 have gone through, but that could change on Sunday, especially since Eintracht has not been able to keep a single clean sheet away from home in the entire 2022/23 match year. Given this ongoing defensive weakness, it will certainly also be difficult to celebrate only the second Bundesliga away win overall in the 16th attempt at the Nullfünfern.

Mainz – Frankfurt tip

Different FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt have started the new Bundesliga season. The SGE booked three points despite a rather disappointing performance against Darmstadt 98, while the Rheinhessen came under the wheels with 1:4 at Union Berlin. The fact that Mainz is now even seen as a slight favorite against Frankfurt according to the betting odds underlines the fact that there are some statistics that make the pendulum swing more in the direction of FSV on Sunday.

First and foremost, it must be mentioned that Eintracht has now been waiting for a win in eleven (!) away games in a row in the league. 20 times in a row, the 2022 Europa League winners have failed to score zero in opposing stadiums. In addition, Mainz have lost only one of 15 BL home games against the SGE.

If we had to settle on a winner in the three-way market, the choice would therefore fall on the Nullfünfer, especially since the guests from the Main metropolis only returned from Sofia on Friday, may already have the playoff second leg from next Thursday (subconsciously) in mind and the ongoing change posse around Kolo Muani is certainly putting some strain on internal processes.

In addition, we are of the opinion that there will be one or the other goal to see on Sunday. Both teams have very potent offensive lines, but also struggled defensively in their first competitive games. Between Mainz and Frankfurt, betting on the over 2.5 is therefore our first option.